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PDW Review Of RCL 1/2015. Summary Recommend ¼ to ½ purchase at this time Place on a “Watch List” and buy on any corrections (<$75 mid point, 60 to 90)

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Presentation on theme: "PDW Review Of RCL 1/2015. Summary Recommend ¼ to ½ purchase at this time Place on a “Watch List” and buy on any corrections (<$75 mid point, 60 to 90)"— Presentation transcript:

1 PDW Review Of RCL 1/2015

2 Summary Recommend ¼ to ½ purchase at this time Place on a “Watch List” and buy on any corrections (<$75 mid point, 60 to 90) Missed a great entry point at $58 back at Oct 12 – 40% run from Oct to current Lots of good news already in the stock price Current risk/reward at low 80s – down 20 (Oct 14 lows), up 10 (price targets) Analyst are neutral, stock price targets are in low 90s Longer fundamentals look positive, P/E fully valued, PEG strong buy Solid US (Miami) based No. 2 cruse line with world wide exposure Relatively higher debt (2x) Carnival is a mild concern Excellent list of institutional owners Tech indicators say neutral to close to over bought Cuba opening may offer growth area Low oil prices (positive), increasing interest rates/strong dollar (positive for US cruisers), slowing world economy (neutral – cruisers tend to be a more affluent demo) Richard Fain (CEO) has 35 yrs and Jason Liberty (CFO) has 10 yrs experience, well trained and lots of shipping industry experience.

3 Profile 1 Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. 1050 Caribbean Way Miami, FL 33132 United States - Map Phone: 305-539-6000Map Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd. operates as a cruise company worldwide. It owns six cruise brands comprising Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, Pullmantur, Azamara Club Cruises, CDF Croisières de France, and TUI Cruises. The Royal Caribbean International brand provides cruise itineraries ranging from 2 to 18 nights with options for onboard dining, entertainment, and other onboard activities. The Celebrity Cruises brand offers cruise itineraries ranging from 3 to 18 nights various destinations; and operates onboard upscale ships that offer accommodations, fine dining, personalized services, and spa facilities. The Azamara Club Cruises brand offers cruise itineraries ranging from 4 to 18 nights that serve the up-market segment of the North American, the United Kingdom, and Australian markets. The Pullmantur brand provides cruise itineraries ranging from 4 to 12 nights with various cruising options and onboard activities for couples and families traveling with children. The CDF Croisières de France brand provides seasonal itineraries to the Mediterranean serving the French cruise market. The TUI Cruises brand provides onboard activities, services, shore excursions and menu offerings for the German cruise market. As of February 5, 2014, the company operated a total of 41 ships with an additional 6 under construction contracts on approximately 490 destinations on 7 continents. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.

4 Profile 2 – RCL is No.2, best EPS, PEG < 1 is strong buy, P/S in line with CCL

5 Recent News – Also positive WSJ article (15% 2015 return predicted), – Cuba opportunities, major fuel savings in 2015, recent RCL downgrades, some analysts say Carnival is overall better

6 Key Stats RCL CCL Trailing P/E =28 (fully valued) 25 Forward (5 yr) P/E=17 (LT BUY) 14 PEG(5 yr)=0.81 Strong BUY.90 Debt/Equity=78 (High) 35 Short Float %= 3 (No squeeze) 3 Book Value = $40.5/sh 32.4 Current P/E comparable to best in sector CCL Future – Med long term buy with a 17 P/E and Strong Buy w/PEG of O.81 Profit margins similar to CCL Gross profit s flat over last 2011-13 yrs, expect 14-15 to gap higher Operating & net income down over 2011-13, expect 14-15 to gap higer Selling, operations & other costs flat over 2011-13 Relative higher debt vs CCL a minor concern w/rising interest rates

7 Good list of large institutional investors – they will likely drive how the stock behaves, no whales or activists

8 Analysts – Close to fully valued, neutral/hold

9 Tech Stats RCL (6 mo view) Stock price has been parabolic over the last few years and in recent few months Recent (6 mo) trough is ~60 (support), price target is low 90s Well above the 50 day moving aver MFI – 63 and slight trend up (neutral to positive) MACD – flat (neutral ) RSI – 67 (70 is overbought)


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