1. Transit Market Research Using Attitudinal Market Segmentation, Structural Equation Modeling and Mode Choice Modeling
Yoram Shiftan, The Technion
Maren Outwater, Cambridge Systematics
YuShuang Zhou, Cambridge Systematics
5th Israeli-British/Irish Workshop in Regional Science
Ramat Gan, April 2007 2 3 1 3

2. Building a Competitive Strategy
What kinds of strategies can best seize these opportunities?
Strategies
Which segments in which travel markets should transit services compete for?
Competitive Positioning
What will be the likely funding and cooperation?
Resources
What are the market segments and where are they located?
Market Segments
What are the key attitudes and preferences that drive traveler choices?
Travel Behavior

3. From Market Research to Service Planning
Locate Market Segments
Competitive Positioning
Customer Experience
System Performance
Network Structure
Understand Travel Markets
Service Planning
Transit
Priority
Personal
Safety
Seating
Comfort
Segment Market

4. Market Research Analysis Flow Chart
Attitude-Based
Survey
Stated-Preference
Survey (WTA)
Exploratory
Factor Analysis
Confirmatory
Factor Analysis
Structural Equation
Modeling
Market Segmentation
Mode Choice
(WTA)
Market Segmentation
Application

5. Attitude-Based Survey Results (UTA)10 9 8
UTA Statements
WTA - 30 Statements 7
Score 6 5 4 3
Attitudinal Statements
1. Driving is the fastest way
9.0
1. Avoid traveling at stressful time
5.1
2. Public transportation help the environment
8.5
2. Need to make trips to various locations
5.1
3. Clean vehicle is important
8.4
3. Don't mind transfers
4.9
4. Like to keep to my schedule when travel
8.0
4. Avoid some areas that are unsafe
4.8
5. Prefer travel options with predicted time
7.8
5. Prefer driving to be alone
4.7
TOP TEN
BOTTOM TEN
6. It is imptant to have comfortable seats
7.7
6. Travel mostly during peak time
4.4
7. Like to know the cause of delay
7.6
7. Worry about getting into an accident
4.1
8, Driving should pay more to help Envirenment
8. Feel safe near home or destianton
7.5
4.1
9. Important to change travel plans at a moment
7.5
9. Use Public transportation if it was cheaper
4.0
10. Feel savfe using PT
7.3
10. I am usually anxious when travel
3.1

6. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (UTA)
Desire to Help the Environment
Desire for Productivity and Reliability
Sensitivity to Time
Sensitivity to Safety and Privacy
Need for Fixed Schedule
Sensitivity to Stress and Comfort
Willingness to Use Transit

7. Desire to Help the Environment
I would be willing to pay more when I travel if it would help improve air quality
People who drive alone should pay more to help improve air quality (.89)
I would switch to a different form of transportation if it would reduce air pollution (.86)
Use of public transportation can help improve air quality (.28)

8. Desire for Productivity and Reliability
I would like to make productive use of my time when I travel
I would much rather do something else with the time that I spend traveling (.82%)
I prefer a travel option that has predictable travel time from day to day (.73%)
If my travel option is delayed, I want to know the cause and length of the delay (.68%)
When traveling, I like to keep as close as possible to my departure and arrival schedules (.68%)

9. Sensitivity to Time I am usually in a hurry when I make a trip
I would change my form of travel if it would save me some time (.93%)
I use the fastest form of transportation regardless of cost (.85)
Driving is usually the fastest way to get where I need to go (.52)

10. Sensitivity to Safety and Privacy
I do mind traveling with strangers
I do not feel safe using public transportation (.85)
Having my privacy is important to me when I travel (.61)
I prefer driving because I like to be alone while I travel (.56)
I do not feel safe walking both near my home and near my destination (.55)
I avoid traveling through certain areas because they are unsafe (.51)
When traveling, I do not like to talk and visit with other people (.26)
I worry about getting in an accident when I travel (.21)

11. Need for Fixed Schedule
I need to travel mostly during rush hour times
I need to make trips according to a fixed schedule (89%)

12. Sensitivity to Stress and Comfort
Having a stress-free trip is more important than reaching my destination quickly
I avoid traveling at certain times because it is too stressful (73%)
I don’t mind delays as long as I am comfortable (64%)
It is important to have comfortable seats when I travel (26%)
A clean vehicle is important to me (18%)

13. Willingness to Use Transit
I wouldn’t mind walking a few minutes to get to and from a bus or a TRAX stop
I would ride transit if services were available to my destination when I need to travel (88%)
If I rode public transportation I wouldn’t mind changing between buses or between bus and TRAX (78%)
I know how to reach my destination using public transportation (64%)
I would use public transportation more often if it was cheaper to ride (36%)

14. Attitude Factors (the WTA case)
Need for Flexibility
Sensitivity to Personal Travel Experience
Desire to Help the Environment
Need for Time Savings
Insensitivity to Transport Costs
Sensitivity to Stress

15. Structural Equation Modeling (UTA)
Attitudinal Statements (Endogenous)
Attitudinal Factors (Latent)
Socioeconomic Status (Exogenous)
Environment.
Productivity &
Reliabiity
Sensitivity to
Time
Privacy &
Safety
Fixed
Schedule
Stress
& Comfort
Willingness to
Use transit V1
EV1
EQ1 Q1 Q2 V2
EV2
EQ2
EQ3 Q3 V3
EV3
EQ37
Q37
V27
EV37
EQ38
Q38
V28
EV38
Travel Behaviors

16. Goals of Market Segmentation
to produce distinct groups (i.e., segments) with maximized difference between groups and minimized difference within each group
Between Segments
The differences among segments are maximized
Within Each Segments
The differences within each segment are minimized

17. Market Segmentation (UTA)
Sensitivity to Time
Low Sensitivity of Time
High Sensitivity of Time
All Travelers
Flexible
Schedule
Fixed
Need for Fixed Schedule
No Transit
Transit
Willingness to Use Transit
Anxious
Amblers
None of These Factors
Transit
Green
Riders
Fixed
Schedule
Productive
9 to 5-ers
Fixed Schedule
and
Transit
Routine Riders
Time
Cautious
Flyers
Time
and Transit
Green Flyers
Time
and Fixed
Schedule
Cautious
9 to 5-ers
Time, Fixed
Schedule and
Transit
Routine
Flyers
Market
Segments
Attitudinal Focus

18. Cautious Flyers Low desire to improve air quality
Lowest willingness to use transit
High desire for productivity, high sensitivity to safety and privacy, and low sensitivity to stress and comfort.
Flexible schedule, yet high sensitivity to time.
The majority of this segment is young married female with kids, most of them are in one-worker and two-vehicle household.
More than 75% of this segment are homemakers and students.
Only 35% of the population in this segment need to travel more than 0.5 mile to work, nobody uses transit as the primary mode for either work or other trips.

19. Green Riders High desire to improve air quality
Segment with highest willingness to use transit
Low desire for productivity and reliability, low sensitivity to time, and very flexible schedule.
Least sensitive segment to safety and privacy, but highly sensitive to stress and comfort.
High share of retired population (50%) and of students (5%)
All households own vehicles, most of them own one.
25% of this segment needs to travel more than 0.5 mile to work/school, 6% use transit as the primary mode for work/school trips, and 15% use transit for non-work trips

20. Number of Workers in the Household
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10% 0%
Anxious Amblers
Green Riders
Productive
9 to 5-ers
Routine Riders
Cautious
Flyers
Green Flyers
Cautious
9 to 5-ers
Routine Flyers 1 2
>=3

21. People Who Travel More Than ½ Mile For Work and School Trips
Percent
91%
90% 90
87%
85% 75 60
44% 45
35% 30
26% 15
13%
11% 9% 7% 6% 6% 0%
0.0% 1%
Anxious
Amblers
Green
Riders
Productive
9 to 5-ers
Routine
Riders
Cautious
Flyers
Green
Flyers
Cautious
9 to 5-ers
Routine
Flyers
Share using public transit for work/school trips

22. Market Segmentation Competitive Positioning
Tougher Markets
Toughest Markets
High
Desire for Safety and Privacy and Comfort
Relatively Low-Hanging Fruit
Tough but Possible
Low
Low
High
Value of Time

23. Market Segments 30 25 20 15 10 5 Routine Flyers 33% Anxious Amblers5 10 15 20 25 30
Anxious
Amblers
21%
Cautious
9 to 5-ers
20%
Percent
Routine
Riders 9%
Green
Riders 7%
Productive
9 to 5-ers 4%
Cautious
Flyers 4%
Green
Flyers 2%

24. Geogarphic Details of Market Segments
One of two PUMA in Salt Lake County
Geogarphic Details of Market Segments
Block Groups
Census Tracts

25. Market Segmentation (WTA)
All Trans-Bay
Trippers
Factor One
Modest Environmental
Strong Environmental
Factor Two
Less Time
Savings
More Time
Factor Four
Less
Stressed
More
Less Stressed
Joe
Six-Pack
None of These Factors
Market
Segment
Focus
Anxious Ambler
Stress
Calm
Charger
Time
Frazzled
Flyer
Time and
Stress
Environment
Green
Cruiser
Reserved
Recycler
Environment
and Stress
Relaxed
Runabout
Environment
and Time
Tense
Trekker
Environment,
Time, and
Stress

26. WTA Mode Choice Model Constants Modes HBW HBO/Shop HBRec Carpool Auto
-0.21
-0.33
-1.44**
BART
Transit
1.86**
1.32*
2.17**
Other rail
0.59
0.64
1.51
Bus
0.96*
-0.11
1.27
Ferry
0.018
0.24
-0.65
Drive access
-1.68**
0.015
Transit access/egress
-068**
-0.29
-0.55*
LOS
Total cost
Rail/bus ** ** ** ** * ** ** **
In vehicle time
-0.037**
-0.025**
-0.046**
-0.023**
-0.016**
-0.039**
-0.024**
-0.017**
-0.029**
Walk time
-0.030**
-0.028**
Walk access/egress time
-0.060
-0.048**
-0.062**
Drive access time
-0.108**
-0.069**
-0.061**
Out of vehicle time
-0.043**
-0.039
-0.025
Total travel time
Time sensitive MS ** **

27. WTA Mode Choice Model - Continue
Socioeconomic
Modes
HBW
HBO/Shop
HBRec
Household income
Drive alone
4.4E-6*
-9.2E-7
-6.9E-6**
Rail/bus drive access
7.1E-6**
7.1E-6*
-1.7**
Ferry drive access
1.5E-5**
-2.1E-6
-1.2E-5**
Rail/bus transit access
-2.1E-7
-5.3E-7
-2.4E-5**
Ferry walk/tran access
7.4E-6
1.2E-5**
-1.5E-5**
Vehicle per household
0.136*
0.419**
0.070
Rail/bus walk/tran accss
-o.604**
-0.346*
0.018
Ferry walk/transit access
-0.496**
-0.128
-0.083
0.026
0.306**
0.100
-0.281**
0.416**
-0.263
Additional Constants
Market Segments
Auto modes
Stress-related MS
1.067**
0.574**
Ferry modes
0.125
0.757** --
Carpool transit ferry
Pro-environment MS
0.720**
Summary statistics
Final log likelihood
Rho-Square wrt zero
0.328
0.393
0.458
Rho-Square wrt cons.
0.119
0.093
0.111
Auto VOT
$17.07
$21.34
$18.47
Bus/Rail VOT
$3.65
$3.49
$3.70
Ferry VOT
$4.60
$8.14
$6.82

28. Conlusions
To increase transit market share we need to understand the market place according to the key attitudes potential customers most value.
Structural Equation Modeling is a powerful tool to improve our understanding of travel behavior and to improve transit services.
This approach can significantly increase out ability to answer important questions for better transit planning such as:
What attitudes and preferences drive each market segment’s choice for local travel options?
What strategies would be most effective for each market segment?
What are the “easy-to-reach” (and “hard to reach”) markets?
What strategies are most likely to be effective in different locations?

29. For Example
Market segments with a high value of time and a high need for safety and privacy (such as Cautious 9 to 5-ers in the UTA study) are more difficult to serve with fixed-route transit systems.
Market segments with a low value of time and low need to privacy (such as Green Riders in the UTA Study) are more likely served by models improvements to existing transit services.

30. Thank you for your attention!

31. Anxious Amblers Low desire to help the environment
Low willingness to use transit
Low desire for productivity and reliability
Low sensitivity to time and flexible schedule
High sensitivity to safety and privacy
Most sensitive segment to stress and comfort
High concentration of old retire female population
Low to middle income level (up to $100,000)
Only 7% of this segment needs to travel more than 0.5 mile to work, and nobody uses transit as the primary mode for work trips. Only 4% use transit for non-work trips.

32. Green Flyers
Highest desire to help the environment, and high willingness to use transit.
High sensitivity to time, but low desire for productivity and reliability, flexible schedule, low sensitivity to safety and privacy, and low sensitivity to stress and comfort.
Most of the people in this segment are young and middle aged, employed, and from a one worker household.
More than half of this segment have an income below $50,000.
Only 44% of this segment need to travel more than 0.5 mile to work/school, 11% of them use transit as primary mode for commute, and 22% uses transit for non-work trips.

33. Mode Share for Work/School Trips