1. Changes in Mediterranean Sea water cycle and implications for water mass characteristics CIRCE – WP5.4 Annarita Mariotti, ENEA and ESSIC Did somebody say change..?

2. Mediterranean Sea water cycle climatology Sea dM/dt=G+B+R-(E-P) E-P-R-B ~ G in annual mean Atmosphere dW/dt=E-P-D E-P ~ D in annual mean Fresh water flux R-(E-P)

3. Mediterranean fresh water flux variability 15% fresher? Issues: uncertainties regional details future changes implications for the sea

4. Scientific questions What is our benchmark to judge future changes in the Mediterranean Sea water cycle? What variations have been recently observed and how have they affected the sea? What are the likely changes to be expected in future climatic scenarios? How will the sea be affected by these changes?

5. WP5.4 Goals/Tasks Document changes in the Mediterranean Sea water cycle under the various climate change scenarios and investigate the effects on water mass characteristics. –Task 5.4.1: Diagnosing Mediterranean water cycle changes and implications for water mass characteristics –Task 5.4.2: River discharge into the Mediterranean Sea and estimation of the associated nutrient load

6. Workplan Task 5.4.1 Diagnose climatology of Mediterranean water cycle in recent decades Investigate interannual/decadal variability –Relationship to large-scale atmospheric variability and changes in sea surface conditions. –Anomalous periods for major Mediterranean sub-regions. Investigate changes in the Mediterranean water cycle in future "target" periods and implications for the sea

7. Datasets Satellite based estimates of P (CMAP, GPCP) and E (GSSTF2, HOAPS). River discharge data (GRDC, MedHycos) (task 5.4.2) Atmospheric circulation from observational datasets (HadSLP) and re-analyses (ERA40, NCEP) Oceanic data: SST from HadSST, various data from re-analyses and WOD05. Model results for current climate and for scenarios (IPCCAR4 models and CIRCE RCMs results)

8. Links to other WPs/RLs Usage of river discharge from task 5.4.2 Usage of climatic data from the database of RL1 Understanding will benefit from/complement results of WP5.1 and WP5.2 as well as those from RL1, RL2.

9. Milestones – 12 mo Observationally based climatologies for the atmospheric branch of the Mediterranean Sea water cycle Definition of major controls on net evaporation Estimates of the oceanic water cycle component as a residual. Deliverable – 18 mo: Climatological estimates of Mediterranean Sea water cycle components