1. The Global Calculator The Global Calculator The Global Calculator www.globalcalculator.org

2. The Global Calculator How to use this pack This slide pack is designed so that you can select slides to build your own presentation that will suit your interests, your audience and the time you have available. The Global Calculator team recommend demonstrating the tool live as part of your presentation, so that you can show how it works, show the key messages from our report, and get the audience debating different options. You can download example speaking notes from www.globalcalculator.org to help you do this. www.globalcalculator.org However, we have included slides that summarise how the tool works and the key messages in case you are unable to demonstrate the tool live.

3. The Global Calculator Contents This slide pack is split into different sections to help you build your presentation. The sections are: Context (slide 4) Introducing the Global Calculator (slide 8) Demonstrating the Global Calculator tool (if you do not have access to the online version) (slide 14) Key messages from the report “Prosperous living for the world in 2050” (if you do not have access to the online version) (slide 25) Project background (slide 44) How the model works (slide 52) Follow-up activities (slide 68)

4. The Global Calculator Context

5. The Global Calculator What will the future look like? By 2050: the global population could rise from 7 billion to 10 billion the global economy is expected to triple in size energy demand could increase by around 70% food demand could rise by around 45% This will significantly increase greenhouse gas emissions if we do not take action.

6. The Global Calculator What will our climate be like? If global emissions continue to rise rapidly this century: the global mean temperature could increase by 6°C in the long term. sea levels could rise, changing coastlines worldwide precipitation patterns are likely to change so that dry parts of the world will get drier and the rainy parts will get wetter fragile ecosystems will be put at risk some extreme weather events will be more common oceans will become more acidic, damaging marine life These changes will put human lives and livelihoods at risk. The cost of adapting and responding to climate change could be huge.

7. The Global Calculator What can we do? The world’s governments have agreed that we should limit climate change so that the world average temperature increase is kept below 2°C Is this possible? What actions do we need to take? To find out, a group of experts from around the world built the Global Calculator.

8. The Global Calculator Introducing the Global Calculator

9. The Global Calculator The Global Calculator A free and interactive tool that helps you to understand the link between our lifestyles, the energy we use, and the consequences for our climate. Available at www.globalcalculator.org

10. The Global Calculator What is it? The Global Calculator puts you in charge of the world’s energy, land and food systems to 2050 It includes the full range of possible scenarios for the future, as determined by international experts It instantly works out the implications of your choices so you can see the impact on people’s lifestyles, the energy system and the climate

11. The Global Calculator Three principles behind the tool 1.Openness – an Excel-based tool which is fully published and available free online 2.Collaboration – built by a global team with input from hundreds of experts 3.Simplicity – modelling the world as simply as possible, while still including all energy, emissions and a full range of future scenarios

12. The Global Calculator Developing “pathways” Build your own pathway to 2050 that reaches the 2°C target by making choices using 40 “levers” that vary the way we live in the future. Alternatively, explore pathways from businesses, NGOs and research institutes, including:

13. The Global Calculator Who can use the Global Calculator? Businesses – for long-term planning (e.g. the future of their sector and which technologies to invest in) and to see the impact they can have on emissions (e.g. improving efficiency) NGOs – informing long-term strategies and campaigns (e.g. lobbying for technologies/changes that have the most impact) Governments – understanding what the 2°C target means, and using benchmarks from the tool to align themselves with it Universities/schools – students can discover the impact of mitigation options themselves.

14. The Global Calculator Demonstrating the Global Calculator tool

15. The Global Calculator How does it work? Interactive web interface

16. The Global Calculator How does it work? 40 “levers” to let you vary the way we live in the future

17. The Global Calculator How does it work? 40 “levers” to let you vary the way we live in the future Graphs let you explore the impacts of your choices

18. The Global Calculator How does it work? 40 “levers” to let you vary the way we live in the future Graphs let you explore the impacts of your choices Graph shows cumulative emissions and thermometer shows temperature change

19. The Global Calculator How does it work? 40 “levers” to let you vary the way we live in the future Graphs let you explore the impacts of your choices Graph shows cumulative emissions and thermometer shows temperature change You can build your own pathway using the levers or select from a list of examples here

20. The Global Calculator The 2°C goal The grey cumulative emissions graph shows the total emissions out to 2100 based on your choices The red line shows what cumulative emissions need to be for a 50% chance of limiting climate change to 2°C and below. This can act as an indicative goal when building a pathway – how would you reduce emissions until the grey column hits the red line?

21. The Global Calculator The “levers” Each lever relates to a type of action to reduce emissions, e.g. building nuclear power stations or using more public transport Each lever has four options – levels 1 to level 4 – which the user selects. This represents the full range of what is possible for this action up to 2050: Level 1: minimum abatement effort Level 2: ambitious but achievable Level 3: very ambitious but achievable Level 4: extraordinarily ambitious and extreme Increasing abatement effort

22. The Global Calculator Example: nuclear power Level 1: 0 GW by 2050 Level 2: 685 GW by 2050 Level 3: 1030 GW by 2050 Level 4: 1870 GW by 2050 Increasing abatement effort

23. The Global Calculator Example: travel mode (switch to public transport) Level 4: 29% of journeys by car Level 3: 43% of journeys by car Level 2: 53% of journeys by car Level 1: 65% of journeys by car Increasing abatement effort

24. The Global Calculator Outputs The Global Calculator lets you explore the impact of your choices in detail: Overview – summary of energy and emissions Lifestyle – our homes, travel and diet Technology and fuels – how we power the world, and how much fossil fuel resources we have left Land and food – how much land is used for forests and food production Climate – maps showing temperature and precipitation change, and ocean acidification Costs – the cost of the total energy system

25. The Global Calculator Key messages

26. The Global Calculator A positive vision of the future This report uses evidence from the Global Calculator to show that: 1.The world could eat well, travel more and live in more comfortable homes and prevent dangerous climate change 2.But to do so, we need to transform the technologies and fuels we use 3.We also need to make smarter use of our limited land resources and expand forests by around 5-15% by 2050

27. The Global Calculator A positive vision of the future Where did these findings come from?

28. The Global Calculator 1. Take a business as usual pathway The International Energy Agency’s 6DS is a version of “business as usual” (BAU) for the world. It shows that by 2100, temperatures could rise between 2 and 6°C.

29. The Global Calculator 1. Take a business as usual pathway This is because energy demand is expected to increase significantly in the future, particularly from manufacturing. 80% of this demand will be met by burning fossil fuels.

30. The Global Calculator 1. Take a business as usual pathway For example, electricity supply comes mostly from coal (red), oil (blue) and gas (green):

31. The Global Calculator 2. Keep BAU improvements in people’s lifestyles BAU predictions include significant improvements in world average lifestyles, concentrated in the developing world.

32. The Global Calculator 2. Keep BAU improvements in people’s lifestyles For example, people will live in bigger homes and own more appliances.

33. The Global Calculator 2. Keep BAU improvements in people’s lifestyles They will travel more, and more of this travel will be by car.

34. The Global Calculator 2. Keep BAU improvements in people’s lifestyles People will eat more food on average per day, including more meat (UN FAO projection).

35. The Global Calculator 3. Change the technologies and fuels we use To keep BAU improvements in world average lifestyle and still meet the 2°C target, we must use more efficient technologies and low-carbon sources of energy. This require a massive and urgent effort across all sectors – electricity, buildings, transport and manufacturing.

36. The Global Calculator 3. Change the technologies and fuels we use The electricity sector must phase out unabated coal oil and gas by 2050. For example:

37. The Global Calculator 3. Change the technologies and fuels we use Vehicles will need to become much more efficient. And up to 35% of cars will need to be electric- or hydrogen-powered by 2050.

38. The Global Calculator 3. Change the technologies and fuels we use 25 to 50% of homes will need to heat their homes using electric or zero- carbon sources by 2050. Buildings will also need to become much more efficient, with significantly more insulation.

39. The Global Calculator 4. Make smarter use of our land We must protect and expand our forests globally by around 5 to 15% by 2050 because forests act as a valuable carbon sink. However, the world’s population is growing so will need more food in the future, and we may use bioenergy crops as well. This will put pressure on our limited land resources.

40. The Global Calculator 4. Make smarter use of our land To remove this pressure and allow forests to grow, crop yields would need to increase by 40 to 60% by 2050. Livestock yields will also need to increase, for example by feeding more cows with grain in enclosed systems.

41. The Global Calculator 4. Make smarter use of our land Eating less meat on average would also reduce pressure on forests. For example, if everyone switched to the healthy diet as recommended by the World Health Organisation, with only 160 g of meat per day, this could save up to 15 GtCO 2 e per year by 2050. That’s the same as 1/3 of total global CO 2 emissions in 2011.

42. The Global Calculator How did we get our results? The report is based on four pathways built using the Global Calculator. These are the common features of these pathways: Lifestyle levers are set at the same level as the IEA 6DS business as usual scenario (with the exception of the “consumer activism” pathway, in which the levers “mode”, “occupancy & load”, “car own or hire”, “quantity of meat”, “type of meat” and “product lifespan & demand” are altered). All four pathways can be considered consistent with projected patterns of economic development. Population and urbanisation are set at the central UN projections (level 2). Emissions after 2050 are set at around level 2.8 to allow continued reductions toward zero. No level 1 or 4s selected in order to avoid extremely ambitious or pessimistic scenarios. No use of speculative greenhouse gas removal (GGR) technologies as these are unproven.

43. The Global Calculator What is a “good lifestyle” We have defined a “good lifestyle” as: World average lifestyle indicators around transport (e.g. how far people travel) and homes (e.g. how comfortably heated/cooled they are and how many appliances they have) continue to improve along a business as usual pathway. For diet, the world average food intake continues to increase as projected by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN, which by 2050 would exceed the levels recommended by the WHO for a healthy, active lifestyle (2,330 kcal/person/day, including 220 kcal from meat). In general, lifestyle indicators move towards the current levels seen in developed countries such as Europe. Note that as the Global Calculator looks at world averages only.

44. The Global Calculator Project background

45. The Global Calculator Origins The Global Calculator is a spin-off of the UK’s 2050 Calculator, launched by the Department of Energy and Climate Change in 2010. Available at: http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk

46. The Global Calculator The 2050 Calculator family Since then, around 20 countries, regions and territories have also built 2050 Calculators to help inform policy and increase public understanding of energy issues, including: Belgium China South Korea South Africa Brazil Bangladesh India Indonesia Hungary Japan Mexico Thailand Vietnam Colombia Nigeria New Zealand Australia Austria

47. The Global Calculator My2050 Some 2050 Calculators have “My2050” game versions, which can be used by the general public to help understand and debate the future of energy and the climate. South Africa Taiwan

48. The Global Calculator Principles of the 2050 Calculator Relatively simple, engineering-based models designed for scenario testing Contain all energy and all emissions Completely open source - the underlying Excel model and documentation are published User friendly web-based interface means that non- experts can use them Shows the full range of potential ambition across sectors using a level 1 to 4 approach Involves external experts in the build of the tool and a public consultation For more information, see www.2050.org.uk

49. The Global Calculator The Global Calculator team The project is funded by the UK Government’s International Climate Fund and Climate-KIC. The model was developed by the following organisations:

50. The Global Calculator Team structure Sophie Hartfield Team leader Tom Bain Lead modeller Erica Thompson Climate science and impacts Julien Pestiaux, Benoit Lefevre & Erin Cooper Transport Jeremy Woods, Alexandre Strapasson & Nicole Kalas Land/bio/ food Anindya Bhattacharya Electricity and fossil fuels Markus Wrobel Visuals Zhang Bo Buildings Davide D’Ambrosio IEA support on data, peer review and stakeholder engagement Michel Cornet Materials Support from Climate-KIC partners: Utrecht University, Netherlands; Potsdam Institute, Germany; Walker Institute, UK; Rothamsted Research, UK; University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en- Yvelines, France; Met Office, UK; and Tyndall Centre, UK. Laura Aylett Engagement

51. The Global Calculator Open consultation Hundreds of experts were consulted Workshops and meetings were held during the development phase in Washington DC, London, New Delhi, Beijing and Brussels A draft version was published in July 2014 with an open call for feedback The full version was launched on 28 th January 2015 with events in London and Beijing

52. The Global Calculator How the model works

53. The Global Calculator An Excel-based model The basis of the Calculator model is an Excel spreadsheet, which has a more user-friendly, web-based interface. The full Excel model is available to download online.

54. The Global Calculator Principles behind the Global Calculator model The abiding principle when building the Calculator is that the model should be: “As simple as possible, but no simpler."

55. The Global Calculator A global, long-term view The Global Calculator allows you to decide how global lifestyles, technologies, land use and demographics will change from now to 2050. In order to make the tool easy to use and understand the Global Calculator does not divide the world into separate countries. Instead you change world averages and totals only (for example, average diet, average car efficiency and total solar power capacity). You then choose the overall emissions trend from 2050 to 2100.

56. The Global Calculator Principles behind the Global Calculator model The Global Calculator is an engineering-based scenario model, which means that: it models the world’s energy supply and demand by modelling physical units such cars and power plants the user chooses the characteristics, deployment and use of these different technologies it makes no economics-based assumptions about the way behaviour is affected by supply and demand it doesn't automatically optimise the energy system based on price or any other factor it makes no assumption about geographical distribution All scenarios are consistent with GDP growth projections.

57. The Global Calculator Modelling each sector The Global Calculator separates the world into the following sectors: Transport Buildings Manufacturing Electricity Fossil fuels Land, bioenergy and food All sectors work independently as much as possible, with no feedback loops. Climate impacts and cost implications of the choices in these sectors are shown.

58. The Global Calculator The transport sector Covers all relevant transportation modes, including walking, cycling and international aviation Covers all technical options like electric and hydrogen vehicles, as well as increases in efficiency Rural areas and three different city types are modelled separately because they will have different opportunities to build public transport systems in the future Personal and freight transport demand can be varied.

59. The Global Calculator Buildings The calculator allows the user to choose: the warmth of our buildings in cold months and the heat in cool months the ownership of appliances and lighting the size of our buildings the "envelope" of our buildings (i.e. how well insulated they are) the technology we use for temperature control, cooking and lighting the efficiency of our appliances.

60. The Global Calculator Manufacturing The model splits manufacturing into: –Iron, steel and aluminium –Chemicals –Cement –Paper and other Users can explore the impact of changing product lifespans, recycling and smarter design in reducing product demand Process optimization, fuel switches, energy efficiency and carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be used to reduce the emissions associated with manufacturing

61. The Global Calculator Electricity Electricity demand is set based on the user’s choices in other sectors The model ensures there is never insufficient electricity supply to meet demand If the user does not supply enough electricity from renewables, nuclear and CCS, the Calculator automatically gets it from unabated power stations (either fuelled by fossil fuels or bioenergy depending on the user’s choices) Electricity storage and demand shifting are included

62. The Global Calculator Fossil fuels and bioenergy Demand for solid, liquid and gas hydrocarbons is set in the other sectors The model first meets this demand with solid, liquid and gas bioenergy, the supply of which is set in the land, food and bioenergy sector If there is not enough bioenergy, the Calculator extracts, refines and burns fossil fuels The model can show you the fossil fuel reserves left in the ground, based on current estimates.

63. The Global Calculator Land and food and bioenergy The model first allocates land needed to grow the world’s food based on the user’s choices around population, diet and land-use practices. If there is not enough existing farmland to feed the world, then the model will cut down forests to meet demand. If we need less farmland in the future because food demand has decreased or crop and livestock yields have increased, then the user can use this “surplus land” to regrow forests and/or grow bioenergy crops. The user also chooses whether to reduce the amount of food that people waste, and whether to use food and farm waste as bioenergy and animal feed.

64. The Global Calculator Bioenergy If the user is growing bioenergy crops, they can choose whether to produce solid or liquid biofuels. The model then uses this bioenergy as a replacement for fossil fuels (e.g. liquid in car engines or solid in power stations). Bioenergy is in principle carbon neutral, as it captures CO 2 when the plants grow which is then released when it is used. However, the model allocates several indirect emissions to produce bioenergy, such as those attributed from agriculture (e.g. fertilisers, farm machines) and land use change (e.g. changes in soil carbon). The model can allow you to use bioenergy in CCS, which produces “negative emissions”, as the CO 2 captured by the plants is stored underground.

65. The Global Calculator “Speculative” technologies The Global Calculator allows you to use some technologies that are not available or are not used at a large scale at the moment: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is included for both power generation (using gas, coal and possibly bioenergy) and manufacturing (e.g. steel and cement production). Greenhouse gas removal (GGR) technologies (that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere) are included in the “technology and fuels” tab. Nuclear fusion is not modelled as a separate technology because many experts do not believe that it could be significantly deployed by 2050. If you believe that nuclear fusion will be deployed, you could roughly simulate this by choosing a high nuclear scenario or by amending the data in the underlying spreadsheet.

66. The Global Calculator Climate science The tool converts the total emissions released by 2100 into a range of plausible global average temperature change, using the latest evidence from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). State-of-the-art climate models are used to visualise the possible regional impacts consistent with this range of temperature change, shown on maps in the climate tab. In the “basic physics” section you can also see results based on much simpler physical relationships. This shows how scientists' confidence in the global warming effect is derived not just from the results of complex climate models.

67. The Global Calculator Costs The tool estimates the cost of the global energy system out to 2050, based on the user’s choices. This includes capital, operating and fuel costs, so it covers things like the cost of power stations, wind turbines, boilers, cars, trains, roads, fossil fuels and clean technology used in manufacturing. In the costs tab you can compare the cost in your pathway to many example pathways. Costs are uncertain looking this far into the future, so the model shows a range of possible cost totals. Since the Calculator does not have regional detail, we use US costs, taken mostly from the TIAM-UCL model.

68. The Global Calculator Follow-up activities

69. The Global Calculator Testing out ideas (quick activity) Start with the IEA’s 2DS pathway (a future where we keep climate change below 2°C) Ask audience: “What action or technology do you think could have a big impact on emissions?” Test out each suggestion using the Global Calculator by clicking on level 1 and then on 4. Does it have a big impact on emissions and temperature? Are any findings surprising? Try and identify the levers that have the biggest impact and discuss why this might be. Remember: there is no one action that will make the world reach the 2°C target – action needs to be taken in all sectors.

70. The Global Calculator Exploring the role of lifestyle (at least 20 minutes) The lifestyle section of the tool covers people’s average travel, homes and diet. Ask the audience for suggestions of how we can reduce the emissions associated with our lifestyles. Test out the suggestions using the tool. What changes have the biggest impact? Which actions do you think would be easier for people to take? Which actions would be harder to implement? What infrastructure, policies or education programmes would you implement to build a low-carbon future?

71. The Global Calculator Start building a pathway 2°C together (at least 30 minutes) This activity works if you have access to only one screen, and can be used with a large group. The aim is to start with the IEA’s 6DS pathway and build a pathway that hits the 2°C line on the cumulative emissions graph. The speaker should explain each lever and what the choices are. The audience can then vote for levels 1, 2, 3 or 4. A suggested order for the levers is: –Nuclear, renewables and CCS –Travel, homes and diet –Transport, buildings and manufacturing –Food and land use –Demographics

72. The Global Calculator Build a pathway 2°C pathway (at least 1 hour/homework assignment) If your audience have access to individual computers, split them into small groups. Ask them to start with the IEA’s 6DS business as usual pathway and see if they can design a 2°C pathway. Call the groups back together and ask each group to explain their choices and whether they learnt anything surprising. This can also work as a homework assignment – ask students to write a report on the choices they made and why they would recommend this pathway for the world. They can include a link to their pathway (click the “share” button to generate a unique URL).