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STATE LAW RESOURCES, INC. FALL 2012 MEETING PANEL DISCUSSION: “The Future of Coal” Alexander Macia, Member Spilman Thomas & Battle, PLLC P.O. Box 273 Charleston, WV 25321-0273 Fax: (304) 340-3801 (304) 340-3835 amacia@spilmanlaw.com
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THE FUTURE OF COAL: AN OVERVIEW I.COAL BASICS II.COAL USES III.COAL FUTURE
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I.COAL BASICS
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COAL RESERVES ESTIMATED BY COUNTRY U.S.27.5% Russia18.3% China13.3% Other Non OECD – Europe & Eurasia 10.7% Australia & New Zealand 8.9% India7.0% OECD Europe6.5% Africa3.7% Central & South America0.9% Rest of World3.2% Source:U.S. Energy Information Admin., “International Energy Outlook 2011”
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MAJOR COAL DEPOSITS IN THE UNITED STATES Source:U.S. Energy Information Admin., “International Energy Outlook 2011”
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COAL PRODUCING REGIONS IN THE UNITED STATES Appalachian Coal Region – More than 1/3 of production – West Virginia is largest coal producing state in region (2nd in the U.S.) – End-users:power plants, steel mills and export Interior Coal Region – Texas largest producer in region – Illinois Basin coal is high sulfur Western Coal Region – Over ½ of all coal produced in United States – Wyoming is largest coal producer in region and United States – 9 of top 10 largest mines are in Wyoming – Black Thunder Mine and North Antelope Rochelle Mine together produce more coal than West Virginia
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COAL TYPES FOUND IN THE UNITED STATES ANTHRACITE – Highest carbon content (86-98%) – Heat value of @ 15,000 BTUs per pound – Used for home heating – Mined almost exclusively in North Eastern Pennsylvania BITUMINOUS – High carbon content (45-86%) – Heat value of 10,500-15,5000 BTUs per pound – Used for electricity generation and steel making (as coke) Subbituminous – Low carbon content (35-45%) – Heat value of 8,300-13,000 BTUs per pound – Used for electricity generation – Low sulfur – Located primarily in the Western States (Wyoming’s Powder River Basin) LIGNITE – Lowest carbon content (35-45%) – Heat value of @ 4,000-8,300 BTUs per pound – Used exclusively for electricity generation
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LARGEST COAL PRODUCERS IN THE UNITED STATES Controlling CompanyProduction (thousands short tons)Percent of Production Peabody Energy191,94317.7 Arch Coal, Inc.173,29516.0 Cloud Peak93,7348.6 Alpha Natural Resources80,6817.4 Consol Energy, Inc.61,2945.7 Alpha Appalachian Holdings*37,7933.5 * Formerly Massey Energy Co.
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HOW MUCH COAL IS LEFT? 2011 Annual Production: – 1.1 billion short tons Estimated Recoverable Reserves at Producing Mines: – 17.9 billion short tons Estimated Recoverable Reserves: – 259 billion short tons Demonstrated Reserve Base: – 484.5 billion short tons Total Coal Resources – @ 4 trillion short tons
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Or… – 239 years based upon current production and estimated recoverable reserves
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II.COAL USAGE But, in 1 st Quarter 2012 coal dropped to 36%
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III.COAL FUTURE Natural gas prices fell 7.5% in 2011 Mild winter 2011-2012 Increasing stockpiles Environmental Regulations create uncertainty
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Coal Plant Retirements Since 2010 – 106 coal plants (319 units) – 42,895 MW (13%) of fleet) – Average age: 50 + years THE ENERGY MARKET REACTS
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Spurred by Cheap Natural Gas – Development of shale gases increased production – Leading to drop in prices – 2008 was $12/1,000 cubic feet – 2012 now @ $4/1,000 cubic feet And…. PRICE PRESSURE INCREASES ON COAL PLANTS
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Mercury Air Toxics Standard – Issued Final Rule 12/11 and set numeric emission limits for mercury, toxic metals, and acidic gases – Applicable to new sources; targets coal plants – Compliance: 3 years from final rule (3/15) – EPA reconsidering new limits and taking further comments Cross State Air Pollution Rule – Requires states to set emission standards for power plants to reduce ozone and fine particle pollutions – Requiring upwind states to reduce only their own significant contributions to downwind states non-attainment – BUT, in EME Homer City Generation v. EPA, DC Circuit Court of Appeals struck down the rule for exceeding statutory authority – Petition for rehearing en banc is pending INCREASED ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS
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