 # THEORETICAL PROBABILITY - SIMPLE EVENTS OCCURING.

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THEORETICAL PROBABILITY - SIMPLE EVENTS OCCURING

M7.E.3.1.1 – Find the theoretical probability of a simple/compound event

 Probability: m easurement on how likely it is for an event to occur  Theoretical Probability: a statement of the probability of an event without doing an experiment or analyzing data.  Favorable outcome: outcome that you want to happen.  Possible outcomes : how many total outcomes that can occur in a given situation  How do you show probability as a fraction ?  P (event) = ____number of favorable outcomes____ number or possible outcomes for event

 A person has a deck of cards that have been shuffled. What is the probability of someone pulling a king from the deck?  STEP 1: FIND THE NUMBER OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.  Remember that the denominator tells you how many possible outcomes there are for the given event. Since a deck of cards has 52 cards, there are 52 possible outcomes. So, the denominator is 52.

 STEP 2: FIND THE NUMBER OF FAVORABLE OUTCOMES  What card do we want to pick from the deck?  A king (this is our favorable outcome since this is what we want)  Since we want to pick out a king, we need to find out how many kings are in the deck. How many kings are in a deck of cards?  There are 4 kings in a deck of cards. So out of the 52 possible outcomes, there are 4 that we want. There are 4 favorable outcomes. The 4 becomes your numerator. Now you have your fraction.

 STEP 3: PUT YOUR FRACTION IN LOWEST TERMS!  Answer  The chances of pulling a king out of a deck at random is one in thirteen. =

 A bag contains 4 red marbles, 2 blue marbles, and 6 orange marbles. What is the probability of pulling out an orange marble?  Step 1 – Find total possible outcomes  Step 2 – Find total number of favorable outcomes  Step 3 - Put fraction in lowest terms number of favorable outcomes total possible outcomes (12) (6) =

a. b.c.d. Using the spinner to the right, find the probability of the spinner landing on green?

a. b.c.d. Using the spinner to the right, find the probability of the spinner landing on green?