1. 3 rd G-VAP Workshop Fort Collins, CO September 30 – October 2, 2013 1 NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Correlation of Upper Tropospheric Humidity (UTH) with Climate Indices Lei Shi 1, Carl Schreck 2, Marc Schröder 3 1 NOAA/NESDIS/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, USA 2 Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, NC State Univ., Asheville, NC, USA 3 Deutscher Wetterdienst, Satellite Based Climate Monitoring, Offenbach, Germany

2. 3 rd G-VAP Workshop Fort Collins, CO September 30 – October 2, 2013 2 NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Datasets Two datasets for inter-comparison –High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) since late 1978 (polar orbiting) –Meteosat Visible and InfraRed Imager (MVIRI) and Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) since 1983 (geostationary)

3. 3 rd G-VAP Workshop Fort Collins, CO September 30 – October 2, 2013 3 NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Climate Indices The value of climate indices for forecasting has been known for decades. A widely used one is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in which persistent sea surface temperature anomalies drive distinctive weather patterns around the globe. Other important teleconnection patterns include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the Antarctic oscillation (AAO) Because these patterns evolve on timescales of weeks or more, they provide critical sources of long-range predictability. In this assessment we compare the UTH correlation patterns to the Niño3.4, PDO, and NAO indices.

4. 3 rd G-VAP Workshop Fort Collins, CO September 30 – October 2, 2013 4 NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Correlation with Nino 3.4 index Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/enso.description.htmlhttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/enso.description.html 1983 - 2009 1978 - 2011

5. 3 rd G-VAP Workshop Fort Collins, CO September 30 – October 2, 2013 5 NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Correlation with Nino 3.4 index Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/enso.description.htmlhttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/enso.description.html 1983 - 20091978 - 2011

6. 3 rd G-VAP Workshop Fort Collins, CO September 30 – October 2, 2013 6 NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Correlation with PDO index 1983 - 2009 1978 - 2011

7. 3 rd G-VAP Workshop Fort Collins, CO September 30 – October 2, 2013 7 NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Correlation with PDO index 1983 - 20091978 - 2011

8. 3 rd G-VAP Workshop Fort Collins, CO September 30 – October 2, 2013 8 NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Correlation with NAO index 1983 - 2009 1978 - 2011 Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao_tmap.shtmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao_tmap.shtml

9. 3 rd G-VAP Workshop Fort Collins, CO September 30 – October 2, 2013 9 NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Correlation with NAO index 1983 - 20091978 - 2011 Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao_pmap.shtmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao_pmap.shtml

10. 3 rd G-VAP Workshop Fort Collins, CO September 30 – October 2, 2013 10 NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Preliminary Findings Both METEOSAT UTH and HIRS UTH have high correlations with several climate indices in cold seasons The correlation patterns closely resemble the El Niño phase The correlation patterns from both datasets correspond well with the positive phases of PDO and NAO, but with some shifts in the locations of high/low index centers METEOSAT UTH generally has lower positive correlation values compared to those of HIRS UTH, likely due to the missing data for March 1997 through May 1998 (an El Niño event) METEOSAT UTH generally has higher negative correlation values compared to HIRS UTH, possibly because of overall lower UTH values in METEOSAT HIRS UTH has coverage for all longitudes to provide a more complete picture of the patterns