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Second Training Course in Investment Management Santiago, Chile November 24 – 25, 2005.

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Presentation on theme: "Second Training Course in Investment Management Santiago, Chile November 24 – 25, 2005."— Presentation transcript:

1 Second Training Course in Investment Management Santiago, Chile November 24 – 25, 2005

2 Outline of Course Topics Topic One – Expected Returns & Measuring the Risk Premium - Two Important Concepts in Investment Management - Investor Role & Compensation, Expected Return Components - Measuring Expected Returns & Return Components - Definitions and Concepts - Historical Evidence - The Equity Risk Premium: U.S., Global, and Chilean Experience - Methods for Measuring Equity Risk Premiums: - Historical Estimates - Ibbotson Associates, Fidelity Investments/Global Financial Markets - Fundamental Estimates - Fundamental Approach to Risk Premium Estimation - Examples: Fama-French, Claus-Thomas, Arnott-Bernstein - Economic Estimates - Economic Approach to Risk Premium Estimation - Example: Black-Litterman, Ennis Knupp Associates - Survey Estimates - Examples: CFO surveys, Ennis-Knupp Associates managers, UTIMCO consultants Topic Two – Asset Allocation: Decisions & Strategies - The Asset Allocation Decision: Overview & Importance - Examples of Strategic Allocation Policies: - UTIMCO, Texas Teachers Retirement System, Global Capital Markets - Asset Allocation & Building Investment Portfolios - Sharpe’s Integrated Asset Allocation Model: Strategic, Tactical, Insured - Measuring Gains from Tactical Asset Allocation - Examples: Fidelity Investments, Teachers Retirement, UTIMCO

3 Outline of Course Topics (cont.) Topic Three – Portfolio Risk Analysis - Tracking Error: Concept & Examples – Mutual Funds & Chile AFPs - Risk & Expected Return Within a Portfolio - Multi-Asset Class Examples - Diversification & Portfolio Size - Advanced Risk Analytics - Total Portfolio Risk vs. Marginal Asset Risk Within a Portfolio - Marginal Contribution to Risk - Portfolio Risk-Tracking Example: Chile Pension Sistema - Measuring Portfolio Downside Risk - Semi-Variance vs. Lower-Partial Moments: Examples Topic Four – Portfolio Optimization: Analytical Techniques - Overview of the Portfolio Optimization Process - Developing the Efficient Frontier: Notion & Analytical Solution - Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization - Unconstrained & Constrained Optimization - Measuring the Cost of Constraint - Examples: Black-Litterman Forecasts, CLP & USD Pension Investing - Portfolio Risk & How Much to Invest in Foreign Assets? - Mean-Downside Risk Optimization - Adjusting Threshold Risk Levels & Power Coefficient - Example of Unconstrained & Constrained Optimization : CLP & USD Portfolio - Alpha-Tracking Error Optimization - Notion of Relative Optimization Problem - Benchmark vs. Peer Group Comparison - Example of Unconstrained & Constrained Optimization: CLP & USD Portfolio

4 Outline of Course Topics (cont.) Topic Five – Portfolio Optimization: Case Studies - U.S. Public Pension Fund: Texas Teachers’ Retirement System - Background & Investment Problem - Initial Allocation & Overview of Mean-Variance Optimization Process - Simulation-Based Forecasted Process: How Much Equity in Portfolio? - Optimization Outcome: Strategic Asset Allocation - Chilean Pension System - Background & Investment Problem - Base Case Economic Assumption - Adjusted Mean-Variance Analysis: Notion of Resampled Efficient Frontier - Strategic Asset Allocations: Unconstrained & Constrained Portfolios - U.S. Public Endowment Fund: University of Texas System - Background & Investment Problem - Initial Allocation & Overview of Mean-Downside Risk Optimization Process - Economic Assumptions & Notion of Potential Value-Added (PVA) - Decision Factors: Selecting From a Set of Optimal Candidate Portfolios Topic Six – Measuring Superior Investment Performance - Estimating Expected Returns & Superior Returns (“Alpha”) - Measuring Alpha in Practice: CAPM vs. Factor Models - Comparing Active vs. Passive Portfolio Management - The Right Answer to the Wrong Question: Concept & Lessons from Prior Research - Historical and Forecasted Evidence on Superior Mutual Fund Performance - Identifying Superior Active Management: Data & Methodology - Empirical Analysis: Time Series, Cross-Sectional, Logit, Economic - The Role of Performance Persistence & Fund Expenses - The Benefit of Selecting Good Managers & Avoiding Bad Ones

5 Outline of Course Topics (cont.) Topic Seven – Investment Tournaments & Manager Compensation - Notion of Investment Tournaments & Incentive Compensation - The Research Premise: - Portfolio Risk Adjustments for “Winning” & “Losing” Managers - Tournaments & Temptations: Data & Methodology - Developing the Risk Change Hypotheses - Empirical Results: Full Sample & Various Sub-Samples - Developing Secondary Hypotheses - Extreme Events, Fund Size, Window-Dressing, Fund Age - Three Additional Questions: - How Risk is Altered - Fund Objective Misclassification, - Strategic Responses of Winners Topic Eight – Currency Hedging & Using Derivatives in Portfolio Management - Developing the Hedging Principle - Hedging Downside Equity Price Risk - Synthetic T-Bill, Protective Put, Equity Collar Protective Put Position - Example: Chile IPSA Index Collar - Yield Enhancement: Covered Call Position - Currency (FX) Hedging & Global Portfolio Management - FX Hedging: Theory & Practice - Conceptual Thinking on FX Hedging in Portfolio Management - Example: CLP vs. USD Investment - Hedged vs. Unhedged Chilean Pension Investments - Discussion with Professor Eduardo Walker - Overview of Issues - Current Research

6 Biographical Sketch of the Course Instructor

7 Access to Course Materials and Instructor You can download electronic copies of many of the course materials (e.g., course outline, course notes, Excel spreadsheets) from the following website: http://www.mccombs.utexas.edu/faculty/keith.brown/chilecourse2.htm You can contact Keith Brown by e-mail at the following address: kcbrown@mail.utexas.edu


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