1. Predicting 2013 Trend of Homicide Rate in St. Louis City By Shih-Hua Chen Yao Zhang Teng ma Group E URL: www.umsl.edu/~yz3pd/is6833.html

2. Objectives Predicting the neighborhood(s) with the highest homicide rate in 2013.

3. St. Louis City Overview The 52 nd largest city in the nation Population: 318,069 (based on 2011 Census) Percent high school graduate or higher 81.90% Median household income $34,402 Individual below poverty level 26.0% 10% rely on public transit The most dangerous city in the US in 2007 and 2010, & the 2 nd most dangerous in 2011 (CNN Money). St. Louis City consists of 79 neighborhoods.

4. St. Louis City Overview 7 year homicide rate trend

5. Overview

7. Methodology Quantitative o Trend analysis/linear regression Based on 8-year murder rate historical data and population per neighborhood o Multiple regression Based on 8-year murder rate historical data, limited income and education statistics

8. Trend Analysis Sampling There are about 70 neighborhoods in City of St Louis (http://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.html)http://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.html Murder Rate=murder index/population*1,000 Choose neighborhood with population>5,000 4 neighborhoods with high rate-Jeff Venderlou, O'Fallon, The Great Ville, Well/GoodFellow 2 representative neighborhoods from Central & south St. Louis-Central West End & Tower Grove

11. Trend Analysis Method Linear Regrssion using EXCEL TREND function The TREND(known_y's, known_x's, new_x's, constant) function is used to perform Linear Regression. A least squares criterion is used and TREND tries to find the best fit under that criterion. Known_y's represent data on the "dependent variable" and known_x's represent data on one or more "independent variables". Difference between TREND & FORECAST(Microsoft excel) -TREND is more suited to data points in a series such as a time series -Forecast: not necessary to be time series (http://support.microsoft.com/kb/828801) (http://en.allexperts.com/q/Excel-1059/Excel-Functions-FORECAST- vs.htm) Known_x ’ s-murder Rate Known_y ’ s-year (define as 1-8) Coefficient-slope

12. Jeff Venderlou

13. O’Fallon

14. The Greater Ville

15. Wells-Good Fellow

16. 020302011Muder Index 00.13800.20700.13800.069 Murder Rate 200520062007200820092010201120122013 Central West End Central St. Louis

17. 040102132.162Muder Index 00.683400.17100.3420.1710.51260.369Murder Rate 200520062007200820092010201120122013Year Tower Grove East South City

18. Result North City-Highest Murder Rate in 2013 (per 1,000 people) Jeffvanderlou 1.587 Wells-Goodfellow 0.658 O’Fallon 0.518 The Greater Ville 0.196 The results show a downward trend in North city— good!

19. Multiple Regression To find relationship of murder rate with other factors. Hypothesis: income, population, and high school graduation rate have some relationship with murder rate. We selected Jeff Vanderlou, The Greater Ville, and Wells-Goodfellow. Limitation: we couldn’t find complete income, population and graduation rate data of the past 8 years. The analysis is useful because it provides more accurate prediction with 3 variables. Tools o Excel – failed o SAS – succeeded

20. Multiple Regression -- Excel Coefficients Standard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept1.5832140.1706419.278030.002651.0401582.1262711.0401582.126271 Year-0.154050.033792-4.55870.019788-0.26159-0.04651-0.26159-0.04651 Population0065535#NUM!0000 Income0065535#NUM!0000 High school graduation rate0065535#NUM!0000 The Greater Ville

21. Multiple Regression Method -- SAS Multiple regression formula: y=30.2913x 1 -0.00279x 2 -0.0894x 3 +179.22

22. Multiple Regression Method -- SAS Obscityyearpopulationeduest 1 J-V201355570.571.03711 2 TGV201361890.610.48768 3 W-G201358590.590.80141

23. Conclusion North city is relatively more dangerous. Jeff Vanderlou tops the homicide rate ranking. Other tools – interactive crime mapping.interactive crime mapping.

24. Highest murder rate Low murder rate Moderate murder rate

25. References FBI Crime in the United States 2005-2011 http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime- in-the-u.s.-2011/tables/table-6 http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime- in-the-u.s.-2011/tables/table-6 CNN Money Most Dangerous US Cities http://money.cnn.com/gallery/real_estate/2013/01/23/dangerou s-cities/2.html http://money.cnn.com/gallery/real_estate/2013/01/23/dangerou s-cities/2.html NextSTL Understanding St. Louis City Crime Index and Crime http://nextstl.com/urban-living/understanding-st-louis-total-crime- index-and-crime-ridden-neighborhoods http://nextstl.com/urban-living/understanding-st-louis-total-crime- index-and-crime-ridden-neighborhoods SLMPD Crime Statistics http://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.shtmlhttp://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.shtml AreaVibe Neighborhoods demographic data http://www.areavibes.com/ http://www.areavibes.com/ US Census http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.x html?refresh=t http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.x html?refresh=t Interactive mapping tool https://www.crimereports.com/map/index/?search=1200+Clark% 20Avenue+St.%20Louis+MO&agencyzoomlevel= https://www.crimereports.com/map/index/?search=1200+Clark% 20Avenue+St.%20Louis+MO&agencyzoomlevel All maps are created on ArcGIS.com