Presentation on theme: "Comparing Two Groups’ Means or Proportions"— Presentation transcript:
1 Comparing Two Groups’ Means or Proportions Independent Samples t-tests
2 Review Y-bar? Y-bar? µ? Y-bar µo=guess 95% CI: Y-bar +/- 1.96 *(s.e.) Confidence Interval for a MeanSlap a sampling distribution* over a sample mean to determine a range in which the population mean has a particular probability of being—such as 95% CI.If our sample is one of the middle 95%, we know that the mean of the population is within the CI.Significance Test for a MeanSlap a sampling distribution* over a guess of the population mean to determine if the sample has a very low probability of having come from a population where the guess is true—such as α-level = .05.If our sample mean is in the outer 5%, we know to reject the guess, our sample has a low chance of having come from a population with the mean we guessed.Y-bar?Y-bar?µ?2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%-1.96z+1.96zY-bar95% CI: Y-bar +/ *(s.e.)-1.96z+1.96zµo=guessz or t = (Y-bar - µo)/ s.e.*sampling distribution: the way statistics for samples of a certain size would stack up or be distributed after all possible samples are collected
3 ReviewLet’s collect some data on educational aspirations and produce a 95% confidence interval to tell us where the population parameter likely falls and then let’s do a test of significance where we guess that average aspiration will be 16 years.I collected a sample of 625 kids who reported their educational aspirations where 12 = high school, 16 equals 4 years of college and so forth. The average for the sample was 15 years with a standard deviation of 2 years.95% confidence interval 95% CI = Sample Mean +/- z * s.e.Find the standard error of the sampling distribution:s / n = 2/√625 = 2/25 = 0.08Build the width of the Interval. 95% corresponds with a z of +/+/- z * s.e = 1.96 * 0.08 = 0.157Insert the mean to build the interval:95% CI = Sample Mean +/- z * s.e = 15 +/The interval: toWe are 95% confident that the population mean falls between these values. (What does this say about my guess???)
4 ReviewLet’s collect some data on educational aspirations and produce a 95% confidence interval to tell us where the population parameter likely falls and then let’s do a test of significance where we guess that average aspiration will be 16 years.I collected a sample of 625 kids who reported their educational aspirations where 12 = high school, 16 equals 4 years of college and so forth. The average for the sample was 15 years with a standard deviation of 2 years.Significance Test z or t = (Y-bar - µo)/ s.e.Decide -level ( = .05) and nature of test (two-tailed)Set critical z or t: (+/- 1.96)Make guess or null hypothesis,Ho: = 16Ha: 16Collect and analyze dataCalculate Z or t: z/t = Y-bar - o (s.e. = s/√n = 2/√625 = 2/25 = .08)s.e.z/t = (15 – 16)/.08 = -1/.08 = -12.5Make a decision about the null hypothesis (reject the null: < -1.96)Find the P-value (look up 12.5 in z or t table). P < .0001It is extremely unlikely that our sample came from a population where the mean is 16.
5 I love sophisticated statistics! Comparing Two GroupsWe’re going to move forward to more sophisticated statistics, building on what we have learned about confidence intervals and significance tests.Sociologists look for relationships between concepts in the social world.For example:Does one’s sex affect income?Focus on the relationship between the concepts: Sex and IncomeDoes one’s race affect educational attainment?Focus on the relationship between the concepts: Race and Educational AttainmentI love sophisticated statistics!
6 Comparing Two GroupsIn this section of the course, you will learn ways to infer from a sample whether two concepts are related in a population.Independent variable (X): That which causes another variable to change when it changes.Dependent variable (Y): That which changes in response to change in another variable.X Y(X= Sex or Race) (Y= Income or Education)The statistical technique you use will depend of the level of measurement of your independent and dependent variables—the statistical test must match the variables!Levels of Measurement: Nominal, Ordinal, Interval-Ratio
7 Comparing Two GroupsThe test you choose depends on level of measurement:Independent Dependent Statistical TestDichotomous Interval-ratio Independent Samples t-testDichotomousNominal Nominal Cross TabsOrdinal OrdinalDichotomous DichotomousNominal Interval-ratio ANOVAOrdinal DichotomousInterval-ratio Interval-ratio Correlation and OLS Regression
8 Comparing Two Groups Independent Dependent Statistical Test Dichotomous Interval-ratio Independent Samples t-testDichotomousAn independent samples t-test is concerned with whether a mean or proportion is equal between two groups. For example, does sex affect income?♀ Income♂ IncomeWomen’s mean = Men’s Mean ???
9 Comparing Two Groups Independent Samples t-tests: Earlier, our focus was on the mean. We used the mean of the sample (statistic) to infer a range for what our population mean (parameter) might be (confidence interval) or whether it was like some guess or not (significance test).Now, our focus is on the difference in the mean for two groups. We will use the difference of the sample (statistic) to infer a range for what our population difference (parameter) might be (confidence interval) or whether it is like some guess (significance test).
10 Comparing Two Groups The difference will be calculated as such: D-bar = Y-bar2 – Y-bar1For example:Average Difference in Income by Sex =Male Average Income – Female Average Income(What would it mean if men’s income minus women’s income equaled zero?)
11 Comparing Two GroupsLike the mean, if one were to take random sample after random sample from two groups and calculate and record the difference between groups each time, one would see the formation of a Sampling Distribution for D-bar that was normal and centered on the two populations’ difference.average difference between two groups’ samples=Sampling Distribution of D-barZ95% Range
12 Comparing Two Groups It’s Power Time Again! Using just a sample, our statistics will allow us to pinpoint the difference between two groups in the population (confidence interval) or to determine whether our sample could have come from a population with a difference between two groups that we guessed (significance test).
13 Comparing Two GroupsSo the rules and techniques we learned for means and proportions apply to the differences in groups’ means and proportions.One creates sampling distributions to create confidence intervals and do significance tests in the same ways.However, the standard error of D-bar has to be calculated slightly differently.For Means: (s1) (s2)2s.e. (s.d. of the sampling distribution) = n n2For Proportions:s.e. = 1 (1 - 1) 2 (1 - 2)n n2
14 Comparing Two GroupsCalculating a Confidence Interval for the Difference between Two Groups’ MeansBy slapping the sampling distribution for the difference over our sample’s difference between groups, D-bar, we can find the values between which the population difference is likely to be.95% C.I. = D-bar +/ * (s.e.)= (Y-bar2 – Y-bar1) +/ * (s.e.)Or = (2 – 1) +/ * (s.e.)99% C.I. = D-bar +/ * (s.e.)= (Y-bar2 – Y-bar1) +/ * (s.e.)Or = (2 – 1) +/ * (s.e.)
15 Comparing Two Groups EXAMPLE: We want to know what the likely difference is between male and female GPAs in a population of college students with 95% confidence.Sample: 50 men, average gpa = 2.9, s.d. = 0.550 women, average gpa = 3.1, s.d. = 0.495% C.I. = Y-bar2 – Y-bar1 +/ * s.e.Find the standard error of the sampling distribution:s.e. = (.5)2/ 50 + (.4)2/50 = = .008 =Build the width of the Interval. 95% corresponds with a z or t of +/+/- z * s.e = +/ * = +/Insert the mean difference to build the interval:95% C.I. = (Y-bar2 – Y-bar1) +/ * s.e. = / = /The interval: toWe are 95% confident that the difference between men’s and women’s GPAs in the population is between .026 andIf we had guessed zero difference, would the difference be a significant difference?
16 Comparing Two GroupsConducting a Test of Significance for the Difference between Two Groups’ MeansBy slapping the sampling distribution for the difference over a guess of the difference between groups, Ho, we can find out whether our sample could have been drawn from a population where the difference is equal to our guess.Two-tailed significance test for -level = .05Critical z or t = +/- 1.96To find if there is a difference in the population,Ho: 2 - 1 = 0Ha: 2 - 1 0Collect DataCalculate z or t: z or t = (Y-bar2 – Y-bar1) – (2 - µ1)s.e.Make decision about the null hypothesis (reject or fail to reject)Report P-value
17 Comparing Two Groups EXAMPLE: We want to know whether there is a difference in male and female GPAs in a population of college students.Two-tailed significance test for -level = .05Critical z or t = +/- 1.96To find if there is a difference in the population,Ho: 2 - 1 = 0Ha: 2 - 1 0Collect DataSample: 50 men, average gpa = 2.9, s.d. = 0.550 women, average gpa = 3.1, s.d. = 0.4s.e. = (.5)2/ 50 + (.4)2/50 = = .008 =Calculate z or t: z or t = – 2.9 – = =Make decision about the null hypothesis: Reject the null. There is enough difference between groups in our sample to say that there is a difference in the population >1.96Find P-value: p or (sig.) = .0122We have a 1.2 % chance that the difference in our sample could have come from a population where there is no difference between men and women. That chance is low enough to reject the null, for sure!
18 The steps outlined above for Comparing Two GroupsThe steps outlined above forConfidence intervalsAndSignificance testsfor differences in means are the same you would use for differences in proportions.Just note the difference in calculation of the standard error for the difference.
19 Comparing Two GroupsNow let’s do an example with SPSS, using the General Social Survey.