1. Globalisation – the Future Where the wind blows

2. A Global Re-think For 150+ years, globalisation has had the West at its Centre – colonisation, imperialism and western capitalism Push and pull from the west – pull in oil, copper and coffee beans; push out Coke, Starbucks and Sherlock Holmes Now the world has two focal areas: New York/Berlin and Beijing/Mumbai

3. The past was about: Finding, cheap, plentiful supplies of commodities Finding sources of cheap, plentiful labour (China = cheap manufacturing site) … and using to make products based on western R&D, branding and marketing E.g. Raleigh bikes – UK based and UK distributed, but made in China

4. The Future: Between now and 2030, 75% of the world’s growth will come from BRIC-M, the vast majority of which is from China and India Western firms will need to find a way to break into these markets – as VW and General Motors already have Globalisation therefore will change

6. Environmental backlash? Will global warming concerns force changes in government policy, e.g. re air travel and ‘air miles’? Are voters likely to vote for slower growth? More probably, will sharply rising commodity prices hit China and India’s growth rates – and world trade?

7. And the environment? Tonnes of CO 2 Total CO 2 per cap. p.a.M tonnes India1.25 1,400 China4.75 6,300 UK9.3 560 US 20.0 6,000 Russia 11.8 1,700 World 4.5 30,000 Source: Energy Information Administration 2009, see http://tonto.eia.doe.govhttp://tonto.eia.doe.gov

8. And the environment? Tonnes of CO 2 Total CO 2 per cap. p.a.M tonnes China 2007 4.75 6,300 China 2020* 10.13**14,400 *Constant intensity, i.e. in line with GDP **Assuming 6% GDP growth China 2020* 5.57 7,920 *45% lower intensity World 20074.50 30,000 World 20204.50 38,580 Source: Energy Information Administration 2009, see http://tonto.eia.doe.govhttp://tonto.eia.doe.gov

10. Chinese Foreign Currency Reserves

11. Currency Control

12. China Trade Surplus

14. Chinese Dominance of Rare Earth Metals

15. In 1992, Deng Xiaoping China’s President after Mao said: “There is oil in the Middle East; there is rare earth in China” Now, China accounts for around 97% of rare earth metal production Chinese Dominance of Rare Earth Metals