1. Value Judgment of the Sense of Security for Nursing Care Robots Based on the Prospect Theory under Uncertainty Hiroyuki Tamura 1 and Yoshitomo Miura 2 1 Faculty of Engineering, Kansai University 2 Graduate School of Engineering Science, Osaka University Presently with NTT Kansai Docomo This work was supported by the MEXT under Grant-in-Aid for Creative Scientific Research (Project No. 13GS0018).

2. Outline Motivation Former studies Prospect theory Prospect theory under uncertainty Experiments  Case 1  Case 2 Conclusion

3. Motivation (1) The number of people who need care is increasing every year. It is estimated that more than 4% of Japanese will need care in 2025. The number of nurses is smaller than required. Aging society More research and development of nursing care robots is urgently required.

4. Motivation (2) Nursing care robots mean robots that make some contribution to people who need care. Most of nursing care robots have mechanical shape and limited functions. Nursing care robots which have shape like human and various functions are under research.

5. Motivation (3) We would like to know:  Do nursing care robots really give us sense of security?  How much sense of security do nursing care robots give us?  What type of nursing care robots will give us sense of security the most? We use utility theoretic approaches for evaluation.

6. Former studies (1) In our former studies we tried to evaluate the sense of security provided by nursing care robots: 1) the society that nursing care robots do not exist 2) the society that a certain type of nursing care robots are popular

7. Former studies (2) Outcomes and their probabilities 1) Society 1 ： Nursing care robots do not exist 2) Society 2 ： Nursing care robots exist Outcome Probability Society 1Society 2 No cares0.350.25 Care by family0.35 Care by nurse0.30 Care by robot00.10 Attributes 1) Care level 2) Cost 3) Sense of intimacy 4) Hesitation for carer

8. Former studies (3) Respondents of the questionnaire  All 9 people live in Ikeda city, Osaka, Japan.  7 of them are participating nursing care activities.  4 of them have a family who needs care. Characteristics of robots Care levelAppearanceCost per month Robot ALimitedMechanical6,000yen Robot BLimitedHumanoid6,000yen Robot CLimitedHumanoid30,000yen Robot DTalkHumanoid6,000yen Robot ETalkHumanoid30,000yen Robot FGeneralMechanical30,000yen Robot GGeneralHumanoid30,000yen Robot A and Robot E are the robots that exist actually.

9. Former studies (4) An example of the evaluation Prospect Theory (PT) with Weak Difference Independence (WDI) describes her preference the best. RobotNoABCDEFG EU (DI)0.5970.6810.6200.5940.5800.5540.5860.588 EU (WDI)0.8250.8320.8380.8300.8180.8020.8200.826 PT (DI)0.6150.7410.7450.6940.6670.6150.6780.682 PT (WDI)0.7970.9330.9440.9260.9030.8720.9010.918 CPT (DI)0.5430.5300.5340.5420.5190.4680.5300.534 CPT (WDI)0.6980.7540.7650.7530.6910.6590.6890.751 Colored values are of important alternatives in her ranking in questionnaire: red: the worst, green: the best, brown: the worst except for “no robot”

10. Prospect Theory (PT) (1) In Prospect Theory (PT), the value of the prospect which yields outcome with probability where is evaluated by : weighting function : value function

11. Prospect Theory (PT) (2) Value function is: Concave in gain domain, convex in loss domain →People’s decision making is loss averse. Steeper in loss domain →The value for loss seems greater than that for the same amount of gain.

12. Prospect Theory (PT) (3) Weighting function is: Convex →Small probability is weighted larger →Middle or large probability is weighted smaller Not defined near the end point 0 and 1

13. Prospect theory under uncertainty (1) We develop PT under uncertainty using the basic probability of Dempster-Shafer theory. The value of a prospect is evaluated by : basic probability, : set element : weighting function for basic probability : value function for a set element

14. Prospect theory under uncertainty (2) If is not a set element but a single element: If includes more than or equal to two elements: denotes an index of pessimism such that the following two alternatives are indifferent: Alternative 1. One can receive for the worst case and for the best case. There exists no other information. Alternative 2. One receives with probability and receives with probability, where : the worst outcome, : the best outcome

15. Prospect theory under uncertainty (3) If includes more than two elements: Unknown parameters are decided by if : the imaginary element whose value is equal to the average values of

16. Experiments Case 1. When you request the nursing care center to care you, you do not know whether you will get a human nurse or a nursing care robot. Case 2. When you ask to borrow a nursing care robot from the nursing care center or the government, you do not know what type of robot will care you. Outcome Probability Society 1Society 2 No cares0.350.25 Care by family0.35 Care by nurse0.30 Care by robot00.10 0.40 Outcome Probability Society 1Society 2 No cares0.350.25 Care by family0.35 Care by nurse0.30 Care by robot A ⋮ Care by robot G 0⋮00⋮0 0.10

17. Experiments - Case 1 (1) The value V 1 of society 1 and the value V 2 of society 2 : : no cares : care by family : care by nurse : care by robot : value function for a set element

18. Experiments - Case 1 (2) An example of value judgment RobotSituation 1Situation 2 No0.768 A0.8540.720 B0.8580.730 C0.8340.702 D0.8240.674 E0.7940.627 F0.8850.757 G0.8880.766 This individual actually thinks that if some probabilities are unknown he does not want to take the nursing care service by robot. Situation 1: All probabilities are known. Situation 2: Some probabilities are unknown.

19. Experiments - Case 2 (1) The value V 1 of society 1 and the value V 2 of society 2 : : no cares : care by family : care by nurse : the set includes cares by various robots : value function for a set element

20. Experiments - Case 2 (2) An example of value judgment RobotValue No0.768 A0.854 B0.858 C0.834 D0.824 E0.794 F0.885 G0.888 Unknown0.835 This individual actually thinks that he will rent a nursing care robot anyway, but if a type of the robot is unknown the value for the service will be small.

21. Conclusion We could extend PT to PT under uncertainty and evaluated quantitatively the value of the sense of security provided by nursing care robots for the case where probabilities for some outcomes are unknown. We showed that the results of evaluation coincide with actual individual’s preference well. We found that people feel anxious if the values of probability are not clear.

22. Further studies Value judgment for group or society based on group utility function, etc. Value judgment by using value function under uncertainty which can be applied to more general cases. Ex. Case-based decision theory under uncertainty without using any probability.