1. WINFIELD GRIFFITH Caribbean Tourism Organization, July, 2009
OVERVIEW OF CARIBBEAN TOURISM IN THE CURRENT GLOBAL CRISIS – STATUS AND NEED FOR BETTER TOURISM STATISTICS
Presented by
WINFIELD GRIFFITH Caribbean Tourism Organization, July, 2009

2. Trends In CARICOM Tourism
Raw data on arrivals over the last two decades paint a clear picture.
Air arrivals increasing moderately, growing at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent.
Cruise visitors activity grew more rapidly, especially in recent years, moving at 5.3 percent annual average.

3. Visitor Arrivals 1989 – 2008

4. CARICOM TOURISTS ARRIVALS SO FAR THIS YEAR
15 (out of 20) Countries reported to date.
13 declined some by as much as 20+ %
Jamaica increased 3.2% in the first 5 months, while Guyana increased by 2.7% in the first 6 months.
Arrivals to Dominica increased during January, February and April; to Grenada and St. Vincent in January only and during April to St. Lucia. There were no other monthly increases.
Estimates suggest that arrivals to the sub region will fall by between 5.0% to 7.0 % during the first half of the year alone.
Short term prospects not promising

5. CRUISE TOURISM TRENDS Cruise capacity expected to rise sharply
Royal Caribbean & Carnival committed to launching new vessels in winter 2009
Including largest vessel afloat – pass
Competition will intensify as cruise lines are committed to providing 65,000 more beds in next two years – several mega liners
Implications for lower prices in an already depressed market

6. Magnitude of Visitor Spending in CARICOM
Visitor spending has actually out-stripped the growth in arrivals over the years
Two decades ago aggregate visitor spending in CARICOM stood at around US$4.0Bil
Spending rate recorded at annual average of 4.4 percent reaching total spend of over US$9.0Bil in the region in 2008.

7. Growth In CARICOM Visitor Arrivals & Expenditure 1992 – 2008

8. * Smith Travel Research 2007-08 & Jan-June, 2009
% CHANGE IN CARIBBEAN HOTEL OCCUPANCY AND ROOM REVENUE STATUS
* Smith Travel Research & Jan-June, 2009

9. CHALLENGES TO REGIONAL TOURISM
Protracted global economic instability
High cost and fierce competition causing tourism businesses to struggle, consequently:
- International airlines seating cutback
- Regional airlines under threat
- Hotels scaling down operations and laying off staff
- Marginalization of travel agencies
National tourism marketing efforts uninformed by sound and scientifically gathered data and intelligence
Threats of pandemics (e.g. A H1N1 virus) and other disasters natural and man made
Physical and administrative structure for maximizing benefits of specific activities (e.g. Yachts) not MAXIMIZED
Adoption of new Technology sluggish and superficial
The most important trend here is the growth in independent travel, by which we mean the broad range of travel outisde the pre-oackaged tour. Factors driving this trend include:
the consumer is now presented with the increased direct availability of low priced offers from scheduled airlines and charter seat operators
in Europe, where international travel has been long dominated by tour operators, independent travel is expected packaged vacations over the next 5 years (growing by 5.5% per annum according to a report by the Financial Times Management Group).
the increased use of direct marketing and database marketing techniques by airlines, cruise lines and big players in the hotel industry to track customers and stimulate repeat business.
growing use of the Internet to identify travel opportunities and options.
PRESENTATION - BUCKNELL UNIVERSITY - MAY 2009

10. Linkages and Leakages Imports, Profits, etc Visitor Expenditure
INFLOWS
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
OUTFLOWS
Imports,
Profits, etc
Direct Impact
Hotel
Restaurants
Taxis;
Duty-free
Ancillary activities
Indirect Impact
Goods and Services
Leakages is one of the unfortunate words in economics.
Induced Impact
PRESENTATION - BUCKNELL UNIVERSITY - MAY 2009

11. FIVE MAJOR AREAS OF IMPACT
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Value Added
- ranged from .62 to .83 for normal multipliers for visitor expenditure impact in five selected CARICOM countries studied
Balance of Payments
Visitor expenditure fell between 10.7 and 38.6 percent of imports of goods and services.
Employment
- jobs supported by tourism ranged from 12.5% to 50.9 % of the employed labour force in these selected countries
Government Revenue
Government revenue attributed to visitor spending ranged from 9.3% to 40.8% with a modal value of 20%
Investment

12. PROGNOSIS
Continued negative growth in arrivals and aggregate visitor spend into first half of next year
Some further declines in Region’s economies
Expected negative impacts in the five areas described earlier.

13. NEED FOR VITAL STATISTICS
Speculation is rife with respect to actual result of the global crisis and other realities on tourism in the respective economies
Vital need for countries to produce a hard core of tourism performance statistics on a consistent and regular basis
Better information needed for planning, policy making, sensible regulation & marketing
Need to introduce and maintain some new systems or the revisiting of old ones which may need improvement

14. Tourism Satellite Accounts
Urgent need to commence the establishment of the Caribbean Tourism Satellite Accounts Programme (CTSAP)
Mandated by CARICOM heads in 2008 that CARICOM Secretariat collaborate with CARTAC, the CTO, ECCB and other regional institutions in assisting Member States to establish the TSA...”
CTO coordinated an initial meeting of Caribbean agencies interested in the implementation of Tourism Satellite Accounting (TSA) systems in the region back in May
The meeting included representatives from the CDB, OECS, ECCB, UWI/SALISES and CARTAC and a written submission from the CARICOM secretariat.
Major decision was a commitment to continue or initiate specific roles in the TSA implementation process and to work within an established regional framework in that respect.

15. CTSAP PLANNING ACTIVITIES
Conducted initial agency meeting
CTO conducted a TSA Readiness Assessment and Implementation Plan
Approached funding agencies (OAS, IDB) -now more interested than ever

16. Key Tourism Performance Indicators
Hotel Performance and expectations (based on forward bookings)
– Occupancy Rates
- Average Room Rates
- Revenue Per Available Room
- Total Available Rooms
- Advance bookings
Carrier Performance Indicators
– Seating Capacity
- Load Factors
- Average Airfares, etc.
Tourism Prices Indices
- Consumer prices
- Producer prices

17. Capacity Building and Resource sharing must be vigorously pursued
PARTNERSHIPS
Establish links with key institutions and stakeholders regionally and internationally
COORDINATION
Working Group of regional agencies, stats offices, tourism offices and key private sector entities
Capacity Building and Resource sharing must be vigorously pursued
WAY FORWARD

18. Thank You
for your attention
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