BitCoin & the Disruptive Potential of Cryptocurrency

BitCoin & the Disruptive Potential of Cryptocurrency
April, 4th 2014 Stefano Grazioli

Objective: Assessing BitCoin’s disruptive potential
What is it? What is its business value?

There are No BitCoins

BitCoin “it’s a method of transmitting money”
“Stay away from it,” Buffett responded. “It’s a mirage basically, it’s a method of transmitting money, it’s a very effective way of transmitting money and you can do it anonymously and all that… a check is a way of transmitting money, too. Are checks worth a whole lot of money?” Buffett also compared Bitcoin to a “very fast money order.”

A distributed ledger that tracks fund transfers among accounts
No Central authority to verify transfers or to mediate disputes. Anybody can obtain accounts for free Anybody can see the ledger Transfers are free/very cheap Transfers are irreversible ‘Block Chain’

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mt. Gox bankrupt Nov.08 Nakamoto paper
Silk Road shut down by the FBI IRS recognizes BTC as property Jan.09 Bitcoin (BTC) is launched German finance ministry recognizes BTC as a unit of account ‘09 BTC trades at $0.14

Use of BitCoin follows a pre-existing business agreement
SAM the consumer Account ABC123 with secret key Secret123 RHONDA the merchant Account XYZ678 “I accept BitCoin Payment 12 roses = 0.1 BTC Account: XYZ678” “Please send 12 roses to 839 Hilton Rd., Cville, VA. I am sending a transaction (from ABC123)”

Fund transfers use public key cryptography to insure non-repudiation and integrity
SAM the consumer Account ABC123 with secret key Secret123 RHONDA the merchant Account XYZ678 Transaction Transfer of funds Sender: ABC123 Transfer to: XYZ678 Amount: 0.1 BTC Digital Signature: 973sdskhu9dft Proof of BTC ownership Sender: RST234 Transfer to: ABC123 Amount: 5 BTC

Transactions are propagated through a P2P network
SAM the consumer Account ABC123 RHONDA the merchant Account XYZ678 BitCoin P2P client network Transaction Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature

The peers verify the ownership of funds using the block chain
BitCoin P2P client network Unverified transactions Verified transactions Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Check Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature ‘Locked’ into the next block of the Block Chain Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature ‘Block Chain’ of verified transactions

Once in the block chain, the transaction is irreversible
RHONDA the merchant Account XYZ678 Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature

Bitcoin Strategic Analysis

Network Analysis is a better fit than Porter’s Five Forces for many Internet businesses.
Consumers Content Providers Google Platform Network Effect = when the value of a service changes for the user, based on how many others adopt it. Advertisers 1) Consumers: 132 mil /day (end 11/2007) – reveal preferences – consume ads – users of new products 2) Developers: internal and external – generate revenue – sustain excitement 3) Advertisers 4) Content interest, delivery mechanisms for ads, community Also Salesforce as an example Based on Iyer & Davenport HBR 2008

We will apply Network Analysis to assess BitCoin’s business potential
Users Miners BitCoin Platform Services: Wallets & Exchanges Merchants Based on Iyer & Davenport HBR 2008

Users and Merchants An awkward experience

BTC has a poor value proposition for buyers and sellers
SAM the consumer RHONDA the merchant Low Transaction Costs Semi-anonymous Irreversible 10-minute confirmation Volatile Difficult legal remediation Taxed as property

The same characteristics make BTC attractive for dishonest players
Low Transaction Costs Semi-anonymous Irreversible 10-minute confirmation Volatile Difficult legal remediation Taxed as property

Reward Schema Introduce a Serious Flaw
Miners Reward Schema Introduce a Serious Flaw

Verification (‘Mining’) includes a reward to the Miner
BitCoin P2P client Network Unverified Transactions Verified Transactions Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Check Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Newly minted BTC that is owned by the miner Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Every 2,016 blocks, or roughly every two weeks, the system calculates how long it would take for blocks to be created at precisely 10-minute intervals, and resets a difficulty factor in the calculation accordingly. As equipment gets faster, in short, mining gets harder. ‘Block Chain’ of verified Transactions

Many Miners compete to create the next block and reap the reward
BitCoin P2P client Network Unverified Transactions Verified Transactions Check Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Check Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Check Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Check Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature ‘Locked’ into the next block of the Block Chain Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Check Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Check Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Proof of ownership Digital Signature Transfer of funds Digital Signature Proof of ownership ‘Block Chain’ of verified Transactions

Mining requires solving cryptopuzzles by brute-force methods
Application Specific Integrated Circuit 1 ASIC = 70,000 Intel CPUs HashFast’s Eduardo deCastro says, “It would take 70,000 of Intel’s fastest chips to match one of ours.” (cost $15k) Source: HashFast

Mining activity is determined by hard economics
Avalon ASIC Miner 75 GigaHash/sec Network speed: 140 TeraHash 0.05% of BTC network 0.05% of 3600 BTC /day = BTC /day $200/day Source: Dec data self-reported by a miner

BTC has a good value proposition for miners in the short term
“Printing money” Rewards ingenuity Rapid depreciation

Malicious mining pools can rig the ledger
“The system is secure as long as honest nodes collectively control more CPU power than any cooperating group of attacker nodes” – Satoshi Nakamoto Hashrate distribution from BitcoinX.com, Apr. 2014 At 3:00 AM on January 9, a mining collective known as GHash.IO accounted for 45% of all Bitcoin computing power. A mere six percentage points more, and the collective would have controlled a majority of the computing power – effectively hijacking Bitcoin as a result. With more than 50% control, they’d have the ability to confirm all Bitcoin transactions on their own. And suddenly, the potential for manipulation and fraud would immediately exist. Source:

Exchanges & Wallet Services
Weakest point in the BitCoin Ecosystem

Wallet services companies build software that makes Bitcoin easier to use
1,100,000 consumer wallets 28,000 merchants U.S. bank integration Source: coinbase.com Apr 2014

Exchanges trade BTC for other currencies
Retrieved from the wayback machine Source: The wayback machine

Mark Karpeles, CEO of Tibanne Co.
Mt. Gox is no Ft. Knox Feb 7 – suspended withdrawals Feb 28 - Bankruptcy 850K BTC missing 7% of the BTC supply No FDIC Mark Karpeles, CEO of Tibanne Co. Greene v. Mt. Gox Inc., 14-cv-01437, U.S. District Court, Northern District of Illinois

The BTC platform is unsecure at its outer edges
Sheep Marketplace lost $6 mil Black Market Reloaded lost 200 BTCs Silk Road 2.0 lost $2-6 mil Flexcoin forced to close after hackers stole $590,000 Inputs.io (storage) was compromised and hackers stole 4,100 bitcoins ($1.2 million) in two separate attacks. MyBitcoin and Instawallet, have both shut down due to thefts 1-4 Source: “BitCoin Illusion,” Fabio Scacciavillani, Il FattoQuotidiano, 9 marzo 2014 5 source: 6 source: “a fistful of bitcoins”

BTC has a fair value proposition for Wallet Services and Exchanges
Low transaction costs Semi-anonymous Irreversible Security Volatile Difficult legal remediation Taxed as property

“Stay Away!” - Warren Buffett
Conclusion “Stay Away!” - Warren Buffett

For the general public BitCoin has low usefulness and ease of use
Users Miners BitCoin Platform Services: Wallets & Exchanges Merchants

BitCoin has strong network effects
Users Miners BitCoin Platform Services: Wallets & Exchanges Merchants

Services: Wallets & Exchanges
Users are the engine for BitCoin’s growth, but do not have sufficient reasons to adopt it Users Miners BitCoin Platform Services: Wallets & Exchanges Merchants

As a currency, BTC scores well below the Dollar
Jevons’ Functions of Money USD BTC Ideal crypto currency Medium of exchange - recognized / accepted Store of value - constant intrinsic value, or linked to a basket of goods - safe Unit of account - standard unit of measurement for the value of goods, services, or assets (e.g., Euro , UF in Chile) Standard of payment - enforceable legal tender Commodity money is money whose value comes from a commodity of which it is made. Commodity money consists of objects that have value in themselves as well as value in their use as money. Examples of commodities that have been used as mediums of exchange include gold, silver, copper, salt, peppercorns, large stones, decorated belts, shells, alcohol, cigarettes, cannabis, candy, cocoa beans and barley. (Wikipedia) According to Herodotus, the Lydians were the first people to introduce the use of gold and silver coins. It is thought by modern scholars that these first stamped coins were minted around 650–600 BC. The system of commodity money eventually evolved into a system of representative money. Banknotes were first issued in Europe in 1661, but Marco Polo reported much earlier use in asia. The gold standard, a monetary system where the medium of exchange are paper notes that are convertible into fixed quantities of gold, replaced the use of gold coins as currency in the 17th-19th centuries in Europe. These gold standard notes were made legal tender, and redemption into gold coins was discouraged. By the beginning of the 20th century almost all countries had adopted the gold standard. After World War II, at the Bretton Woods Conference, most countries adopted fiat currencies that were fixed to the US dollar. The US dollar was in turn fixed to gold. In 1971 the US government suspended the convertibility of the US dollar to gold. After this many countries de-pegged their currencies from the US dollar, and most of the world's currencies became unbacked by anything except the governments' fiat of legal tender and the ability to convert the money into goods via payment. (Wikipedia) In Money and the Mechanism of Exchange (1875), William Stanley Jevons famously analyzed money in terms of four functions: a medium of exchange, a common measure of value (or unit of account), a standard of value (or standard of deferred payment), and a store of value. By 1919, Jevons's four functions of money were summarized in the couplet: "Money's a matter of functions four, a Medium, a Measure, a Standard, a Store." (Wikipedia) Medium of exchange: To serve as a measure of value, a medium of exchange, be it a good or signal, needs to have constant inherent value of its own or it must be firmly linked to a definite basket of goods and services. It should have constant intrinsic value and stable purchasing power. Wikipedia lists 180 de facto currencies The Coinage Act of 1965, specifically Section 31 U.S.C. 5103, defines legal tender as "United States coins and currency (including Federal reserve notes and circulating notes of Federal reserve banks and national banks) are legal tender for all debts, public charges, taxes, and dues.“ “There is, however, no federal statute requiring a private business, a person or an organization to accept currency or coins as for payment for goods and/or services. Private businesses may adopt their own policies on whether or not to accept cash as long it doesn't violate state law. For example, a business may refuses to accept payment in pennies or large denomination bills as a matter of policy.” (USLegal.com)

“It is a bubble, there is no question about it.”
“The central problem with Bitcoin … is that it doesn’t really solve any sensible economic problem.” Robert J. Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale A bubble is a special kind of fad, a mania for holding an asset in expectation of its appreciation. amplified by news of price increases justified by inspiring “new-era” stories attends a session at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEFT) in Davos January 24, 2014.

Exhaustion of the pool of Bitcoins will lead to transaction fees
Total Coins In Millions 2033: 21 Mil. 2014: 12 Mil. Source: Wikipedia

Satoshi Nakamoto Is The Alleged Inventor of BitCoin
“an online BitCoin forum account long believed to belong to the real Satoshi Nakamoto, posted a one-sentence denial that he was the man identified in California. It was the account’s first activity in more than three years.” NYT 6/3/14 Dorian SN is 64 “Mike Hearn, who became involved with BitCoin a few months after it was created, said that initially, BitCoin was too small and insignificant for the identity of its creator to be a concern. But as it grew, Mr. Hearn went back and looked at his s with Satoshi Nakamoto and found that they had been sent through an encryption service that obscured their origin.” NYT 6/13/14 The real Satoshi Nakamoto could prove his or her identity fairly easily by making changes to an original BitCoin account or by providing the security code that was attached to s shared with a small group of BitCoin’s earliest programmers. Proving someone is not Satoshi Nakamoto, however, is tougher. NYT 6/13/14 “Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto, the man identified by Newsweek magazine as the founder of Bitcoin, has hired a lawyer and issued a written statement early Monday denying any involvement with the digital currency. “I did not create, invent or otherwise work on Bitcoin,” Mr. Nakamoto said. “I unconditionally deny the Newsweek report.” ” “I did not create, invent or otherwise work on Bitcoin” -Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto

An Experiment by Wired Confirmed The Claims By Miners
Butterfly Labs Bitcoin Miner, $274 5.5 GH/s on average Eclipse Mining Consortium 2 BTC in 10 days. Source: Wired May 2013 report

“Our best definition would be that it is currently a speculative financial asset that can be used as a medium of exchange” Dominic Wilson, Chief markets economist at Goldman Sachs

BTC is a bubble High volatility
Market inefficiencies manifested as persistent forex arbitrage opportunities Source: “BitCoin Illusion,” Fabio Scacciavillani, Il FattoQuotidiano, 9 marzo 2014

Forex Arbitrage Opportunities
Exchange A: BTC = $1,000 Exchange B: BTC = $1,100 Purchase 10 BTCs in Exchange A for $10,000 Immediately sell 10 BTCs in Exchange B for $11,000

BitCoin is “Evil”

Trust “Any transaction issued with Bitcoin cannot be reversed, they can only be refunded by the person receiving the funds. That means you should take care to do business with people and organizations you know and trust, or who have an established reputation. ” – BitCoin Website

BitCoin Faces a Long List of Serious Challenges
Better articulation of CVP with users Fostering trust in the face of high technical complexity Credit and interest require legal framework (regulation) Weeding out illegal uses of currency Required 10-minutes delay in transaction confirmation Deflationary and recessionary effects of fixed monetary bases “Fatal flaw” of the verification schema

BitCoin is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof
“electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust allowing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party Transactions that are computationally impractical to reverse protect sellers, and routine escrow mechanisms protect buyers. peer-to-peer distributed timestamp server to generate computational proof of the chronological order of transactions. The system is secure as long as honest nodes collectively control more CPU power than any cooperating group of attacker nodes” “What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party. Transactions that are computationally impractical to reverse would protect sellers from fraud, and routine escrow mechanisms could easily be implemented to protect buyers. In this paper, we propose a solution to the double-spending problem using a peer-to-peer distributed timestamp server to generate computational proof of the chronological order of transactions. The system is secure as long as honest nodes collectively control more CPU power than any cooperating group of attacker nodes.”

A Chain of Transactions
[Source] 10 BTC to Paul15 I give 10 BTC to Bob34, signed: Paul15 I give 5 BTC to Mary82, signed: Bob34 I give 5 BTC to Ellen23, signed: Mary 82 …..

The Original Paper Mediation increase transaction costs
Small transactions impractical Mediated transactions are reversible Increases fraud Reversibility requires trust “The cost of mediation increases transaction costs, limiting the minimum practical transaction size and cutting off the possibility for small casual transactions, and there is a broader cost in the loss of ability to make non-reversible payments for nonreversible services. With the possibility of reversal, the need for trust spreads. Merchants must be wary of their customers, hassling them for more information than they would otherwise need. A certain percentage of fraud is accepted as unavoidable. These costs and payment uncertainties can be avoided in person by using physical currency, but no mechanism exists to make payments over a communications channel without a trusted party.”

An electronic coin is a chain of digital signatures
Source: Satoshi Nakamoto 08

The Double Spending Problem
“The problem of course is the payee can't verify that one of the owners did not double-spend the coin. A common solution is to introduce a trusted central authority, or mint, that checks every transaction for double spending. After each transaction, the coin must be returned to the mint to issue a new coin, and only coins issued directly from the mint are trusted not to be double-spent.” “The only way to confirm the absence of a transaction is to be aware of all transactions. In the mint based model, the mint was aware of all transactions and decided which arrived first. To accomplish this without a trusted party, transactions must be publicly announced [1], and we need a system for participants to agree on a single history of the order in which they were received. The payee needs proof that at the time of each transaction, the majority of nodes agreed it was the first received.” Source: Satoshi Nakamoto 08

Distributed Timestamp Server
Source: Satoshi Nakamoto 08

Proof of work “The proof-of-work involves scanning for a value that when hashed, such as with SHA-256, the hash begins with a number of zero bits. The average work required is exponential in the number of zero bits required and can be verified by executing a single hash” Source – BitCoin web site“The "nonce" in a BitCoin block is a 32-bit (4-byte) field whose value is set so that the hash of the block will contain a run of zeros. The rest of the fields may not be changed, as they have a defined meaning. Any change to the block data (such as the nonce) will make the block hash completely different. Since it is believed infeasible to predict which combination of bits will result in the right hash, many different nonce values are tried, and the hash is recomputed for each value until a hash containing the required number of zero bits is found. As this iterative calculation requires time and resources, the presentation of the block with the correct nonce value constitutes proof of work. “ “The proof-of-work also solves the problem of determining representation in majority decision making. If the majority were based on one-IP-address-one-vote, it could be subverted by anyone able to allocate many IPs. Proof-of-work is essentially one-CPU-one-vote. The majority decision is represented by the longest chain, which has the greatest proof-of-work effort invested in it. If a majority of CPU power is controlled by honest nodes, the honest chain will grow the fastest and outpace any competing chains.” Source: Satoshi Nakamoto 08

Network 1) New transactions are broadcast to all nodes.
2) Each node collects new transactions into a block. 3) Each node works on finding a difficult proof-of-work for its block. 4) When a node finds a proof-of-work, it broadcasts the block to all nodes. 5) Nodes accept the block only if all transactions in it are valid and not already spent. 6) Nodes express their acceptance of the block by working on creating the next block in the chain, using the hash of the accepted block as the previous hash.

Simplified Verification
“A user only needs to keep a copy of the block headers of the longest proof-of-work chain, which he can get by querying network nodes until he's convinced he has the longest chain, and obtain the Merkle branch linking the transaction to the block it's timestamped in. He can't check the transaction for himself, but by linking it to a place in the chain, he can see that a network node has accepted it, and blocks added after it further confirm the network has accepted it.” Source: Satoshi Nakamoto 08

Silk Road Dread Pirate Roberts in jail
Utopia closed after nine days in D and NL Charlie Shrem (24) founder of Bitinstant.com arrested for recycling BTCs Source: “BitCoin Illusion,” Fabio Scacciavillani, Il FattoQuotidiano, 9 marzo 2014

Incentive “the first transaction in a block is a special transaction that starts a new coin owned by the creator of the block” “analogous to gold miners” Transaction fees also possible “The incentive may help encourage nodes to stay honest. If a greedy attacker is able to assemble more CPU power than all the honest nodes, he would have to choose between using it to defraud people by stealing back his payments, or using it to generate new coins. He ought to find it more profitable to play by the rules, such rules that favour him with more new coins than everyone else combined, than to undermine the system and the validity of his own wealth.”

Mining Profitability Over time is Declining
Mining profitability over time, via CoinLab

US Government Stance US Treasury secretary Jack Lew said that he has decided [on ] a wait-and-see strategy. “From the government’s perspective, we have to make sure it does not become an avenue to funding illegal activity or to funding activities that have malign purposes like terrorist activities. You know, it is an anonymous form of transaction, and it offers places for people to hide.” jan

The days of anonymous transactions in Bitcoin and operating an exchange with no outside interference are over. In March 2013, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, a part of the Treasury Department known as FinCen, issued guidance stating that anyone operating an exchange for virtual currencies would be considered to be running a money transmitting business. That designation means exchanges must collect information about customers, as required under Bank Secrecy Act regulations, which are intended to prevent transactions through anonymous accounts. FinCen went a step further in its guidance by including any person who puts into circulation a virtual currency, which means that the so-called Bitcoin miners are also subject to the regulations. (FinCen last week issued a letter clarifying that users mining Bitcoins for their own purposes would not be considered money transmitters under the Bank Secrecy Act). individuals and merchants who use Bitcoin like cash do not need to comply with the regulations imposed on those operating exchanges.

The Economist Report ASIC-based hardware
the kit paid for itself within three days Between July and mid-November 2013 the computational capacity of the Bitcoin network increased 25-fold, from 200 trillion to 5 quadrillion hashes per second. Newer generation of more efficient ASICs in November Hashing capacity has increased so rapidly in 2013 that the practice of hijacking thousands of PCs and using them for mining is no longer worth the effort But as part of Bitcoin’s design, the reward for mining a block halves every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years. Sometime in 2017, at the current rate, it will drop to 12.5 Bitcoins. If the returns from mining decline, who will verify the integrity of the block chain?

As the rate of transactions increases, squeezing all financial activity into the preset size limit for each block has started to become problematic. The protocol may need to be tweaked to allow more transactions per block, among other changes. A further problem relates to the volunteer machines, or nodes, that allow Bitcoin to function. These nodes relay transactions and transmit updates to the block chain. But, says Matthew Green, a security researcher at Johns Hopkins University, the ecosystem provides no compensation for maintaining these nodes—only for mining. The rising cost of operating nodes could jeopardize Bitcoin’s ability to scale

Bitcoin’s growing popularity is having other ripple effects
Bitcoin’s growing popularity is having other ripple effects. Every participant in the system must keep a copy of the block chain, which now exceeds 11 gigabytes in size and continues to grow steadily. This alone deters casual use. Bitcoin’s designer proposed a method of pruning the chain to include only unspent amounts, but it has not been implemented. As the rate of transactions increases, squeezing all financial activity into the preset size limit for each block has started to become problematic. The protocol may need to be tweaked to allow more transactions per block, among other changes.

The original paper that sparked the creation of Bitcoin has since been supplemented by layers of agreed-upon protocol, updated regularly by the system’s participants. The protocol, like the currency, is a fiction they accept as real, because rejection by a large proportion of users—be they banks, exchanges, speculators or miners—could cause the whole system to collapse. Mr. Hearn notes that he and other programmers who work on Bitcoin’s software have no special authority in the system. Instead, proposals are floated, implemented in software, and must then be taken up by 80% of nodes before becoming permanent—at which point blocks from other nodes are rejected. “The rules of the system are not set in stone,” he says. The adoption of improvements is up to the community. Bitcoin is thus both flexible and fragile.

Explaining BTC’s Limited Success
Psychological and Sociological reasons Alignment with libertarianism and anarchism No trust required Qualified anonymity Speculative greed Technological novelty Geek factor

Explaining BTC’s Limited Success
Economics & Business reasons Low transaction costs Ecosystem Network effects Fraud resistance (maybe) Irreversibility (maybe)

BitCoin & the Disruptive Potential of Cryptocurrency

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