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Population and Settlement

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1 Population and Settlement
Population Change Population and Settlement Image: Courtesy of NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio. This image is created by Craig Mayhew and Robert Simmon from data provided by Christopher Elvidge of the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center.

2 Flash activity (these activities are not editable)
World population change The demographic transition model Population structure Managing population change Contents For more detailed instructions, please see the Getting Started presentation. Icons: Flash activity (these activities are not editable) Web addresses Printable activity Teacher’s notes included in the Notes Page Extension activity

3 Key questions: World population change
By the end of this chapter you should have considered these key themes and questions: How is world population changing? How is the world’s population distributed? How can population change be calculated? What factors affect birth and death rates?

4 Key demographic terminology
Teacher’s note: This click to link activity is printable either as a solved answer sheet (when the print button is pressed after the activity has been solved) or as an unsolved worksheet at any other time. Students should already be familiar with these terms. It should be emphasized that crude birth rate and death rate is when the rates are averaged out over the whole population regardless of age or sex. As an example of fertility rate, the UK’s is 1.66 children according to the 2009 estimate. Statistics can be found at this address: This weblink was working correctly at the time of publication. Boardworks takes no responsibility for the content of external sites. The replacement level is widely accepted at about 2.1 children in most industrialized countries, so people are not having enough children to replace the number of women in the population that are necessary to keep reproduction levels constant. In developing countries the replacement rate is higher due to higher mortality rates, particularly infant mortality. 4

5 World population growth by region
Teacher’s note: Students should be able to answer questions about the graph. Possible questions include: Describe the changes in world population growth. Compare the growth rates of the developed continents and the developing continents. What is a weakness of this data? Students are likely to suggest that it shows only continental values – individual countries will vary a lot within the continent. The statistics were obtained from this address: They can be found in Table 2 on page 6. This weblink was working correctly at the time of publication. Boardworks takes no responsibility for the content of external sites. 5

6 Where are all the people?
The global population is not spread evenly. Some countries are much more densely populated than others. This map of the world represents each country in terms of its population rather than its area. Although it is clearly recognizable, there are also some obvious differences. Teacher’s note: Students should recognize that although they are both large countries, China and India have by far the largest populations. On the other hand, Russia and Canada are the two largest countries in the world, but have relatively small populations, so they are sparsely populated. Western Europe is also heavily populated, as it is shown to take up a larger area than the larger continents of North America and South America and roughly the same area as Africa, which it is also much smaller than. Even within Europe, France is nearly twice the size of the UK, but has a slightly smaller population, so the UK is much more densely populated. Image: © Bettina Speckmann and Marc van Kreveld What does this map show about the distribution of the global population? 6

7 Calculating population change
Population change is a measure of how much a country’s population has increased or decreased, usually over one year. Population change can be expressed as a simple figure. It is calculated using this formula: ( ) ( ) number of births number of deaths number of immigrants number of emigrants + The UK’s population change is calculated as: (748,600 – 572,200) + (561,000 – 387,000) = 350,400 Teacher’s note: The statistics were obtained from this address: They are for 2006 and can be found in Table B1 on page 97. As an extension activity, you could ask students to perform their own calculations for the population change of the UK for previous years, using the information provided in Table B1 on page 97 of the weblink. This weblink was working correctly at the time of publication. Boardworks takes no responsibility for the content of external sites. It can be also be expressed as a percentage growth rate: (population change ÷ total population) × The UK’s percentage growth rate is calculated as: 350,400 ÷ 60,587,300 = 0.58% 7

8 Factors affecting birth and death rates
Teacher’s note: Students should be encouraged to explain why they have chosen each box. They should also be able to link together the factors, e.g. the education of girls and young women leads to women pursuing careers. For this reason, some answers could arguably be placed in more than one category. A high infant mortality rate means that there needs to be a high birth rate to replace those who die, but it also means that there is clearly a high death rate. The idea of change over time could also be emphasized in order to lead into work on the Demographic Transition Model. Photos: three babies © Monkey Business Images, shutterstock.com; sleeping baby © munchkinmoo, shutterstock.com; graves © Brittany Courville, shutterstock.com; coffin © WizData, inc., shutterstock.com 8

9 Key questions: The demographic transition model
By the end of this chapter you should have considered these key themes and questions: What is the demographic transition model and what is its purpose? What are the stages of the demographic transition model and how do they apply to different countries? What relevance does the demographic transition model have today? 9

10 The demographic transition model
Teacher’s note: At stage 1 there is a high birth and death rate, so the population remains low. As the death rate falls in stage 2, the population begins to grow rapidly. The population growth slows in stage 3 as the birth rate falls. At stage 4 the birth rate and death rate have levelled out once more so the population remains stable. 10

11 Applying the DTM to countries
Teacher’s note: Students should be able to describe the process of the DTM in detail and explain the reasons for the changing birth rates and death rates at each stage and for each country. It is important to emphasize that countries move through each stage to reach the next and that previous developments are built upon. The statistics for the Rikbaktsa tribe were obtained from this address: Please note that the website is in Portuguese, although the population figures are clear and the webpage is comprehensible if put through an Internet translator. The statistics for Ethiopia were obtained from this address: The statistics for Costa Rica were obtained from this address: The statistics for the USA were obtained from this address: The population growth rates are 2009 estimates; the birth and death rates are 2008 estimates. These weblinks were working correctly at the time of publication. Boardworks takes no responsibility for the content of external sites. Photos: Rikbaktsa male © Valter Campanato/ABr. This image is reproduced under the terms of the Creative Commons License. A copy of the license can be read at this address: Ethiopian family © magnusfranklin. This image is reproduced under the terms of the Creative Commons License. A copy of the license can be read at this address: Costa Rican schoolchildren © FirstBaptistNashville. This image is reproduced under the terms of the Creative Commons License. A copy of the license can be read at this address: American high school students © Orange Line Media, shutterstock.com 11

12 Population change in a country over time
In theory, different countries should travel through the stages of the DTM as they become more developed. The UK and Sweden are good examples, demonstrated by the falling birth and death rates on the graph that conform to the DTM pattern. Teacher’s note: Emphasis should be place on the developed nature of the country and how the pattern follows that stated by the DTM as well as the time scales. Students may point out the fluctuations in this graph. One clear example of this is the high death rate around 1775 which could be put down to infectious disease, such as smallpox. Another potential cause might be alcoholism, as the Swedish Government set up its own distilleries to produce spirits for revenue in This information was taken from H.O. Lancaster, Expectations of Life: A Study in the Demography, Statistics and History of World Mortality (Springer, 1990). Image: © Komencanto. This image is reproduced under the terms of the Creative Commons License. A copy of the license can be read at this address: Do you think all countries will follow the DTM pattern? 12

13 A fifth stage? Teacher’s note: Students should be able to predict the shape of stage 5 based on the information given, i.e. a declining birth rate and increasing death rate will lead to a decrease in population. You could also ask students whether they think this stage is appropriate to the model and to justify their argument. 13

14 Population decline in Italy
Italy is a good example of the fifth stage of the DTM because its population is in decline. Population growth rate: –0.047% Birth rate: 8.36 per 1000 population Death rate: 10.61 per 1000 population Italy has an ageing population, so has a higher death rate, but the main reason for the declining population is a falling birth rate, due to an increase in the number of working women and the number of women getting married later. Teacher’s note: Many countries in eastern Europe are suffering from a population decline due to falling birth rates and an increase in life expectancy. Emigration also plays a role here, and many countries in western Europe would also have declining populations without international immigration. Japan has a declining population due to a low birth rate and a very low level of immigration. Some countries, such as Zimbabwe and Swaziland also have declining populations due to an increasing death rate caused by HIV and AIDS. The statistics were obtained from this address: The population growth rate is a 2009 estimate; the birth and death rates are 2008 estimates. This weblink was working correctly at the time of publication. Boardworks takes no responsibility for the content of external sites. Photo: © ezioman. This image is reproduced under the terms of the Creative Commons License. A copy of the license can be read at this address: Other countries are also suffering from a population decline. What other factors might cause this? 14

15 What affects the DTM? How could the events in these photographs impact on a country's passage through the demographic transition model? Teacher’s note: The Chinese child has a sign giving information about China’s one child policy layered on top of it. The sign reads ‘For a prosperous, powerful nation and a happy family, please use birth planning’. The policy was introduced in 1979 as a government bid to control the population. Students should realize that this is artificially limiting the birth rate and that it must be well below the required replacement rate for a stable population. This will reduce the population more quickly than if the crude birth rate had been allowed to reduce naturally alongside increasing development. Further information on China’s anti-natal policy is given on slides 30–31. The man is holding his American naturalization certificate. Immigration in the USA has a big impact on the total population growth, as well as the differences in crude birth rate and death rate. The DTM pattern that the USA follows will therefore not mirror European countries exactly. The poster gives information about AIDS in Laos in order to educate the population. In some countries in Africa and south-east Asia, AIDS may have reversed any reductions in crude death rate and caused a dramatic increase, especially amongst the young working population. All of these things affect the DTM and mean that a country’s development might not always follow the DTM. They demonstrate that population change is due to more than just crude birth rate and death rate. Further information on the weaknesses of the DTM and its relevance today is given on slide 16. Photos: Chinese girl © RightIndex. This image is reproduced under the terms of the Creative Commons License. A copy of the license can be read at this address: Chinese one child policy sign © Venus. This image is reproduced under the terms of the Creative Commons License. A copy of the license can be read at this address: American naturalization ceremony © Prince Roy. This image is reproduced under the terms of the Creative Commons License. A copy of the license can be read at this address: AIDS education poster in Laos. This image is in the public domain as Laos has no copyright laws 15

16 Relevance and weaknesses of the DTM
Teacher’s note: Students will likely conclude that the demographic transition model does have several weaknesses. However, it does still form a good basis for predicting countries’ population development, it just does not take into account the effect that other factors can have on the birth rate, the death rate and the speed at which change happens. Photos: Europe from space © Joao Virissimo, shutterstock.com; industry in Seoul, South Korea © grafica, shutterstock.com; Hispanic nurse © Rob Marmion, shutterstock.com; AIDS awareness ribbon © Pablo Eder, shutterstock.com; Chinese mother and baby © munchkinmoo, shutterstock.com; medication © serg64, shutterstock.com 16

17 Key questions: Population structure
By the end of this chapter you should have considered these key themes and questions: What are population pyramids and how are they used? What is the age and population structure of the UK? What impacts do ageing and youthful populations have on a country? How does migration affect population change? How has migration affected the UK’s population?

18 Key population terminology
Teacher’s note: This click to link activity is printable either as a solved answer sheet (when the print button is pressed after the activity has been solved) or as an unsolved worksheet at any other time. Students should already be familiar with these terms. 18

19 What is happening to the USA’s population?
Population structure Population structure is the numbers in, and distribution of, different age groups in a population. Those who are aged 0–15 and those who are aged over 65 are the dependent population. The active population is those aged 16–64, who are expected to be in employment. The graph shows the USA’s population structure as percentages of dependent and active population. Teacher’s note: The USA has an ageing population, as shown by the rising percentage of the population aged over 65. The percentage of the young dependent population is predicted to fall slightly, which means that when it is combined with the old dependent population, the active population is set to decrease in size. The result of this is an increased pressure on a proportionally smaller active population to support the proportionally larger dependent population in terms of upbringing and pensions. Please note that in some cases the young dependent population is regarded as those aged 0–14 and the active population is aged 15–65. This is the case for the graph here. The statistics were obtained from this address: The required information was input into the Population by Age and Sex table. This weblink was working correctly at the time of publication. Boardworks takes no responsibility for the content of external sites. What is happening to the USA’s population? 19

20 What shape do you think each DTM stage will have?
Population pyramids Population structure can also be shown using a graph called a population pyramid. It is made of two bar graphs showing the number of males and females in each five-year age group. The shape of the pyramid is affected by the crude birth and death rates in each age group. Population pyramids can also be usefully applied to the different stages of the DTM. As birth and death rates change over time through the different stages of the DTM, the number of people in different age groups in a population changes. Teacher’s note: Students may be able to guess at the shapes of population pyramids for each stage of the DTM. Further information on population pyramids and the DTM is given on slides 21–22. The statistics used for the population pyramid were obtained from this address: You may wish to show students an animated population pyramid showing population change in China over a 100-year period. You can view this at: These weblinks were working correctly at the time of publication. Boardworks takes no responsibility for the content of external sites. Image: © fargomeD. This image is reproduced under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License. A copy of the license can be read at this address: What shape do you think each DTM stage will have? 20

21 Population structure and the DTM
Teacher’s note: This drag and drop activity is printable either as a solved answer sheet (when the print button is pressed after the activity has been solved) or as an unsolved worksheet at any other time. Stage 1 has a wide base, due to a high birth rate, but a narrow peak, due to a high death rate, and a concave shape, due to a low population. Stage 2 has a wide base, due to the high birth rate, and a narrow peak with straight sides, reflecting the falling death rate and expanding population. Stage 3 has a narrower base, reflecting the falling birth rate, and a concave shape, due to the lower death rate and a slowdown in population expansion. Stage 4 has a narrow base and a rounder concave shape, due to a low birth rate and death rate, and a stable population. Stage 5 has a narrower base, due to a declining birth rate, and a wider peak, reflecting an ageing population. The peak rises at each stage, reflecting a general change in life expectancy as countries develop. Photo: © stock.xchng 21

22 Population pyramids of DTM countries
Teacher’s note: The statistics used for the population pyramids were obtained from this address: This weblink was working correctly at the time of publication. Boardworks takes no responsibility for the content of external sites. Images: © fargomeD. This image is reproduced under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License. A copy of the license can be read at this address: 22

23 Population structure of the UK
The UK has an ageing population. Although the population exceeds 60 million, birth rates are falling and the proportion of elderly dependents is rising. Like much of western Europe, the UK is at stage 4 of the DTM. Teacher’s note: The UK’s population is million, its birth rate is per 1000 population and its death rate is per 1000 population. Its population growth rate is 0.279%, yet the fertility level is 1.66, well below the replacement rate. The reason for the UK’s population increase is migration. In 2006, 561,000 migrants entered the UK. Further information about migration is given on slides 26–28. The population statistics were obtained from this address: The migration statistics were obtained from this address: They can be found in Table B1 on page 97. The statistics used for the bar chart were obtained from this address: The statistics used for the population pyramid were obtained from this address: These weblinks were working correctly at the time of publication. Boardworks takes no responsibility for the content of external sites. What is responsible for the UK’s population increase? 23

24 Impacts of an ageing population
Photos: grandfather and granddaughter © Yuri Arcurs, shutterstock.com; Houses of Parliament © kmiragaya, shutterstock.com; pound coins and notes © c., shutterstock.com 24

25 Impacts of a youthful population
Teacher’s note: Ask students to identify the factors that could cause high birth rates: educational standards, status of women in society, influence of religion, children as a source of income, compensation for high infant mortality, lack of access to family planning. Photos: Israeli school © hoyasmeg. This image is reproduced under the terms of the Creative Commons License. A copy of the license can be read at this address: Turkish parliament interior © Ankaralı Turgut. This image is reproduced under the terms of the Creative Commons License. A copy of the license can be read at this address: Middle Eastern currency © Aron Brand, shutterstock.com 25

26 Migration and population change
Net migration is the difference between those emigrating away from a country to live in another and those immigrating into the country. It can be a positive or negative figure. immigration – emigration = net migration Migration contributes to overall population change, as demonstrated by the population change calculation. Teacher’s note: The image on this slide shows a Mexican migrant carrying out some work on a path or road. Photo: © 2009 Jupiterimages Corporation In some countries, e.g. the USA, migration has a huge impact on population change. 26

27 Impacts of migration: labour
Teacher’s note: This drag and drop activity is printable either as a solved answer sheet (when the print button is pressed after the activity has been solved) or as an unsolved worksheet at any other time. 27

28 Impacts of migration: interrelations
Teacher’s note: This drag and drop activity is printable either as a solved answer sheet (when the print button is pressed after the activity has been solved) or as an unsolved worksheet at any other time. 28

29 Map showing the origin of immigrants to the UK
Migration in the UK 7.5% of the UK’s population were born abroad, approximately 4.3 million people. Half of the UK’s population growth between 1991 and 2001 was due to immigration. Without it, the UK’s population would be in decline. Immigration to the UK has increased since the 1990s, particularly since However, emigration has also risen over this period, though net migration levels have risen overall. Teacher’s note: Immigration levels have risen chiefly because of the expansion of the European Union (EU) in All members of the EU have the right to free movement of people between the different countries, so with the enlargement many people had the opportunity to enter the UK. One of the biggest migrant groups in the UK is from Poland, which was one of the new member states. The right to free movement of people also explains the large number of French, German and Italians in the UK, as they have all been EU members since its inception. Large numbers of immigrants to the UK are from countries with historical links to it through the British Empire and the Commonwealth. These include Ireland, South Africa, India, Pakistan, the Caribbean, Australia and the USA. Image: map showing the UK’s foreign-born population by country of birth. This image was released into the public domain by its author. Map showing the origin of immigrants to the UK What reasons are there for the migration trends and the pattern of immigration shown by the map? 29

30 Key questions: Managing population change
By the end of this chapter you should have considered these key themes and questions: What are anti-natal and pro-natal policies? Why has China implemented an anti-natal policy and what are its effects? How do pro-natal policies vary in Singapore and Italy? 30

31 Anti-natal one child policy in China
An anti-natal policy is one which is introduced by the government in order to curb population growth. It works by taking measures to reduce birth rate. China introduced a one child policy in 1979, limiting families to having only one child. It affects 35.9% of the population, predominantly those in urban areas. Other measures introduced to reduce birth rate include: Teacher’s note: The sign in the photo is a village bulletin board listing public affairs. It includes information on family planning, including the numbers of women of child bearing age, the names of all recent mothers and whether the birth was part of the one child policy. Photos: mother and baby © eprom, shutterstock.com; village bulletin board in Sichuan province, China containing information on village affairs, including recent births and the number of women in their reproductive years. This image was released into the public domain by its author. increased education opportunities wider availability of contraception legalized abortion forced sterilizations. 31

32 Impacts of China’s one child policy
China’s one child policy is controversial both within and outside China and has many impacts. These include: draconian enforcement a lack of freedom of choice infanticide and the abandonment of girls a disproportionate number of males a lack of extended family in the future a rural/urban divide (rural residents are allowed a second child with permission) Teacher’s note: Students will have their own opinions on the effectiveness of the policy and the moral questions it raises, including the lack of human rights involved and the strict enforcement of the policy. The Chinese authorities claim that the policy has prevented over 250 million births in its first twenty years and that it has reduced social, economic and environmental problems. However, it may have long term social and economic consequences as a result of the impacts. The disproportionate number of males (117 males to every 100 females in 2000) means that the future will see a further drop in fertility rate and a lack of women for men to marry. China has a tradition of favouring sons, which has further impacted on the gender imbalance as baby girls are either killed or abandoned. The government sign in the photo reads ‘It is forbidden to discriminate against, mistreat or abandon baby girls.’ A lack of extended family has potential major social implications as family units will be small and one child may end up caring for two parents and four grandparents. This also has an economic impact in that a smaller active population will be supporting an increasing elderly dependent one, so there will be fewer resources being produced. There have also been some more recent changes to the policy that have relaxed it. Rural residents are allowed a second child with government permission. Couples without siblings may also have two children with permission to stop in order to stop the birth rate reducing too dramatically. The policy also only applies to the Han Chinese ethnic group. Photo: A message from the government in Sichuan province, China which warns that it is forbidden to discriminate against, mistreat or abandon baby girls. This image was released into the public domain by its author. reduced population growth has impacted on resources. Do you think the policy is effective? What might be the long term consequences of these impacts? 32

33 Pro-natal policies Teacher’s note: As an extension activity, you could ask students to research Singapore’s anti-natal policies from the 1960s–1980s. In the 1960s the government saw rapid population growth as a threat to resources and employment so introduced the Family Planning and Population Board. The government used the slogan ‘Please stop at two!’ Measures that were introduced to reduce the birth rate included: legalized abortion; voluntary sterilization, which used the incentives of seven days sick leave and priority housing and education; population disincentives to make having children more expensive, e.g. mothers received no maternity pay for their 3rd and 4th children, increasing fees at hospitals, only children received priority at top primary schools. Photos: group of babies © Andrejs Pidjass, shutterstock.com; Singapore schoolchildren © mailer_diablo. This image is reproduced under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License. A copy of the license can be read at this address: Swedish mother and baby © * _fillippo_ *. This image is reproduced under the terms of the Creative Commons License. A copy of the license can be read at this address: 33

34 Summary quiz Teacher’s note: Answers: World population change:
The birth rate falls 2.1 children (Number of births – number of deaths) + (number of immigrants – number of emigrants) The number of babies, out of every 1000 who are born each year, who die before they are one year old Asia Improved sanitation schemes The Demographic Transition Model: USA The death rate falls, leading to a rapid increase in population It has brought about much quicker changes in birth and death rates than predicted by the model Costa Rica Greater numbers of elderly people are living longer but eventually dying It has included a fifth stage Population structure: Declining tax base due to a declining active population South American countries Those aged 0–15 years and 65+ years old One group of immigrants dominating an area of a town or city, causing segregation People working below their capacity Population structure Managing population change: One child policy ‘Have three if you can afford it’ slogan One which is introduced by the government in order to curb population growth Free school places to children of female graduates 1980s More girls than boys

35 Glossary Teacher’s note: To test students’ understanding of the topic, you may wish to ask them what each word in the glossary means before pressing to reveal the definition. Alternatively, you may wish to set students an extension or homework activity to research and define the terms. The definitions provided here can be used as an additional point of reference once they have completed the task.


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