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Of FOREX & Futures Trading

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1 Of FOREX & Futures Trading
Fundamentals Of FOREX & Futures Trading Steve Wheeler NaviTrader, Inc. Copyright 2006, All Rights Reserved

2 Agenda April 29, 2006 Futures/ FOREX Interactive Brokers TWS
Risk Management Developing a Trading Plan Test Your Plan and Yourself Psychology Potential Instruments to Trade Technical Analysis Interactive Brokers TWS TRADERS WORKSHOP

3 The Elements of Success
Controlling Your Emotions RULES: High Probability Stock Trades RISK: Money Management Your Trading Business BROKER BROKER

4 Why Trade The Futures/FOREX??
Narrows the Scope Leverage 25 : 1 or greater Slippage is minimal Ease of going long or short Lets you specialize Not subject to day trading rule Tax advantages

5 Do Self-Development The fastest way to get rich, and to stay rich is to develop yourself. Learn from those who are already masters in their field Find a mentor The more you learn, the more you earn.

6 Steps In the Learning Process…
Find People and patterns that Are Successful Find Out What They Consider Most Important to Their Success Assess your own belief system Test those beliefs on actual market data Find Out What They Consider to be the Most Important Elements of Their Success Get Set up with Broker(s) Get Set up with proper tools Make sure you have a tested system Now TEST YOURSELF by simulating trading! Start Trading With only ONE contract (lot) Add more contracts (lots) gradually as your capital builds

7 Risk Management Never risk more than x % of your equity in a trade
“It’s all about money management” Essentially this means that you cut losers quickly and let your winners run. Sounds easy, right? Test this by setting up a system that goes for at least 2 points profit for every point risked Example: A system that trades the Russell 2000 with and initial stop of .6 points (6 ticks) and goes for a 2 point profit target, so you have a reward/risk ratio of 2.0 / .6 = 3.33 to 1

8 Four Outcomes of An Investment or Trade
Large Gain Large Loss Small Gain Small Loss You Only Need to Eliminate The Large Losers and you will have made a major stride toward consistent profits RISK 762.00 761.10 Entry Price Initial Stop

9 Universal Money Management Rules
Never Risk More Than X% in any One Trade YOU define X% (0.5-2%is Typical) Why is this important? You know better what to expect from your system, therefore you will sleep better You can design a system that fits your personality Slow or fast moving Few or many trades High Profit or Low Draw Down

10 How many contacts/lots should I Buy or Sell?
Risk = Entry – Initial Stop – = 50.00/contract Position Sizing is Crucial Risk should not exceed 1% to 2% of your equity on any trade Account Equity = $20,000 Max Risk = $20,000 x 1% = $200 Max contracts = Max Risk Amount / Risk per Contract Max contracts = $200.00/$50.00 = 4 contracts RISK 1,266.50 1,265.50 Entry Price Initial Stop

11 Risk Management - Keeping It Under Control
Example Russell 2000 Equity = 10,000 Risk% = 2% = $200 Russell (ER2) = $100/pt Price = 550 Technical Profit 554 1.5 point stop x $100 = $150 per contract risk Max. Contracts = 1 to not exceed $200 maximum risk level Example S &P E-mini Equity = 50,000 Risk% = 2% = $1000 S&P (ES) = $50/pt Price = 1100 Technical 1104 Profit 1089 Maximum contracts = 5 4 point stop x $50 = $200 per contract risk Maximum contracts = 5 to not exceed $1000 maximum risk level

12 Tools You Will Need Computer(s) with power backup, data backup and surge protection, anti virus Redundancy is Always a Good Idea Back Test Software Charting Front End Software Broker Yourself!

13 Trading Environment What Does My Trading Environment Need to Look Like? Office Environment Based on my system or method, what Equipment do I need? Multiple Monitors, Computers? What broker do I need? Talk to other traders for ideas…

14 Charting Find something that speaks to you
There are many good indicators Just find something that works for you that identifies your preferred method of entry and exits Suggestion Take a look at a price chart with only price bars. With only price bars, try to find what would have been the best entry points, and then put on an indicator and see if it would have identified these great entry points

15 Charting Systems to Consider
AIQ Systems E-signal Qcharts QuoteTracker Ensign Sierra Charts Aspen Graphics Trade Maven

16 Front End Software Bracket Trader Ninja Trader Trade Maven Others
Ninja Trader Trade Maven Others

17 Back testing Systems AIQ Trade Station Genesis Trade Navigator
Trade Station Genesis Trade Navigator AMI Broker MetaStock

18 Written Business and Trading Plan
What It Needs to Contain…. Similar to other business plans – Blue Print! What do I need to do skill wise to trade? What IS MY TRADING PLAN? HAVE I TESTED IT? What equipment do I need? How many days a year do I trade? What kind of income do I need and how am I going to accomplish my objectives? What are my expenses? Projected P & L

19 What is a reasonable Goal?
Gain experience by just trading the futures and preserving your capital Learn how to execute orders Learn how to control your own behavior Patience! Begin to trade profitably! Unfortunately, there is no substitute for experience

20 What is a reasonable Goal?
Six S & P points a week consistently will provide a nice income if you are trading enough contracts. Example 5 contracts x 6 points x $50 = $1,500 per week = $78,000/ yr. 10 contracts x 6 points x $50 = $3,000 per week = $156,000/yr. Don’t start out with too many contracts, no matter how large your account is.

21 The Building of a Belief System
Seeing Is Believing You Can Start By Looking at Charts for Ideas Test Your Ideas by Methodically Going Through Charts and keeping Statistics Use some type of computer system to back test strategy and money management ideas Write Out Your Beliefs about Trading Trade In Simulated Mode to Test Your Beliefs A good trade simulator will give you a very good idea if YOU can trade the strategy consistently profitable

22 Planning is the Key to Success
Pilots use a Checklist 20-Year Pilots use the Checklist Memorizing It is NOT an Option If You Fail to Plan, You Plan to Fail Predefined Procedures Make Planning Easy to Do

23 Benefits of Having a Written Plan
NaviTrader AutoPlanner Benefits of Having a Written Plan Written Plans Clarify Your Trading Predefine Risk Predefine Reward You Will Be More Likely To Follow The Plan Forces You To Take Responsibility Creates Good Habits Fosters Consistency

24 Step 3: Develop a Profitable Trading Plan
What's the answer? Assess Your Beliefs - Write them Down Test your beliefs with real data Write Out Your Plan Test yourself Execute Your Plan Planning / Execution

25 How To Develop Your Own System
Determine How Actively You Want To Trade Every 5 Minutes Two Times A Day Weekly Monthly This Will Determine The Type of Chart You Look At and the indicators that you need to look at

26 Elements of Your Trading Plan
EURO Futures - Setup on How do we plan this trade? How to Enter? When? Order type? How do we exit? With a loss? With a profit? With too much time? How many contacts do we buy? Are we all in or all out or do we scale entries and/or exits? How do we manage the trade once we are in? Moving stops. How do we ensure we follow the plan each day in the trade? WRITE IT DOWN! What do we do when we exit the trade? What will we learn the most from….winners or losers?

27 The Fundamental Math of Trading
From a mathematical standpoint, all you have to do to make money is the following: (Number of winners x average win) > (number of losers x average loss) It is important to understand this so that you know that you do not even have to be profitable more than 50% of the time to make money

28 Testing Manually for Plausibility
You Can Test intraday strategies manually by looking at charts This will give you an idea of what will probably work before spending time coding a back test

29 How To Evaluate Trading Systems
Number of Winners/Losers Average Trade Size Reward/Risk Ratio Annual ROI Total Number of Trades Max Draw Down Largest Winner, Largest Loser When you run your backtest, you will be able to determine such things as Number of winners vs. losers Average trade size Reward/risk ratio Total Number of Trades Largest Winner vs. largest loser Without Testing You are Flying Blind

30 Principles of Price Behavior
Trend Continuation- BOOM Initial Momentum Precedes Further Momentum Price Movement is a Function of Supply and Demand Price Movement Cycles from Range Expansion to Range Contraction

31 Initial Momentum Precedes Further Momentum
Dynamic Materials - BOOM This Principle is Powerful and Gives You One of The Best LEADING indicators You can find You Will Normally See a Familiar Volume Pattern along with this Price Pattern Boom did 300 x normal vol on breakout Weekly chart of BOOM tells the story of volume and price. Did over 100 times normal volume on breakout from base

32 Go Back to Price Behavioral Principles
Go With The Major Trend Look for Sudden Bursts of Momentum Look for Volatility Expansion and Contraction These will make you money Look For Patterns that Occur with Probability Double Tops & Double Bottoms for Reversals

33 Psychology - You Need To Rewire Your Brain
None of These Parts Were Made To Trade. You must learn to think differently than the masses, because at least 95% of them lose money.

34 Why does Success Evade Most Traders?
In searching for trading success, most people spend their time solving the wrong problem Looking for the perfect setup, finding a guru, chart patterns with 100% winners The Problem Most Often Lies In Our Trading Behaviors There is much more to Trading Successfully than just Having A System

35 To Master Trading, You will have to learn how to master yourself
Discipline To Master Trading, You will have to learn how to master yourself The one thing that all successful traders share is strict discipline

36 Trading Discipline Leads to Profits
Mistakes have much more effect than successes One mistake can easily wipe out 10 successes Conversely, One Good Trade replaces 10 losers Sadly, most Trading Mistakes could be avoided Discipline in Entries, Exits, Proper Sizing, Risk Control can make almost any trader profitable Unfortunately, most people do not want to do ANY work to make money Happily, with the help of computer automation and the world wide web, less work is required However, Discipline in doing what IS required is still the key to success… it’s just easier now!

37 What is Trader Psychology?
Correct Trader Psychology simply means following your pre-determined Trading Plan NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS! First, You Have to Have a Plan Second, You Have to Follow it Eliminate emotional trades, the majority of which lose money (amateurs) You will find that the more automated and simple your plan is, the Easier it will be to follow. It MUST Contain the 3 Elements of Successful Trading

38 Major Psychological Errors Made by Traders
Trading too Large of size Trading too small of size Trading Without a Mathematically Proven System or a System of any kind Trading the Wrong Time Frame Not Having a Written Plan Lead to a Falling Equity Curve!

39 Stay Disciplined and Follow Your Plan
Errors to Avoid Do Not Add To Your Size after a Losing Streak Do Not Increase Size after a Good Streak One or two bad trades with more size can wipe out weeks of months of good trades with less size Each Trade should stand on its own, and not Every trade should NOT reflect the previous one Sorry for the repetition, but all we are saying is…Follow your Plan. Stay Disciplined and Follow Your Plan

40 Psychological Suggestions for Traders
Put Losing Trades Out of Your Mind Put Winning Trades Out of Your Mind Even Faster Be objective, not subjective in your decision making Keep a Good Attitude, Even in the Face of Constant 2 Steps forward, 1 Step Back Don’t change the plan in the middle of the trade Do not put on too Big of a Trade…It will affect your objectivity (FEAR) Can cause you to switch to shorter time frames Can cause you to become an investor (can’t take the loss) Being Objective means Following a WRITTEN PLAN!

41 Tracking Performance Improves Performance
Profitability Every Quarter is another Goal Profit for Quarter (April, May, June) $7, starting with a $22,000 account

42 A Trade Journal Helps to Reinforce Good Behaviors
Professional Traders keep a log of why they entered a trade, exited, errors made, etc. This Daily Routine reinforces good behaviors, and extinguishes bad behaviors Logs should be reviewed frequently, otherwise what good are they Keeping logs on a computer is convenient & can provide more details on the trade Followed the plan on this trade. Setup was right & everything followed through. Closed the trade too early. Should have followed the plan for profit target but got out sooner.

43 How Do I Make Myself Behave Successfully?
I Must Only Take System Trades I Must Buy the Proper # Contracts/Lots I Must Cut Losses Short I Must Have a WRITTEN PLAN I Must Learn from My Mistakes

44 Traders Action Plan After the Market Closes During Trading Day
Analyze Markets for new setups Plan entries, exits, size the trade for appropriate risk, write the trading plan with all this information Also needs to manage current positions Enter orders for next day with your broker During Trading Day If full time trader, use the day to learn a new system, skill, or do research/recreation If part time, focus on your job Analyze the markets when they are closed. Your job during the day is to monitor markets, execute trades and manage positions.

45 Winners Get Out of Their Comfort Zone
Do The Hard Work now to Make Your Life Easier in The Future You can either develop your own systems, or find someone to code them for your Successful people say that “If I can learn just one new thing, then my efforts will be worth it. Do whatever it takes to move to the next level. TRADERS WORKSHOP

46 Maintain a Positive Attitude
Your Thoughts Are a Choice That You Make Keep a Journal on Your Thoughts Think about the Tests You Have Done On Your Strategy and How It Has Worked In The Past Have Some Patience and Give Your Trades a Chance to Mature If You Planted a Seed, You Would Not Dig Up The Seed to see if it is growing Accept The Fact That We are Playing a Game of Probabilities, not Certainties…..Sometimes you get the elevator, and sometimes you get the shaft

47 Trading Vehicle – S & P e-mini
Tick Value $12.50 Minimum movement .25 point Point Value $50 Example $10,000 trading account x 2% = $200 Assumption – Max. stop loss = 1 point ($50) Maximum contracts = 4 Assumption – Max. stop loss = 2 point ($50) Maximum contracts = 2

48 Trading Vehicle – Russell 2000
Tick Value $10 Minimum movement .1 point Point Value $100 Example $10,000 trading account x 2% = $200 Assumption – Max. stop loss = 2 point ($100) Max. Contracts = 1

49 Trading Vehicles – Euro Futures - EUR
Tick Value $12.50 Minimum movement tick Equivalent to 1 pip in the spot currency market Example $10,000 trading account x 2% = $200 Assumption – Max. stop loss = 16 ticks Max. Contract(s) = 1 (16 x 12.50) = $200

50 Trading Vehicle – British Pound Futures - GBP
Tick Value $6.25 Minimum movement tick Equivalent to 1 pip in the spot currency market Example $10,000 trading account x 2% = $200 Assumption – Max. stop loss = 16 ticks Max. Contract(s) = 2 (2 x 16 x 6.25) = $200

51 Future Orders w/ Bracket Order-1
Enter ES, select Future, Select Month/Yr Click ASK Price for Buy, Bid Price for Sell to create order Once Future order is created, adjust price as needed

52 Future Orders w/ Bracket Order-2
RIGHT-Click on Order Line to get Menu LEFT-Click on Attach, Bracket Orders

53 Future Orders w/ Bracket Order-3
ENTRY ORDER Profit Target Stop Loss Click “T” to Transmit Order has entered the Market as a Limit order, w/ associated Bracket orders

54 Benefits of Using a Front End
Less Entry Errors Define your method and simulate trading it Keeps record of your trades Wins vs. Losses MAE and MFE Enforces discipline Stop and profit target are placed automatically Helps with psychology Teaches you to cut your losses and let your winners run

55 Bracket Trader - Use with IB
Download Bracket Trader at In IB Trader Workstation Configure, API, Enable ActiveX Set Up Your Strategies

56 Bracket Trader - Use with IB

57 Ready For Next Entry

58 Bracket Trader – While In Position

59 Simulation of IB TWS Screen

60 Bracket Trader – After Trade Closed

61 Trade Log In Bracket Trader

62 Learn to Read the Momentum of the Market
Often, you will get a good read on the day by looking at the first 15 minutes of activity, which in many cases will be the best indicator of that days momentum Use Momentum Indicators such as CCI or Keltner Channel

63 What To Do With The Information….
Buy Support Sell Resistance Going into the open, the most significant price points that you know are the previous day’s High and Low As You Get further into the day, you Know more and more, such as first hours high and low. Unfortunately, the further you get into the day, the closer you are to the end of the day!

64 Types of Days and How To Anticipate Them
Consolidation Day This is a day where trading stays within a fairly tight boundary and usually trades within a few point of the open for most of the day. Trend Day Range for the day is relatively large, and prices usually trades from Low to High or High to Low Reversal Day Price starts out going in one direction and then changes direction during the day.

65 How To Anticipate Trending Day
Trend Day Opening Gap - Prior Day was Narrowest Range day in N days Activity In First 15 minutes – What is the range? Tick Values + 1,000 for Up day or -500 Trin Values .5 or less for Up day Trin Values 2.0 or higher for a Down day

66 How To Anticipate Consolidation Day
Just had a trend Day! It is very uncommon to have a trend day just after you have had a trend day. Price activity in first 15 minutes. Only a fairly small amount of price movement over the first 15 minutes. The longer you trade, the better feel you will have for this. It is very uncommon to have a trend day just after you have had a trend day, so after a big range day up or down, the odds greatly favor a consolidation day. The first 15 to 60 minutes of the day is a discovery process. If you only have a fairly small amount of price movement over the first 15 minutes, then that is another indication of a consolidation day. The importance of knowing this is that on a consolidation day, you play the support and resistance strategy. You need to be sizing up the market to see where support and resistance exists for the entire portion of the day in which you intend to trade. On course, the further you get into the day, the more information you have. You can be drawing lines across the highs and lows that are being made for the day. The longer you trade, the better feel you will have for this.

67 How To Anticipate Reversal Day
You have had a series of days in a given direction (down) for example. The market opens down again today, and then goes to a known price area where the market has shown support in the past. A sudden change in tick values, for example from -800 to + 1,000.

68 What To Monitor During the Day
Charts Tick Trin Nasdaq, Dow, S & P Where you are in relationship To Key Levels

69 Why is it Important To Anticipate Type of Day?
The trading methods you might employ will be determined by type of day. Trend day Let your winners run Consolidation day S & R Take smaller profits The trading methods you might employ will be determined by type of day.

70 Ways to use tick information
Symbol $tick = Net stocks up or down on NYSE The two ways to use the ticks are as follows:   Fade extreme readings when in a trading range environment. Enter on retracements in tick readings in a trending environment.  Summary of Tick Value Behavior

71 Summary of Tick Behavior
Environment Range in Tick Readings Oversold/Overbought Up Trending to +1200 Sideways Trading to Down trending to + 400

72 What is a Good Reward Risk Ratio?
For each dollar you are risking you should be able to capture 2 to 3 dollars in profits We use 2.5 or greater Typically low risk entries occur as Volatility (range) decreases Big move from Base greatly increases volatility and ATR During Pullback, Volatility and ATR decrease This condition precedes the continuation of the Trend RISK REWARD

73 What is a Good Reward Risk Ratio?
For each dollar you are risking you should be able to capture 2 to 3 dollars in profits We use 2.5 or greater Typically low risk entries occur as Volatility (range) decreases Big move from Base greatly increases volatility and ATR During Pullback, Volatility and ATR decrease This condition precedes the continuation of the Trend RISK REWARD

74 High Probability Setups
Entry Exit VOLUME PRICE Trade with the Trend Probability favors continuance The Longer the Base the Better the Move The bigger the First Move, the Bigger the Second Move Price is a function of Supply & Demand When S/D are unbalanced, Price moves very fast Imbalances take much longer to correct than to create – this is what underlies the TREND

75 What Are We Really Looking For?
You Need An Edge so You must find a way to identify The trend for the timeframe in which you are trading A Method of Entry Pullbacks Breakouts What matters more than entries is that you know your risk going into the trade, and you adhere to that risk plan

76 Charting Find something that speaks to you
There are many good indicators Just find something that works for you that identifies your preferred method of entry and exits Suggestion Take a look at a price chart with only price bars. With only price bars, try to find what would have been the best entry points, and then put on an indicator and see if it would have identified these great entry points

77 Charting Systems to Consider
QuoteTracker E-signal Qcharts Ensign Sierra Charts Aspen Graphics Trade Maven

78 Daily Preparation Know When Major News Announcements are taking place
You may be trading five minute bars, but you may want to step back and look at daily charts or some longer time frame to give you the bigger picture Make sure you are rested and in top physical condition Make sure you are in top mental condition Proper Diet and Exercise Then best health insurance is free! If you are trading off of daily bars, do all of your orders before the market opens

79 Steps In Learning Process…
Find People Who Are Successful Already Assess your own belief system Test those beliefs on market data Find Out What They are doing Find Out What They Consider to be the Most Important Elements of Their Success Get Set up with Broker(s) Get Set up with proper tools Make sure you have a tested system Now TEST YOURSELF by simulating trading! Start Trading With only ONE contract Add more contracts gradually

80 Some Rules of Thumb -1 The larger the opening gap, the greater the odds of a trend day The majority of the time, the opening play will be a test of the previous days high or low. If the previous day was a trend day, the odds favor the market trading on both sides of the open by 2 to 3 points in the first 30 minutes If the previous day was a trend day, today will very likely be a consolidation day. On consolidation days, go for smaller “scalp” type of profits

81 Stock Index Futures - Rules of Thumb # 2
On Big Range Days, The Market Will Trade From Low to High or from High to Low The importance of knowing this is that generally you will want to have a runner on the big range days and your best exit will be at the close Avoid Taking Counter Trend Trade late in the day on big range days This is important, because of the above phenomena of markets trading from high to low or low to high on big range days. You can look at daily bars to see that this is true. Try to Avoid Biases Going Into The Day

82 Technical Analysis Examples
Pattern breaking out of long bases on relatively large volume Extreme initial move (forward momentum) Relatively Large Daily Range Smaller countermove Decreasing daily range Volume – Large on the Up Move, Smaller on the Countermove (shows the “Real Move”) ENTRY: At the end of the countermove Resumption of the Momentum Initial Price Momentum Precedes Continued Momentum

83 Indicators – What Are You Trying To Find
What are we really looking for with indicators? Major Trend Minor Trend Change of Trend

84 Look At Charts – Patterns and Setups
When We Look At Charts, What is the one thing that we can all agree on? Price Indicators Stochastics RSI (Relative Strength Index) MACD (Moving average convergence/divergence CCI (Commodity channel index) Keltner Channel Donchian Channels Moving Averages Trend Lines

85 EURO 02-10-06 8:30am – 9:00 am 15 min chart 40 point move
Use of Trend Lines MACD Stochastics RSI

86 Russell 2000 02-10-06 - 3 min DB w/ MACD Diver.
5 Point Move Up After Double Bottom MACD Divergence

87 Looking at Multiple Time Frames - Russell 2000 Daily Chart 02-10-06
Use of Trend Lines

88 Russell 2000 30 min chart 02-09-06/02-10-06
Stochastics MACD RSI

89 Russell 2000 02-10-06 9:30 – 1:30 5 min chart

90 British Pound 11-15-05 3 min Channel Breakout
First Pullback Break Below Channel

91 Use of CCI

92 Channel Breakout

93 Enter Short Channel Breakout News Event at 8:30 a.m. EST

94 Channel Breakout

95 Euro Futures Euro Futures :20 a.m.

96 12 Hour Channel- Euro 10-13/10-14-2005
13 Minute Chart Use of Trend Lines

97 Euro Futures 6-10-05 10 min chart
Break Below Channel Short on Pullback Euro Futures Break below the donchian channel Short on first pullback Review charts to determine the type of stops that you will need to keep you in these trades without creating undue risk

98 Euro Futures 6-10-05 10 min chart
Adaptive Moving Ave CCI Zero Line Reject The Euro futures had a change in the adaptive moving average. The entry would be the first zero line reject after the change in the adaptive moving average. Exit on cross back above the zero line on the CCI.

99 Euro Futures 6-10-05 10 min chart - Keltner
Enter on Pullback Close Below Keltner Here is another view of the EUR on the same day. On this chart we have Keltner channels. Everybody sees the same price chart. What we are really looking for is a sudden burst of momentum, and an entry on the first couter trend pullback. A stop can be placed just above the pullback bar Exit on Close above MA

100 British Pound 6-13-05 30 Min Chart
Regression Channel Trend? Technical Resistance Here is a 30 minute chart of the British Pound on Do you see a trend here? Favor short trades and place stops above technical resistance CCI below Zero Line

101 British Pound 6-14-05 60 Minute Chart - CCI
A trend line is drawn above the highs of the 60 minute chart Just after news on the price spiked up to the upper channel line providing a very good shorting opportunity. News at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time very often causes wild movement in the currency futures prices and potential trading opportunities.

102 British Pound Futures 01-25-06 15 min chart

103 Russell p.m. 15 min. Stochastics Low Buy above High of Lowest Down Bar - Sell on Close Below Low of Highest Up Bar

104 GBP a.m. 15 Min Longer Term Trend is Down – Below Moving Average Use of Trend Lines Here’s a 15 minute chart of the GBP on Feb 6th. You can see that when stochastics is at upper extreme, we had some good entry points. GBP was below the 90 period ma

105 EURO Futures min. Longer Term Trend is Down – Below Moving Average

106 Risk Management – GBP (British Pound)
Tick Value $6.25 Minimum movement .1 point Point Value $100 Example $10,000 trading account x 2% = $200 Assumption – Max. stop loss = 1 point ($100) Max. Contracts = 2

107 EUR 15 Min.02-03-06 Effect of News - See 8:30 a.m.
Here you can see a big move in the Euro when news came out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. About a 100 point move down, and then a move back up until about 4 p.m. Eastern

108 Russell min 2:09 p.m. Longer Term Charts are More Significant

109 Russell min 2:10 p.m.

110 Russell 2000 02-15-06 3 min MACD Divergence
Double Bottom MACD Cross

111 Russell 2000 1 min 04-27-06 First 15 Min

112 Russell 2000 - 5 min 04-27-06 Entire Day
Volatile

113 Russell min chart –

114 Dow Mini 5 min 4-27-06 Double Top w/ Divergence

115 Challenge Yourself Simulate trading based on your plan
Make it a goal to be able to trade 15 consecutive profitable days before using real money Now start with one contract (lot) at a time, no matter what your account size might be After at least 15 consecutive days of profitable trading with one contract (lot), consider adding more contracts one at a time, as your account size permits

116 Wipe Out Accounts only on Paper
Any Pilots Here? Have You ever Used a Flight Simulator? Why? If You are Going To Crash, Do it in A Simulator, not with real money!!!!!!

117 Benefits of Simulation
Good simulator will.. Show you the importance of managing risk You will see that you could have 7 trades with 5 losers and 2 winners, and still make money, if you cut your loser quickly Show you whether or not you can follow our own rules Keep a trading log This is almost impossible to do manually, although even with the computer keeping a log, you may want to supplement with your own notes on what you were thinking, etc.

118 Benefits of Simulation
Simulation Plays a Huge Part in Your Psychology Simulation Helps to Build a Profitable Belief System Cut Your Losers Quickly, Do You Want to be Right or do you want to make money? Let your winner run See that when you follow your rules you make the most money and when you invent trades that are not part of your plan, most often they will fail Find Out the importance of having patience and waiting for the very best trading opportunities to come along

119 Thanks For Attending this Seminar
NaviTrader NaviTrader Managed Services, L.L.C. If you would like a copy of this presentation, send a request to :

120 Upcoming Events Web cast seminars – Check our website for details:
WealthExpo Atlanta, Georgia May 4th – 6th Extreme Options Seminar Renaissance International Plaza Hotel Tampa, Florida June 10th 8:30 AM – 5 PM Speakers will be Steve Wheeler & Dale Wheatley

121 Potential Brokers to Consider – Futures/FOREX
Interactive Brokers TerraNovaTrading OptionsXpress Efx Group Global Futures Man Financial One World Capital Group Interbankfx.com


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