1. Chapter 12 The Campaigns, Elections, and Voting Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 American Government 2006 Edition (to accompany the Essentials Edition) O’Connor and Sabato

2. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 Types of Elections  Primary Elections: Election in which voters decide which of the candidates within a party will represent the party in the general election.  Closed primary: a primary election in which only a party’s registered voters are eligible to vote.  Open primary: a primary in which party members, independents, and sometimes members of the other party are allowed to vote.  Crossover voting: participation in the primary of a party with which the voter is not affiliated.  Raiding: An organized attempt by voters of one party to influence the primary results of the other party.

3. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 General Elections  General elections are those in which voters decide which candidates will actually fill elective public offices.  In presidential elections voters look for: Leadership and character. Base their judgments on foreign policy and defense issues that do not arise in state and local elections.

4. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 Initiative, Referendum, and Recall  Initiative An election that allows citizens to propose legislation and submit it to the state electorate for popular vote 24 states and D.C. use the initiative  Referendum An election whereby the state legislature submits proposed legislation to the state’s voters for approval  Recall Voters can remove an incumbent from office by popular vote. Are very rare

5. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 Presidential Elections  Primary elections or caucuses are used to elect national convention delegates which choose the nominee. Winner-take-all primary Proportional representation primary Proportional representation with bonus delegates primary; beauty contest with separate delegate selection; delegate selection with no beauty contest Caucus

6. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 The Party Conventions  Out-of-power party holds its convention first, in late July, followed in mid-August by party holding the presidency.  Conventions were decision-making body in the 19 th century.  Today the convention is fundamentally different. Nominations settled well in advance of the convention.

7. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 The Nomination Campaign: Selecting the Delegates  Unit Rule A traditional party practice under which the majority of a state delegation can fore the minority to vote for its candidate  Abolished by the Democrats New Democratic party rule decrees that state’s delegates be chosen in proportion to the voters cast in its primary or caucus. (30% of votes = 30% delegates from that state) – proportional allocation Superdelegates  Delegate slot to the Democratic Party’s national convention that is reserved for an elected party official Some rules originating in Democratic Party have been enacted as state laws thus applying them to the Republican Party as well.

8. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 The Nomination Campaign: Who are the Delegates?  Parties draw delegates from an elite group Higher income and educational levels  Differences between parties 40% Democratic delegates were minorities; 50% women (1980 rule requires half state delegation be female) Only 17% Republican delegates were minorities. Up from 9% in 2000.

9. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 The General Election Campaign  After the party’s nomination candidates see support of groups and voters  Money and endorsements  The brief theme, “slogan”

10. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 The Personal Campaign  An effort to meet the public and convince them of their leadership qualities  Grueling schedule  Symbolic

11. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 The Organizational Campaign  Behind-the-scenes business to fund and support candidate  Voter canvass  Get out the vote  Campaign manager  Campaign consultants

12. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 The Media Campaign  Communications director  Press secretary  Media consultants Paid media Free media Positive ads/negative ads Contrast ads Spot ads Inoculation ads

13. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 The Electoral College  Representatives of each state who cast the final ballots that actually elect a president  Total number of electors for each state equal to the number of senators and representatives that a state has in the U.S. Congress  District of Columbia is given 3 electoral votes.

14. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 Figure 13.2 The States Drawn in Proportion to Their Electoral College Votes

15. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 The Electoral College  Result of compromise Selection by Congress versus direct popular election  Three essentials to understanding the design of the Electoral College: Constructed to work without political parties. Constructed to cover both the nominating and electing phases of presidential selection. Constructed to produce a nonpartisan president.

16. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 The Electoral College in the 19 th Century  12 th Amendment (1804) Attempt to remedy the confusion between the selection of vice presidents and presidents that emerged in the election 1800 Provided for separate elections for each office, with each elector having only one vote to cast for each In event of a tie, the election still went to the House. Top three candidates go to House. Each state House delegation casts one vote.

17. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 The Electoral College Today  Apportionment matters.  Representation of states in the Electoral College is altered every ten years to reflect population shifts.  Recent apportionment has favored the Republicans.  With the exception of California, George W. Bush carried all of the states that gained seats in 2000.

18. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 The Electoral College: Three Major Reform Ideas  Abolition  Congressional District Plan  Keep the College, Abolish the Electors

19. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 Patterns of Presidential Elections  Party Realignments A shifting of party coalition groupings in the electorate that remains in place for several elections Critical elections  An election that signals a party realignment through voter polarization Six party realignments in U.S. history; three associated with tumultuous elections  1860  1890s  1928-1936  Secular Realignments The gradual rearrangement of party coalitions, based more on demographic shifts than on shocks to the political system

20. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 Congressional Elections  Very different from presidential elections Lesser known candidates, more difficulty getting media attention  Incumbency Advantage When incumbents lose it is generally due to:  Redistricting Gerrymandering  Scandals  Coattails

21. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 Midterm Congressional Elections  Election takes place in the middle of a presidential term President’s party usually loses seats in midterms Tendency for voters to punish the president’s party more severely in the sixth year of an eight year presidency  Retrospective voting  Senate elections less inclined to the 6 th year itch 2002 midterm elections were an exception  Bush picked up seats in the House and Senate

22. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 Campaign Finance  Federal Campaign Act (FECA)  Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA) McConnell v. FEC - government’s interest in preventing political party corruption overrides the free speech rights to which the parties would otherwise be entitled

23. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 Sources of Political Contributions  2004: $3.9 billion spent on presidential and congressional elections  Individual contributions Max: $2,000 per election Limit: $45,750 to all candidates combined in calendar year Strict disclosure laws ($10,000 to air “electioneering communication”)

24. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 Political Action Committees (PAC)  Officially recognized fund-raising organizations allowed by law to participate in federal elections  2004: $266 million to Senate and House candidates  36% of campaign funds of House and 18% of Senate

25. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 Other sources of contributions  Political party  Member-to-candidate  Candidates’ personal funds  Public funds  Independent expenditures  The Internet  Soft Money and issue advocacy advertisements

26. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 Voting Behavior  Patterns in Voter Turnout Turnout: the proportion of the voting-age public that votes 40% of the eligible adult population votes 25% are occasional voters  Voters tend to be more educated  More voters have higher incomes  Younger people vote less  Whites vote more regularly than African Americans – related to income and educational differences in the two groups  Hispanics vote less than African Americans Have potential to wield much influence given their increasing size  Those interested in politics vote more

27. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 How America Votes

28. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 Why Is Voter Turnout So Low?  Too Busy  Difficulty of Registration  Difficulty of Absentee Voting  Number of Elections  Voter Attitudes  Weak Political Parties

29. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 Patterns in Vote Choice  Race and Ethnicity Whites tend to vote Republican African Americans vote overwhelmingly for Democrats Hispanics also tend to identify with and vote for Democrats  Kerry 53 percent; Bush 44 percent Women today more likely to support Democratic candidates Poor vote less often and more for Democrats Well-to-do vote more often and for Republicans Ideology related closely to vote choice  Conservatives for Republicans  Liberals for Democrats

30. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 Bringing it Together: The 2004 Presidential Campaigns and Elections  The Party Nomination Battle The incumbent: George W. Bush The Democrat’s race  Lieberman  Gephardt  Graham  Kerry  Edwards  Sharpton  Kucinich  Dean  Moseley Braun

31. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 2004: The Democratic Convention  John Kerry  John Edwards as running mate Attempt to balance the ticket  Emphasis on national security  Kerry’s personal history of service  Post convention bounce not as good as expected

32. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 2004: The Republican Convention  Incumbent: George W. Bush  Would Cheney continue as Vice President? (yes)  Held in New York City (a heavy liberal city) highlighted 9/11 and national security  Protests in the streets comprised of thousands of people from around the nation

33. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 2004: The Presidential Debates  Three presidential debates  One vice-presidential debate  The presidential debates were considered mainly won by Kerry - making the playing field even going into the final days of the campaign

34. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 2004: The Fall Campaign and General Election  Foreign affairs played a great role in the contest  Key states: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Iowa, and Wisconsin

35. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 2004: Election Results  National Election Pool (NEP)  Kerry carried a lead in the exit polls up until the final moments  Ohio: Bush led by 100,000 votes with provisional ballots uncounted

36. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 2004: Turnout  Highest turnout rate since 1968  Minnesota had a high voter turnout of 76.2%  Youth came out in battleground states  Third-party not a factor