1. Mark Barrow Strategic Director: Development Birmingham City Council

2. Taking the Birmingham economy forward and supporting economic growth Part 1 - Global Scale !

3. Our position in a changing world ?

4. Population Growth Population changes 1750

5. Changes in Working-Age (15-64) Population 2005 – 2050, by Continent ContinentWAP in 2005 million WAP in 2050 million Change in WAP million Change in % Asia2583339881432% Africa5091300792156% Latin America+ Caribbean 35648913237% North America2232745022% Oceania2230941% Europe 1 499384-114-23% World41925875168240% Source: World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision: Medium Variant: United Nations

7. Workforce comparison ! The unit cost of 1 English worker = 20 Chinese = 18 Indian = 10 Latvian = 6 Polish Size of manufacturing workforce –China = 115 m+ –G7 combined = 53 m –USA = 14 m –UK =2.3m

8. Economic growth projections

9. Only 3.5% of UK exports go to China..?

10. Region2005 Actual Annual growth 2015 Projected Change Germany6.83.50%4.8-2 France5.94.80%4.7-1.2 Other EU2427.36.10%24.5-2.8 EU24405.50%34-6 EFTA4.67.20%4.6- Russia127.70% 5.7 4.7 Turkey0.78.80%0.80.1 Other Nr Europe2.24.30%1.7-0.5 Near Europe415.30%8.34.3 USA22.47.20%22.50.1 Other Americas6.78.60% 7.6 0.9 Americas29.27.60%30.21 China + Hong Kong3.212.50% 5.1 1.9 India1.112.60% 1.8 0.7 Japan3.31.00%1.8-1.5 Other Asia96.30%8.3-0.7 Asia16.57.50%170.5 Africa3.37.30%3.3- Australasia2.48.10%2.60.2 World100%7.20%100%- Breakdown of UK exports by value 80%+ of UK exports to low growth economies ?

11. Excellent international relationships are critical… Example #1 - China

12. The China market (1) Worlds biggest car market: –Approx 18m new cars sold in China last year –China produces over a 1m cars a month. Worlds largest mobile phone market: –over 950m + subscribers (20%) –highest internet usage, 500m+ users Worlds 2nd largest luxury goods market: –China has overtaken the US to become 2 nd after Japan.

13. Yingkou City, Lioning, China 17m. square foot Equivalent area of: –Entire City centre office stock –12 Bullrings Linking Birmingham Science Park Birmingham adding value in China…

14. So what does all this mean for Birmingham and for UK plc ?

15. Our future place in the world ! First division economy ? Diminishing global influence ? Smaller defence force Maturing traditional consumer markets Ageing UK population The burden of the state Tax / pension / health burdens UK rank within the world economy –2005 = 4 th –2010 = 7 th –2015 = 11 th –2020 = ? G7 - G8 - G20 What will our role and USP be ?

16. How does all this….? Shape how we support and help grow business Inform how we educate tomorrows workforce Affect how we up-skill today’s workforce Influence transport planning & investment Drive investment in digital infrastructure Help us understand what investors may want Affect our plans for investment and development Guide our international civic leadership role Point to opportunities for the people and businesses of Birmingham

17. Taking the Birmingham economy forward and supporting economic growth Part 2 - Local Scale !

18. Economic strength

19. Economic output by broad sector

20. Economic Performance GVA per Head at Current Prices (1998-2008) Share of GVA by industry, 1996-2008 Gross Value Added (GVA) measures the contribution to the economy of each individual producer, industry or sector in the UK. Average annual change: 4.3% (Birmingham) Average growth p.a. (%) Local GVA is persistently higher than the regional averageDeclines in the production segment has been replaced through growth in business services and public admin Source: Office of National Statistics

21. Positive view from investment market

22. Investment market by value of transactions

23. Locating green automotive #1

24. How are we going to stimulate economic development, create jobs and drive the social agenda ?

25. LEP 2020 Ambitions 100,000 new jobs £8.25bn increase in GVA Key sectors: –Advanced Manufacturing –Business & Financial Services –Clinical research & Med-tech –Creative & Digital –Low Carbon technology –Research & Development –Transport & Building Technologies Build a world class workforce

26. Local Enterprise Partnership – Private Sector Andy Street (Chairman) – Managing Director John Lewis Partnership Nick Bunker – President Kraft Foods & Cadbury, UK & Eire Brian Francis – Managing Director Tallent Auto David Eastwood – Vice Chancellor University of Birmingham Paul Heaven – Principal Blue Sky Finance Steve Hollis – (Vice Chairman) KPMG Midlands Chairman Alan Volkearts – Ops Director, Jaguar Land Rover David Kaye – ex-National Express Wade Lynn – Managing Director Cleone Foods (Island Delights) Rob Brown – Group Managing Director Roger Bullivant Ltd 2 million population 9 Local Authority areas 125,000 students

27. Enterprise Zone – Ver. 1.

28. Checkpoint #1 Over the next 15 years across the LEP area… Population will grow by 179,000 Additional households 108,000 Additional older people 84,000 Additional (net) jobs needed 48,000 Additional School places needed 36,695

29. Birmingham population issues

30. UK Immigration 43% Asia 35% Europe 22% Rest of World c.33% already UK citizens In 2010 the Net inflow was 245,000 ONS / IPS

31. Birmingham population profile

32. Birmingham Population 2026 ?

33. Population Change Projections - White and Caribbean populations expected to decline - Very strong growth in Pakistani / Bangladeshi population; - Modest Growth in Indian population - Also strong growth (from a low base) in African, Chinese and ‘Other’ ethnic groups (not charted) 33 Source: University of Manchester Ethnic Group Change 2011 - 2026 White -95,850 Caribbean -5,750 African +27,100 Indian +1,800 Pakistani +77,050 Bangladeshi +15,750 Chinese +4,550 Other +51,500 Total +76,150 Forecast Population Change 2011 - 2026 Chart: Indexed Population Growth 2001 = 100

34. Skills issues

35. Successful schools…

37. Skills Vital – Competitive Job Market Yet Skills Deficit exists in Birmingham 37 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey Chart: Working Age Population - % with No Formal Qualifications

38. Skills Vital – Competitive Job Market Source: ONS Annual Population Survey Chart: 20-24 Year Olds Educated to degree level or higher (NVQ4+)

39. Income

40. Relatively low household income GDHI per Head at 2009 Prices (1996-2009) Average annual change: 3.4% (Birmingham) Gross disposable household income (GDHI) represents the amounts of money individuals have available to spend on goods and services, to save or invest. Source: Office of National Statistics Household income growing at a positive 3.4% p.a

41. Employment

42. LEP Unemployment trend

43. Employment by ethnicity 16-64 yr population – males Highest Employment rates for the city are experienced by Indian males (73%) This is in contrast with the Pakistani / Bangladeshi male rate of 56%. White Male rate in Birmingham (71%) is still below the national figures for this group (76%). 43 Source: Annual Population Survey Note: Pakistani category = Pakistani & Bangladeshi

44. Employment by ethnicity 16-64 yr population – females Female employment rates differ sharply by ethnic group. Especially in comparison to the male rates. The Indian female employment rate is below the average (as opposed to the male rate). Pakistani / Bangladeshi rate is very low – with just over a quarter of working age women in employment (27.9%) 44 Source: Annual Population Survey Note: Pakistani category = Pakistani & Bangladeshi

45. Predicted Population Change 2011-26 - Working Age 16-64 LEP+48 Birmingham+52 Solihull+3 Lichfield+1 Bromsgrove+1 East Staffordshire+1 Cannock Chase Tamworth-2 Redditch-3 Wyre Forest-3 (000,s)

46. Enterprise

47. A city of entrepreneurs GEM Apps 2009 early stage entrepreneural ctivity Gem Survey 2010

48. Investing in Connectivity

52. A connected and smart city

53. SMART CITY Tele-healthcare Traffic routing & parking Birmingham “Oyster” Card Smartphone app’s Smart energy grid On demand learning Smart buildings 4G Network 100mb Ultrafast Broadband Using our buildings/highway assets A Smart City

54. A Sustainable City “Greenprint” Increasing access to finance for green investment Increasing energy & water efficiency Reducing carbon emissions Growing green tech companies Commercialising R&D Developing a base of green industry talent

55. the money bit …

56. Example investments… Airport expansion £ 125m Eastside & Snow Hill£ 300m Enterprise Zone£ 875m* Green housing retrofit£ 100m Highway/Lighting PFI£ 2,700m John Lewis £ 100m Library of Birmingham£ 190m Midland Metro £ 125m New Street Station£ 630m High Speed 2£ 1,500m * Total£ 6,520m

57. EXAMPLE #1 SOME NEW FINANCIAL TOOLS Tax Incremental Financing (TIF) Retention of local business rates ? Maximising & leveraging EU Funding Regional Growth Fund Sector Thematic B.I.D’s New Homes Bonus Social Impact Bonds Community Based Budgets

58. EXAMPLE #2 SUPPORTING BUSINESS Marketing & Business Birmingham Finance Birmingham (£10m loan + £10m Equity) Consolidating business advice & support – “Business Hub” Developing a ‘Supplier Park’ Offer for green and advanced manufacturing Science Park without walls Support programmes for entrepreneurs & first time business Creating a global profile & forming strong relationships

59. We will…. set in place a globally competitive business climate be home to more world class industry clusters accelerate investment in strategic transport & digital infrastructure be a global leader in sustainability provide regional/national leadership enable & maintain a high quality of life be the easiest place in the UK to do business

60. Please boast about Birmingham !

61. Thank you ! mark.barrow@birmingham.gov.uk