1. 1 Film Franchises and the Edwards-Buckmire Model: An Examination of the Financial Performance of Movie Sequels Jacob Ortega-Gingrich Advisor: Ron Buckmire

2. 2 Objectives Two Parts of Project Confirm that Edwards-Buckmire Model in its current unmodified state is is capable of modeling the post- release behavior of sequels with the same degree of accuracy as with original non-sequels. Examine how observed trends between the performance of sequels and their parent films can allow for better a priori prediction of the behavior of hypothetical future sequels

3. 3 Edwards-Buckmire Model

4. 4 Typical Solution Curves

5. 5 Part I: EBM and Sequels Comparing the accuracy of EBM in modeling sequels and non-sequels

6. 6 Non-sequel Film

7. 7 Non-Sequels

8. 8 Sequel

9. 9 Sequels

10. 10 Part II: Predicting the behavior of Sequels How observed trends between the performance of parent and sequel films can allow for improved a priori prediction of the behavior of sequel films

11. 11 Edwards-Buckmire Model

12. 12 Awareness and A 0 W: awareness level of the film A 0 : initial value of A b: film-specific parameter

13. 13 2005 non-sequels

14. 14 b values in parent-sequel pairs

15. 15 b in sequel-parent pairs

16. 16 b and time lag

17. 17 b and reception of parent

18. 18 b and reception of sequel

19. 19 b and cast continuity

20. 20 Project Summary Confirmation that EBM models sequels with a similar degree of accuracy as non-sequels  confirms that post-release behavior of sequels is identical to that of original non-sequels Method of a priori approximation of a sequel's behavior  relationship between A(0) and W  A(0) can be estimated for a sequel using the value of b from the parent film.

21. 21 References Edwards, David A., and Ron Buckmire. "A differential equation model of North American cinematic box-office dynamics." IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 12. (2001): 41-74. Print. Hennig-Thurau, Thorsten, Mark B. Houston, and Torsten Heitjans. "Conceptualizing and Measuring the Monetary Value of Brand Extensions: The Case of Motion Pictures." Journal of Marketing. 73. (2009): 167-183. Print. Data Taken From: Box-office Mojo (www.boxofficemojo.com): all weekly and final financial figureswww.boxofficemojo.com Rotten Tomatoes (www.rottentomatoes.com): H% figureswww.rottentomatoes.com Numerical solutions to the EBM generated using Wolfram Mathematica 7