1. Analyzing and Managing Common Stocks
Chapter 11
Charles P. Jones, Investments: Analysis and Management,
Tenth Edition, John Wiley & Sons
Prepared by
G.D. Koppenhaver, Iowa State University

2. Impact of the Market Pervasive and dominant
The single most important risk affecting the price movement of common stocks
Particularly true for a diversified portfolio of stocks
Accounts for 90% of the variability in a diversified portfolio’s return
Investors buying foreign stocks face the same situation

3. Required Rate of Return
Minimum expected rate of return needed to induce investment
Given risk, a security must offer some minimum expected return to persuade purchase
Required RoR = RF + Risk premium
Investors expect the risk free rate as well as a risk premium to compensate for the additional risk assumed

4. Security Market Line Beta = 1.0 implies as risky as marketkM
kRF
1.0
2.0
0.5
1.5
SML
BetaM
E(R)
Beta = 1.0 implies as risky as market
Securities A and B are more risky than the market
Beta >1.0
Security C is less risky than the market
Beta <1.0

5. Understanding the Required Rate of Return
Risk-free rate
RF =Real RoR +Inflation premium
Real rate of return is basic exchange rate in the economy
Nominal RF must contain premium for expected inflation
The risk premium
Reflects all uncertainty in the asset

6. Passive Stock Strategies
Natural outcome of a belief in efficient markets
No active strategy should be able to beat the market on a risk adjusted basis
Emphasis is on minimizing transaction costs and time spent in managing the portfolio
Expected benefits from active trading or analysis less than the costs

7. Passive Stock Strategies
Buy-and-hold strategy
Belief that active management will incur transaction costs and involve inevitable mistakes
Important initial selection needs to be made
Functions to perform: reinvesting income and adjusting to changes in risk tolerance

8. Passive Stock Strategies
Index funds
Mutual funds designed to duplicate the performance of some market index
No attempt made to forecast market movements and act accordingly
No attempt to select under- or overvalued securities
Low costs to operate, low turnover

9. Active Stock Strategies
Assumes the investor possesses some advantage relative to other market participants
Most investors favor this approach despite evidence about efficient markets
Identification of individual stocks as offering superior return-risk tradeoff
Selections part of a diversified portfolio

10. Active Stock Strategies
Majority of investment advice geared to selection of stocks
Value Line Investment Survey
Security analyst’s job is to forecast stock returns
Estimates provided by analysts
expected change in earnings per share, expected return on equity, and industry outlook
Recommendations: Buy, Hold, or Sell

11. Sector Rotation
Similar to stock selection, involves shifting sector weights in the portfolio
Benefit from sectors expected to perform relatively well and de-emphasize sectors expected to perform poorly
Four broad sectors:
Interest-sensitive stocks, consumer durable stocks, capital goods stocks, and defensive stocks

12. Market Timing
Market timers attempt to earn excess returns by varying the percentage of portfolio assets in equity securities
Increase portfolio beta when the market is expected to rise
Success depends on the amount of brokerage commissions and taxes paid
Can investors regularly time the market to provide positive risk-adjusted returns?

13. Efficient Markets and Active Strategies
If EMH true:
Active strategies are unlikely to be successful over time after all costs
If markets efficient, prices reflect fair economic value
EMH Proponents argue that little time should be devoted to security analysis
Time spent on reducing taxes, costs and maintaining chosen portfolio risk

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