1. March – December 2000 Observed by MOPITT, a Canadian instrument, flying on the TERRA, a US/NASA satellite The First Global Observations of CO from Space

2. Understanding the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants: It’s not just for scientists any more! An OPAR Brown Bag, 10 April 2013 Presented by Terry Keating, PhD Hemispheric Transport and the Ozone NAAQS What is TF HTAP and what is it doing? What is the value-added by TF HTAP for OAR?

3. Implications of Transport for Air Quality Management NAAQS

4. Implications of Transport for Air Quality Management NAAQS

5. Implications of Transport for Air Quality Management What are the magnitudes of each fraction? How will each fraction change in the future? How efficiently can each fraction be mitigated? What is an appropriate level of responsibility for mitigation in the downwind area? (CAA §179b) What policies and programs are needed to bring about mitigation of upwind sources? NAAQS “PRB”

6. Annual 4 th Highest Daily Maximum 8-Hour Average Ozone Absent Anthropogenic Emissions from the United States, Canada, and Mexico Simulated by GEOS-Chem for 2006-2008 (i.e. North American Background, formerly known as PRB) Zhang et al (2011) Atmospheric Environment, 45:6769 The last O 3 NAAQS review considered a level of this metric between 60 and 70 ppb.

7. Seasonal Mean Maximum Daily 8-Hour Average Ozone Simulated by GEOS-Chem “North American Background” (Formerly known as PRB) Canadian & Mexican Influences Influences from Anthropogenic Emissions outside North America From Zhang et al 2011

8. Obs (CASTNet/AQS) AM3/C180 total ozone AM3/C180 Asian ozone Asian pollution contribution to high surface O 3 events, confounding to attain tighter standard in WUS June 21 2010 June 22 2010 Max daily 8-h average Lin et al 2012

9. The Asian enhancement increases for total O 3 in the 70-80 ppb range over Southern California, Arizona 25th Lin et al 2012

10. Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution An expert group established in 2004 by the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) Co-Chaired by the European Commission (Dr. Frank Dentener, Joint Research Centre) & the United States (Dr. Terry Keating, EPA/OAR) Phase 1: 2005-2010, culminated in first comprehensive assessment of HTAP Phase 2: 2011-2016, working to improve the resolution of our assessment www.htap.org What is the TF HTAP?

11. Mandate from the LRTAP Convention What is the TF HTAP? Improve the understanding of the transport of air pollution across the Northern Hemisphere. Air pollution includes: – Ozone and its precursors, including NOx, VOC, CO, and methane – Particulate Matter and its components, including black carbon – Mercury – Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) Assess potential emission mitigation options available inside and outside the UNECE region Assess the impacts of the options on regional and global air quality, public health, ecosystems, and near-term climate change Work in collaboration with other groups inside and outside the Convention.

12. 12 What is the TF HTAP? Red border indicates U.S. participation.

13. Parties to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution LRTAP was formed in 1979 under the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe.

14. Parties to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution And Other Participants in TF HTAP Approximately 750 individual scientists have taken part in at least one TF HTAP activity since 2005. Less than 10% have received specific funding support from EPA or EC.

15. There is a large spread across models. The ensemble mean generally captures observed monthly mean surface O 3 but there are notable biases. Simulation of O 3 is generally good in early spring and late fall when intercontinental transport is largest. Mediterranean Central Europe < 1km Central Europe > 1km NE USA SW USASE USA Japan Mountainous W USA Great Lakes USA Monthly Mean Surface Ozone (ppb) HTAP 2010 Findings Can current global models adequately simulate intercontinental transport of ozone?

16. NA EU EA SA HTAP 2010 Findings Source-Receptor Sensitivity Simulations: Base Year 2001 Decrease emissions of precursors in each region by 20% Compare effects of different combinations of precursors Approximately 30 modeling groups from around the world participated Do current global models produce similar estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships?

17. Ozone Source-Receptor Analysis under HTAP change in monthly mean O 3 due to 20% reduction of NO X, VOC, and CO emissions 24 (+8) models contribute results; 14 models complete full set N. American Emissions European Emissions South Asian Emissions East Asian Emissions HTAP 2010 Findings

18. How has surface O 3 changed? How well does this match observations? 1974-2004 trend: Obs 0.15 ppb/yr, Mod 0.13 ppb/yr 1989-2007 trend: Obs 0.17 ppb/yr, Mod -0.03 ppb/yr Wild, et al 2013 HTAP 2010 Findings

19. Role of CH 4 in Future O 3 Scenarios O 3 Change in 4 RCP Scenarios CH 4, Regional, & Imported Components of O 3 Change in “High” Scenario Components of O 3 Change in “Low” Scenario Linearized results of 6 models: CH 4 is an important determinant of future O 3 levels, potentially offsetting benefits of regional controls. HTAP 2010 Findings

20. Work Plan for 2012-2016 The focus of the Task Force’s work remains on characterizing regional vs. extra-regional influences on air quality and its impacts. While HTAP 2010 presented the significance of intercontinental transport with very coarse resolution, our goal now is to improve the resolution of that picture by linking analyses at the global and regional scale. Overall Objectives of Work Plan 1.Deliver Policy Relevant Information to the LRTAP Convention, Other Multi-Lateral Forums, and National Governments 2.Improve Our Scientific Understanding of Air Pollution at the Global to Hemispheric Scale 3.Build a Common Understanding by Engaging Experts Inside and Outside the LRTAP Convention Current Work Plan

21. Themes of Cooperative Activities Under TF HTAP Current Work Plan 1. Emissions & Projections 2. Source/Receptor & Source Apportionment 3. Model/Observation & Process Evaluation 4. Impacts on Health, Ecosystems, & Climate 5. Impact of Climate Change on Pollution 6. Data Network & Analysis Tools Policy-Relevant Science Products & Outreach > 35 Work Packages identified, each with a volunteer leader.

22. Emissions & Projections Current Work Plan 22 2008 & 2010 Global Emissions Mosaics (WP1.1) – JRC is compiling a new global emissions consistent with regional modeling inventories being used in the United States, Europe, and Asia. – Expecting model ready emissions information by July 1, 2013. HTAPv2

23. 2010-2030 Emissions Scenarios (WP1.2) – IIASA is developing 3 benchmark scenarios with explicit air pollution controls: Current Legislation, No Further Control, Maximum Feasible Reduction – Based on IEA energy projections, OAP has provided input on CH 4 emissions – Will serve as basis for discussion about available control strategies Emissions & Projections Current Work Plan

24. Source-Receptor Analyses Common Specification of Regions in a 2 Tier System Status of HTAP Efforts Tier 1 = 16 regions Tier 2 = 60 regions

25. Source-Receptor Analyses Nesting of Regional Analyses Within Global Analyses – Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) Phase II, covering regional domains in North America and Europe Led by Christian Hogrefe (ORD) and Stefano Galmarini (JRC) – Model Inter-Comparison Study – Asia Phase III, covering regional domains in Asia Led by Greg Carmichael (U Iowa), Zifa Wang (Chinese Academy of Sciences), and Hajime Akimoto (Asian Center for Air Pollution Research, Japan) Comparison of Source Apportionment and Sensitivity Techniques Led by Daven Henze (U Colorado) – Emission Perturbation Analysis – Adjoint Modeling – Pollutant Tagging – Artificial Tracers Current Work Program

26. 2008-2010 Emissions Global Base Modeling Regional Base Modeling Method Comparison Parameterization Model-Obs Analysis Impact Assessments 2010-2030 Scenarios Impacts of Mitigation Deliver July 1 Deliver July? Start Sept Start Oct Start Jan 2014 Start Oct-Jan Start July Global – Regional Perturbations Start Jun 2014 Start Oct-Jan Work Flow and Timeline Workshop? Current Work Program

27. Model-Observation Evaluations Case Study on Import to Western North America (WP3.2) Led by Owen Cooper (NOAA) Status of HTAP Efforts

28. Impact Assessment Methods Human Health Effects – Led by Jason West (UNC) with Susan Anenberg (EPA/OAR/OAQPS) – Building upon the Global Burden of Disease Study Ecosystem Effects – Led by Lisa Emberson (SEI-York) – Building upon the work of LRTAP Working Group on Effects Climate Effects – Led by Bill Collins (Reading Univ, UK) – Moving beyond radiative forcing and global temperature changes Proposed Workshop on Impact Assessment Methods – Pune, India? – Potential to link to Male Declaration, ABC-Asia, CCAC, and other UNEP activities Status of HTAP Efforts

30. Value-Added of TF HTAP for OAR Filling Gaps in U.S. Program E.g., global emissions inventories and air pollution control scenarios Value of the Model Ensemble and Community Effort A single model will give you an answer, but you don’t know how good it is. Approach and results have gone through some peer vetting in an open process. Ability to Focus Research on Policy-Relevant Questions The science community wants to be useful to the policy community. Products have many uses at both the global and regional scale. E.g., Arctic transport, data networking, observational data collections Low Investment, High Yield 10:1 payoff for meeting costs. 3:1 leveraging for infrastructure investments. Building relationships and technical capacities. Country to Country, Science to Policy, Scientist to Scientist Creating a Foundation for Decision-making and Action Why TF HTAP?

31. Additional Slides on O 3 Trends Visit www.htap.org for more information.www.htap.org

32. Summer 1990-2010 Rural ozone trends significant increase insignificant increase significant decrease insignificant decrease Cooper, O. R., et al. (2012), Long- term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, 1990–2010, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307

33. Spring 1990-2010 Rural ozone trends significant increase insignificant increase significant decrease insignificant decrease Cooper, O. R., et al. (2012), Long- term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, 1990–2010, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307

34. Free tropospheric ozone trend above western North America in April & May 1984-2011 All available data above western North America, regardless of transport history, including observations by ballons (sondes) and commercial and research aircraft. All measurements were made between 3.0 – 8.0 km above sea level during April-May. Ozone above the surface has increased by 29% from 1984-2011. Cooper, O. R., et al. (2012), Long-term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, 1990–2010, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307 95% 67 % 50% 33% 5 %

35. significant increase insignificant increase significant decrease insignificant decrease Surface ozone trends, beginning 1990-1999 and ending 2000-2010. All trends are from the peer-reviewed literature. From Owen Cooper (NOAA) for IPCC AR5

36. Average NO 2 Column From SpaceApril-May 1996-1998 (GOME) From Cooper, 2013

37. Average NO 2 Column From Space Seasonal Average NO 2 Column (Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct) with Annual Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions (in black) from 1995 to 2011 April-May 2009-2011 (SCHIAMACHY) From Cooper, 2013