1. ADAPTATION OPTIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON WATER RESOURCES IN AFRICA. Jonathan I. Matondo UNIVERSITY OF SWAZILAND

2. LAYOUT OF THE PRESENTATION Introduction Current status of climate change and variability Impact of climate change and variability on –water resources in Africa –Social, economic and environmental consequences

3. LAYOUT OF THE PRESENTATION CONT.. Adaptation options –Short-term adaptation options –Long term adaptation options –The need for regional cooperation Water policy proposal for Africa

4. INTRODUCTION Climate will always change due to natural forcing of eccentricity The natural green house gases have kept the earth’s atmosphere some 30 o Celsius hotter, than it would otherwise be, making it possible for humans and other living things to exist on earth. The global green house gas emissions due to anthropogenic activities have increased since pre-industrial times

5. INTRODUCTION CONT.. Temperature across Africa are expected to increase ranging from 0.2 o C per decade (low scenario) to more than 0.5 o C per decade (high scenario) This warming is greatest over the interior of semi-arid margins of the Sahara, central and southern Africa.

6. CURRENT STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY Mean annual rainfall has decreased by 20–49% in the Sahel between the periods 1931–1960 and 1968–1997 generally a mean annual rainfall decrease ranging from 5–10% across the rest of the continent has been reported. Africa has experienced at least one major episode in each decade in the past 30 years. In Eastern Africa there were serious droughts in 1973-74, 1984-85, 1987, 1992-94, 1999-2000, 2003 and 2005.

7. CURRENT STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY CONT.. The last drought in the Sahelian persisted for decades, from 1972-73 to 1983-84. It caused major damage to the environment and loss to human life. In Southern Africa, sever droughts as recorded in 1967 – 73, 1981-83, 1986/87, 1991/92, 1993/94, 2001/02, 2003 and 2005/06).

8. 190019201940196019802000 Niger; Change ? Rapid/gradual Persisted Blue Nile; Gradual Decadel variability Lake Victoria; Rapid Slow return ?

9. CURRENT STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY CONT.. West Africa has also experienced droughts in the 1980s and 1990s, and 2000s The continent has also experienced severe floods. –The floods of 1999-2000 in Nigeria, South Africa and Mozambique –The floods of 2003 and 2006 in East Africa –The floods of 2008 in Southern Africa

10. : Gradual disappearance of Mt. Kilimanjaro glaciers

11. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON WATER RESOURCES GCMs simulations predict –A 10 to 20 per cent drop in rainfall in Northwestern and Southern Africa by 2070 –River water levels are expected to drop below 50 per cent. –Table 2 shows precipitation and runoff changes due to climate change.Table 2 230 million of Africa’s population will be facing water scarcity by 2025 460 million people in water stressed Countries

12. Table 2: Estimates of range of changes (in percent) in precipitation, potential evaporation, and runoff in African rivers (IPCC, 2001; Matondo et al. 2004; IPCC, 2007)

13. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND THE ENVIRONMENT Reduced precipitation is expected to cause a decline in agricultural production thus food insecurity. Globally, 80-120 million people are at risk of hunger; 70 to 80 per cent of these are expected to be in Africa, by 2080. Most rivers in Africa are International. The reduction in the river flows is potential for conflict. Due to expected sea level rise –It is estimated that 70 million people will be at risk from coastal flooding by 2080 –large cities such as Banjul, Lagos, Alexandria, Dar es Salaam, Cape Town, Maputo etc. could be in a verge of being submerged

14. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND THE ENVIRONMENT CONT.. –Areas considered now dry humid, semi-arid and arid will become semi-arid, arid and desert respectively under expected climate change. –People in drought prone areas of southern Africa to abandon agriculture permanently in the next 50 years. –The frequency of extreme events (droughts and Floods) are expected to increase This will increase the damage to infrastructures, the environment and loss to human life. This will also increase the financial burden to most African governments.

15. SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES CONT..

16. FLOODING IN WESTERN KENYA

17. ADAPTATION OPTIONS Short-term adaptation options –Efficient use of existing water resources –Recycling of wastewater –Rainwater harvesting –Use of groundwater –Implementation of IWRM Long-term adaptation options –Construction of storage and inter-basin water transfers –Building desalination plants

18. EFFICIENT WATER USE (MBULUZI CATCHMENT SWAZILAND)

19. RAIN WATER HARVESTING I Sand Dam filled with water in Muthetheni, Machakos district Kenya

20. RAINWATER HARVESTING CONT.. Sand dam in Kenya

21. RAINWATER HARVESTING CONT…

22. ADAPTATION OPTIONS CONT.. Need for cooperation –Africa has 61 international river basins shared by two or more countries. Therefore, there is a great need of cooperation among riparian states in order to ensure that the available resources are used beneficially and equitably. The planning, development and management of shared water courses requires the development of water sharing agreements/treaties. The implementation of IWRM requires the formation of river basin institutions and agreements.

24. ADAPTATION OPTIONS CONT.. Need for cooperation –Examples ) SADC Protocol on shared water courses Senegal River agreement between Mali, Mauritania and Senegal Nile river basin initiative Komati river (South Africa, Swaziland and Mozambique

25. ADAPTATION OPTIONS CONT.. Need for cooperation cont.. –The benefits of Regional cooperation are: Cooperation can enable better environmental management, providing benefits to the river, and underpinning all other benefits that can be derived. Cooperation can yield major benefits from the river including increased irrigated agriculture and hydropower generation Cooperation will result in economic benefits associated with reduced tension among riparian states. Watershed management and water storage in the major river basins in Africa (Congo, Niger, Nile, Zambezi etc.) would generate hydropower, flood control and irrigation benefits.

26. ADAPTATION OPTIONS CONT.. Need for cooperation cont.. –International rivers can be catalyst agents, with cooperation that would yield benefits from the river and reduce costs because of the river, paving the way to much greater interaction between states, such as the movement of labor, goods and services and thus yielding benefits beyond the river. –The potential benefits of closer integration in water planning, development and management are strongly related to creating opportunities for improving the prospects for growth and prosperity in all the regions in Africa.

27. ADAPTATION OPTIONS CONT.. Need for cooperation cont.. –Regional cooperation in energy and water could have huge gains for regions in Africa by providing improved energy supply for economic growth. –Cross-border management of water resources and data and information exchange could help control flooding across riparian states and improve the water availability.

28. PROPOSED WATER POLICY –International water resources shall be shared in accordance to the Dublin-Rio principles. –Establishment and/or strengthen existing river basin institutions national/international should be considered as a pre-requisite for the implementation of IWRM. –Climate change adaptation options to be mainstreamed in national development action plans –Integrated Flood Management (IFM) should be applied in flood prone areas (restrictions to be limited to structural development only).

29. PROPOSED WATER POLICY CONT.. –The environment is a legitimate user of water. Therefore water allocation shall insure that a minimum reserve is allowed for the protection of the environment (inflow water requirement). –Water resources development shall at all times ensure environmental protection in compliance with ratified international laws/conventions and standards.

30. PROPOSED WATER POLICY CONT.. –Gender mainstreaming in the management of water resources shall be encouraged in line with the Dublin- Rio principles. –Exchange of experiences including best practices on farming should be promoted to ensure that watersheds are not degraded. – Encourage rainwater harvesting techniques –Strengthen National and Regional capacities for information gathering and monitoring. –Strengthen regional cooperation and encourage exchange of data and information

31. AFRICA IS ENDORWED WITH RENEWABLE RESOURCES SUCH AS.. –Water resources –Solar energy –Wind energy WHAT IS REQUIRED IS THE INFRASTRUCTURE(S) TO HARNESS THE ABOVE RESOURCES

32. THANK YOU AHSANTE SANA SIYABONGA KAKHULU