1. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking Networking in 5-50 Years – applications and requirements Henning Schulzrinne Columbia University hgs@cs.columbia.edu

2. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking Overview  Infrastructure, once established, tends to change very slowly  Hypothesis:  all major communications modes have been explored  replacement dedicated  IP largely complete  Networking lacks obvious drivers of other technologies:  energy costs, pollution  fuel cells  higher speed  jet engine  New applications not necessarily bandwidth-driven, but cost-driven  Reliability is the real QoS

3. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking Networking is getting into middle years ideacurrent IP1969, 1980? 1981 TCP19741981 telnet19691983 ftp19801985

4. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking Standardization  Really two facets of standardization: 1.public, interoperable description of protocol, but possibly many (Tanenbaum) 2.reduction to 1-3 common technologies  LAN: Arcnet, tokenring, ATM, FDDI, DQDB, …  Ethernet  WAN: IP, X.25, OSI  IP  Have reached phase 2 in most cases, with RPC (SOAP) and presentation layer (XML) most recent 'conversions'

5. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking Technologies at ~30 years  Other technologies at similar maturity level:  air planes: 1903 – 1938 (Stratoliner)  cars: 1876 – 1908 (Model T)  analog telephones: 1876 – 1915 (transcontinental telephone)  railroad: 1800s -- ?

6. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking Observations on progress  1960s: military  professional  consumer  now, often reversed  Oscillate: convergence  divergence  continued convergence clearly at physical layer  niches larger  support separate networks  Communications technologies rarely disappear (as long as operational cost is low):  exceptions:  telex, telegram, semaphores  fax, email  X.25 + OSI, X.400  IP, SMTP  analog cell phones

7. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking History of networking  History of networking = non-network applications migrate  postal & intracompany mail, fax  email, IM  broadcast: TV, radio  interactive voice/video communication  VoIP  information access  web, P2P  disk access  iSCSI, Fiberchannel-over-IP

8. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking Network evolution  Only three modes, now thoroughly explored:  packet/cell-based  message-based (application data units)  session-based (circuits)  Replace specialized networks  left to do: embedded systems  need cost(CPU + network) < $10  cars  industrial (manufacturing) control  commercial buildings (lighting, HVAC, security; now LONworks)  remote controls, light switches  keys replaced by biometrics

9. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking New applications  New bandwidth-intensive applications  Reality-based networking  (security) cameras  Distributed games often require only low- bandwidth control information  current game traffic ~ VoIP  Computation vs. storage vs. communications  communications cost has decreased less rapidly than storage costs

10. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking Commercial access cost (T1)

11. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking Transit cost (OC-3, NY – London)

12. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking Disk storage cost (IDE)

13. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking Transition of networking  Maturity  cost dominates  can get any number of bits anywhere, but at considerable cost and complexity  casually usable bit density still very low  Specialized  commodity  OPEX (= people) dominates  installed and run by 'amateurs'  need low complexity, high reliability

14. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking Security challenges  DOS, security attacks  permissions-based communications  only allow modest rates without asking  effectively, back to circuit-switched  Higher-level security services  more application-layer access via gateways, proxies, …  User identity  problem is not availability, but rather over- abundance

15. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking Scaling  Scaling is only backbone problem  Depends on network evolution:  continuing addition of AS to flat space  deep trouble  additional hierarchy

16. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking QoS  QoS is meaningless to users  care about service availability  reliability  as more and more value depends on network services, can't afford random downtimes

17. 19-Aug-15Future of Networking Wildcards  Quantum computing  Teleportation