1. Secondary School Bursaries Kenya impact Evaluation Team AFRICA IMPACT EVALUATION INITIATIVE, AFTRL Africa Program for Education Impact Evaluation

2. Questions Can secondary school bursaries improve secondary school attendance? What is the level of subsidy that is needed? How to effectively target students? Long term question: What is the impact of secondary school on later life outcomes (labor market; health, etc..)

3. Intervention Secondary school bursary partial or full Continued for 4 years of secondary school conditional on satisfactory behavior and minimum standard Bursary subsidy is a fraction of the district day school total cost (minus the tuition subsidy already in existence) Needs based: –School community does a ranking of students in standard 8 in primary school –Poverty map is used to determine the number of scholarships available to a school Merit based: –Need admission in a secondary school; based on KCPE results

4. Indicators Process: –How many bursaries were given? Short term impact: –Enrollment –Attendance –Drop out (Retention) Targetting: –How does this differ by gender? –How do the attendance rate differ by PRA wealth ranking Long term impact: –Labor market outcomes –Health outcomes –Social integration –Etc….

5. Evaluation Design Randomization at the school level All schools in the sample complete the needs assessment Schools are allocated to one of three groups: –Comparison( today’s system: Ks 3,600 tuition reduction + existing mainstream system) –Partial fellowship: 50% of day school fee minus tuition reduction –Full fellowship: 100% of day school subsidy minus tuition reduction

6. Sample and Data A small number of regions will be identified (3 max)-Possibilities: –Nairobi slums (urban) –Northeastern rural (outlying) –Western rural (rest of Kenya) Within each region it will be narrowed down to schools in poor areas.

7. Sample size calculation Assumptions –We are surveying the poorest children who have qualified for secondary school –Assume 25% of the poor children attend w/o scholarship (to be verified) –With full scholarship 90% will attend; with partial 60% will attend Results –So the effect of full scholarship on attendance is 90% minus 25%=65%; partial is 35%. Average effect is 50% –So if education increases income by 0.20 of standard deviation, effect size of the program is 0.20*65%=0.10 –Assume on average 6 students per school (about 20% of a class of 30) –We need 650 schools total: control 216, partial 216, full 216 –Total: 216*6*0.90=1166 full scholarships –216*6*0.65=842 partial scholarships

8. Staffing Plan

9. Timeline Cohort 1: –June/July 2007 Pilot Survey –June/July 2007: Selection of pilot primary schools (public or community schools both included) –September 2007: Secondary school forms +sensitization –October 2007 Community wealth ranking –November 2007 KCPE –December 2007: Baseline survey –January 2008: Secondary school admission –Randomization of schools in Full/partial/ control groups –Late January/ early February 2008: Bursary award announcement –February 2008 : entry in form 1

10. Timeline Cohort 2: –September 2008: Secondary school forms –October 2008 Community wealth ranking –November 2008 KCPE –December 2008: Baseline survey –January 2009: Secondary school survey –Late January/ early February 2009: Bursary award announcement –February 2009 entry in form 1

11. Timeline Process Follow up surveys: –Once a year starting 2008: enrollment status (perhaps done in former primary school) March- May of each year. –3 times a year starting : Spot checks in secondary school to check attendance –Endline surveys with many outcomes (labor market+health etc…) 2010-2011 2013-2014 2016-2017….

12. Budget