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PROCAMS 2005 Chris Chinnock Insight Media. It’s a Jungle Out There A 10,000 foot view of the competitive landscape in consumer display markets.

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Presentation on theme: "PROCAMS 2005 Chris Chinnock Insight Media. It’s a Jungle Out There A 10,000 foot view of the competitive landscape in consumer display markets."— Presentation transcript:

1 PROCAMS 2005 Chris Chinnock Insight Media

2 It’s a Jungle Out There A 10,000 foot view of the competitive landscape in consumer display markets

3 Focus – Only market research firm with an exclusive focus on microdisplay-based products Products & Services – Newsletters – Reports – Conferences – Consulting Services Insight Media Overview

4 The TV Revolution is Underway CRT to Multiple Technologies – Thin CRTs – Projection Front and Rear CRT, LCD, DLP, LCOS technologies – LCD – Plasma 4:3 to 16:9 Analog to Digital Standard Definition to High Definition

5 Technology Battlegrounds 30”36”46”56”66” CRT RP CRT FP LCD PDP µD RP

6 The Weapons Screen Size Resolution Brightness Contrast Price Form Factor Cosmetics Features Training Promotion Brand Channel Supply Chain

7 Big Screen Displays Increasing ASPs rising too – How many industries can claim that?

8 The Buying Process Promotion, friends motivate into stores PDP-TVs attract most attention Price may push to – Different Technology – EDTV Consumer gets educated – Resolution, DVR, TiVo, home theater, etc. Leaves frustrated to learn more or give up

9 Retail Environment New brands popping up rapidly – Retailers, Chinese, Taiwanese, Korean, others New ways to buy TVs – E-tailers, PC/IT channel, warehouse clubs Consumers buy on: – Price – Image quality – Form factor, features & style Consumers don’t really care about technology

10 The After Purchase Reality Too complicated to set up Too complicated to operate/too many remotes DVDs/HDTV looks great NTSC looks bad Far more peculiarities to deal with than an ordinary TV

11 MD-TV Challenges Form factor/Cosmetics Viewing angle Brightness-contrast Lamp lifetime RPTV perceptions and awareness 3 microdisplay technologies Aggressive PDP-TV price downs Massive LCD-TV capacity investment

12 Home Front Projection Challenges Wide range in prices and quality of projectors – $1,300 to $13K – Potentially best $/screen size value Complicated system – Projector, screen, accessories Needs installation – Who will do this? Consumers need education – Who will do it? Requires significant floor space to sell it – Only acceptable for big margins

13 PDP-TV Challenges PDP-TV prices have come down ~30% in 2004 – Driven a surge in sales – Reductions continuing (25-30% for 2005 likely) Challenging profitability – Fujitsu sells to Hitachi – Some de-emphasizing PDP-TVs – others increasing promotion – Samsung SDI reports profitability problems for Q2 – LG backing off aggressive pricing plans Consolidation in manufacturing base probably coming

14 LCD-TV Challenges Gen 6 and Gen 7 fabs will bring enormous capacity online in 2005 – $2B investments – Need to push panels into market – History of cycles of over supply and rapid price declines If demand is not strong, cash flow problems develop, more price reductions to stimulate demand – Could see prolonged periods of losses Push to 40” and 50” LCD-TVs coming sooner than expected

15 The 42” Battle 40-44” DLP RPTV 40-44” 3LCD RPTV 42” EDTV PDP 42-43” HDTV PDP 40-42” HDTV LCD 1Q2005 4Q2004 Source: PMA March 2005 FPD & RPTV Tracking Services

16 Crushing Price Reductions RPTV price to drop by 18% from 2004 LCD price to drop by 40% PDP price to drop and 25% Margins will be squeezed at retail New business models will develop Some will loose money

17 MCG Optimistic Forecast

18 Forecast vs. Actuals (2004/2005)

19 MD-TV Forecast

20 MD-TV Realities Many are giving up on the 40-49” size range abandoning to PDP Many are lowering forecasts for MD-TV in 2005 CRT-RPTV is hanging on longer than expected

21 MD-TV Options Vertically integrate to reduce margin stacks from many components and assemblies Offer more aggressive pricing in 42” segment to stop PDP – $1,000 DLP-RPTV planned for 2006, but need to survive 2005 – Buy market share buy lowering prices with loss leader product

22 TV Prospects Everyone forecasting the big-screen TV segment grows much bigger – Requires a shift in consumer spending MD-RPTVs in the middle of very dynamic market turmoil – Addressing most challenges, but unclear how all will play out LCD and PDP have the momentum in sales volume Who wins? – Consumers Who looses? – Almost everyone else

23 Insight Media 3 Morgan Avenue Norwalk, CT 06851 USA 203-831-8464 203-838-8432 fax www.insightmedia.info

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26 DTC Forecast

27 US TV Size Trends (3MPO)

28 TV Market Size Total number of TVs WW in 2005 = 170M to 200M – Could grow to 215M by 2009


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