2 CURRENCY FUTURES Major Features of Futures Contracts A futures contract, like a forward contract is an agreement between two parties to exchange one asset for another, at a specified date in the future, at a rate of exchange specified up front. However, there are a number of significant differences.Major Features of Futures ContractsOrganized Exchanges not OTC markets.Standardization : Amount of asset, expiry dates,deliverable grades etc.Clearing House: A party to all contracts. Guaranteesperformance. Mitigates/Eliminates Credit RiskDaily mark-to-market and a system of margins.Actual delivery is rare.
3 Foreign Currency Futures Contract specifications are established by the exchange on which futures are traded.Major features that are standardized are:Contract sizeMethod of stating exchange ratesMaturity dateLast trading dayCollateral and maintenance marginsSettlementCommissionsUse of a clearinghouse as a counterparty
4 FUTURES CONTRACTS Global Futures Exchanges: 1) IMM: International Monetary Market2) LIFFE: London International Financial Futures Exchange3) CBOT: Chicago Board of Trade4) SIMEX: Singapore InternationalMonetary Exchange5) DTB: Deutsche Termin Bourse6) HKFE: Hong Kong Futures Exchange
5 FUTURES CONTRACTS B. Forward vs. Futures Contracts Basic differences: 1) Trading Locations2) Regulation3) Frequency of delivery4) Size of contract5) Transaction Costs6) Quotes7) Margins8) Credit Risk
6 Comparison of the Forward & Futures Markets Forward Markets Futures MarketsContract size Customized StandardizedDelivery date Customized StandardizedParticipants Banks, brokers, Banks, brokers,MNCs. Public MNCs. Qualifiedspeculation not public speculationencouraged. encouraged.Security Compensating Small securitydeposit bank balances or deposit required.credit lines needed.Clearing Handled by Handled byoperation individual banks exchange& brokers. clearinghouse.Daily settlementsto market prices.
7 Comparison of the Forward & Futures Markets Forward Markets Futures MarketsMarketplace Worldwide Central exchangetelephone floor with worldwidenetwork communications.Regulation Self-regulating CommodityFutures TradingCommission,National FuturesAssociation.Liquidation Mostly settled by Mostly settled byactual delivery. offset.Transaction Bank’s bid/ask NegotiatedCosts spread. brokerage fees.
8 FUTURES CONTRACTS Advantages of Futures: Disadvantages of Futures: 1) Easy liquidation2) Well- organized andstable market.3) No credit riskDisadvantages of Futures:1) Limited to a fewcurrencies2) Limited dates ofdelivery3) Rigid contract sizes
9 FUTURES CONTRACTS ON IMM Available Futures Currencies/Contract Size:1) British pound / 62,5002) Canadian dollar /100,0003) Euro / 125,0004) Swiss franc / 125,0005) Japanese yen / 12.5 million6) Mexican peso / 500,0007) Australian dollar / 100,000
10 Exchange traded currency futures were launched in India on August 29, As of now only USD-INR contracts have been permitted with contract size of USD 1000 with monthly maturities upto twelve months. The contracts will be cash settled in INR. Contracts will expire on the last working day of the month. Quotations will be given in rupee terms.Unlike OTC forwards, no underlying exposure is required to trade in USD-INR futures. Individuals can also trade for purely speculative purposes.Margins will be calculated using a VAR framework.Contracts have started trading on NSE. Eventually, they will also be traded on MCX and BSE. Contracts between INR and other currencies will be introduced later based on perception of market interest.
11 FUTURES CONTRACTS Transaction costs: Leverage is high Commission payment to a floor trader; Brokerage, Bid-Offer SpreadsLeverage is highInitial margin required is relatively low (less than 2% of contract value).
12 FUTURES CONTRACTS: SAFEGUARDS Maximum price movements1) Contracts set to a daily price limit restricting maximum daily price movements.2) If limit is reached, a margin call may be necessary to maintain a minimum margin.
13 System of MarginsInitial margin : When position is openedVariation Margin: Settlement of daily gains and lossesMaintenance Margin : Minimum balance in margin account. Balance falls below this, margin call issued. If not met, position liquidated.Regulators specify minimum margins between clearing members and clearinghouse. Margins at other levels negotiatedMargins can be deposited in cash or specified securities such as T-bills. Interest on securities continues to accrue to owner. Margin is a performance bond.Levels of margins may be changed if volatility increases.
14 System of MarginsWith clearing house guarantee, buyer-seller need not worry about each other’s creditworthiness.Standardized contracts with margin system increase liquidity.Protects clearing house; enhances financial integrity of the exchange. Credit risk issues almost eliminated
15 CLEARING HOUSE CLEARING MEMBER A CLEARING MEMBER B NON-CLEARING MEMBER CUSTOMERCUSTOMERNON-CLEARING MEMBERCUSTOMERCUSTOMER
16 TYPES OF ORDERS IN FUTURES MARKETS Market Orders : Execute at best available priceLimit Orders: Sell above or buy below stated limitsMarket If Touched or MIT Orders: Become market ordersif price touches a triggerStop-Loss Orders : Sell if price falls below a limit; buy if it risesabove a limit. Used to limit losses on existing positionsStop Limit Orders : Stop loss plus limitTime of Day Orders, Day Orders, Good Till Canceled(GTC)OrdersParticipants : Brokers, Floor Traders, Dual Traders, FuturesCommission Merchants. Hedgers and speculatorsboth participate.
17 Currency Futures Contract Specifications Exchange: IMM at Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME)British Pound Japan YenSize: £ ¥12,500,000"Tick": $ 0002 per £ $ per ¥(Per Contract) ($12.50) ($12.50)Expiry Months: January, March, April, June, July, September, October, December, & Spot Month (Both GBP and JPY)Limit: NO LIMIT FOR THE FIRST 15 MINUTES OF TRADING. A schedule of expanding price limits will be in effect when the 15-minute period is ended. (Both GBP and JPY)“Tick” : Minimum size of price movement.
18 JAPANESE YEN (CME) USD PER 100 JPY PRICE QUOTES OCTOBER 1, 2009 Contract Open High Low Settle Chg Op IntDecMarJunSOURCE : WALL STREET JOURNAL
19 BRITISH POUND (CME) OCTOBER 1, 2009 Contract Open High Low Settle Chg Op IntDecMarSOURCE : WALL STREET JOURNAL
20 SWISS FRANC (CME) OCTOBER 1, 2009 Contract Open High Low Settle Chg OP INTDecSOURCE : WALL STREET JOURNAL
21 USD/INR CONTRACT TRADED ON MCX-SX OCTOBER 1, 2009 QUOTES CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE OP.INT NOTIONALVALUEOCTNOVDECJANCONTRACT SIZE : USD TICK SIZE : Rs.0.25NOTIONAL VALUE: VALUE OF CONTRACTS TRADED RS.LAKHEXPIRY DATE: 2 BUSINESS DAYS BEFORE THE LAST WORKING DAYOF THE CONTRACT MONTHSource: BUSINESS STANDARD
22 MCX-SX USD/INR FUTURES, November 25, 2008 The MCX-SX INR December futures opened stronger and made a high of on the back of overnight strength seen in US markets coupled with strong Asian markets in the morning. US rescue package of around $306 billion to Citigroup saw support being provided to stock markets.One-month offshore Non-Deliverable Forward contracts were quoting at 50.62/77, weaker than the onshore spot rate, indicating the outlook for the currency continues to be bearish in the near term.MCX-SX INR December futures towards the end of the session closed towards Supports are at 50 followed by 49.7, while the resistances are seen around followed by levels. MCX-SX INR January futures closed towards and registered a volume of 13.02cr and the open interest increased by 52.03% from the previous session.
23 Mumbai, Dec 2 The December futures contract today ended higher at 50 Mumbai, Dec 2 The December futures contract today ended higher at on the currency derivatives segment of the MCX Stock Exchange (MCX-SX).The December contract resumed lower due to sharp losses seen in Asian stock markets. Looses in the market would see more outflows of funds, which would continue to pressure rupee in the near term.RBI intervention was seen around to arrest the rupee fall. But the inflows into the system are very less compared to outflows by the FIIs. Foreign fund outflows have been a key factor for the rupee's decline this year, which is 22 per cent down.One-month offshore Non-Deliverable Forward contracts were quoting at 51.35/50, weaker than the onshore spot rate, indicating a bearish outlook for the currency.Supports for December contract are at followed by 4990, while the resistance are seen around followed by 5120 levels and January futures closed towards and registered a volume of croreSpot rupee closed stronger during the session. Supports hold between 49.55/65 followed by crucial support at 49.10, Resistance are around followed by 5130 levelsThe MCX-SX active December contract registered volume increase of around per cent over the previous session.
24 FUTURES PRICES, SPOT PRICES AND EXPECTED SPOT PRICES Basis = (Spot Price – Futures Price)Normal Backwardation : Hedgers net short. Speculators must be net long; they would do so if they expect futures price to rise Futures price rises as maturity approaches.Contango : Hedgers net long. Speculators net short. Futures price expected to fall as maturity approachesNet Hedging HypothesisRisk Aversion and behaviour of futures pricesFutures Price = Expected Spot Price ?
25 Backwardation Contango Time Time Expiry Expiry EXPECTED SPOT PRICE FUTURES PRICEFUTURES PRICEExpiryExpiryFigure 1: Normal BackwardationTimeTime
26 FUTURES PRICES AND FORWARD PRICES DETERMINISTIC INTEREST RATES: FUTURES PRICES EQUAL FORWARD PRICESSTOCHASTIC INTEREST RATES : FUTURES PRICES DIFFER FROM SPOT PRICES DUE TO DAILY GAINS AND LOSSESSPOT PRICE AND INTEREST RATE POSITIVELY CORRELATED : FUTURS PRICE EXCEEDS FORWARD PRICENEGATIVE CORRELATION: FUTURES PRICE LESS THAN FORWARD PRICE
27 FUTURES PRICE AND SPOT PRICE CASH-AND -CARRY ARBITRAGE Spot Price of a dollar : Rs.44.003-month Futures Price : 45.75Rupee interest rate : 6% p.a.Dollar interest rate : 4% p.a.Borrow rupees, buy dollars and deposit, sell futures.3 months later, deliver, get rupees, repay loan.
28 Suppose contract size is $50000. Must deposit $(50000)/(1.01) = $Must borrow Rs.( )(44.0) = RsMust repay ( )(1.015) =On expiry, liquidate deposit, deliver on futures collect Rs Net profit:Futures Price “too high” : Buy asset in spot market, store, pay storage cost, sell futures, deliver at expiry.Futures Price too low (e.g.44.60)Reverse cash-and- carry arbitrage. Borrow dollars, convert to rupees and deposit, buy futures. Take delivery at expiry and repay dollar loan. Nothing but Covered Interest Arbitrage
29 Arbitrage and Theoretical Futures Price Let C denote the present value of carrying costs, St the spot price, r the interest rate, and FUt,T the futures price for delivery at T, Then theoretical futures price is given byFUt,T = (St + C)[1 + r(T-t)]Actual futures price higher : cash-and-carry arbitrageActual futures price lower: reverse cash-and-carry arbitrageFor currency futures, futures prices are almost identical to forward prices.A similar relation will hold between FUt,T1 and Fut,T2, T2>T1>t
30 In practice futures price does not exactly equal theoretical futures price. Reasons: 1 Transaction costs – bid-offer spreads, brokerage2 In some cases, restrictions on short sales (Does not apply to currency futures)3 Non-constant interest rates4 Mark-to-market gains/losses.5 “Convenience yield” (Commodity futures)A band of variation around theoretical price.
31 Hedging with Currency Futures A corporation has an asset e.g. a receivable in a currency A.To hedge it should take a futures position such that futures generate a positive cash flow whenever the asset declines in value.The firm is long in the underlying asset, it should go short in futures i.e. it should sell futures contracts on A against its home currency.When the firm is short in the undelying asset – a payable in currency A – it should go long in futures.Cash Position: Receive A; Futures Position: Deliver ACash Position: Deliver A; Futures Position: Receive AIf no futures between A and HC, use futures between A and a currency closely correlated with HC.
32 Futures Hedge : An Example January 30. A UK firm has $ payable due on August 1.£/$ spot:GBP Futures: September: December:Decides to hedge with September futures. GBP value of USD payable at futures price:(250000/1.7125) = £Each GBP futures contract is for £62500.Sells ( /62500) = rounded off to 2 contracts.Could be rounded off to 3 contracts.
33 On July 30 the rates are:July 30: £/$ spot: September futures:Firm buys USD spot. It has to payGBP(250000/1.6850) = £Compared to the GBP value of payable at the spot rate at start this represents a loss of GBPBuys 2 September futures contracts at $ to close out the futures position.Gain on futures : $( )(2)(62500) = £Not a perfect hedge. Basis narrowed.
34 Futures Hedge : Example (contd) Choice of contract underlying was obvious.Firm chose a contract expiring immediately after the payable was to be settled. Is this necessarily the right choice?The number of contracts chosen was such that value of futures position equaled the value of cash market exposure, aside from the unavoidable discrepancy due to standard size of futures contracts. Is this the optimal choice?Futures hedge involves three considerations: Underlying, expiry date of the contract, number of contracts. The latter two problems do not arise with forwards. Why?
35 Three Decisions(1) Which contract should be used i.e. the choice of "underlying".Home currency A; exposure in B; futures on B against Aavailable – Direct hedge.Home currency A; exposure in C; no futures on C againstA. B and C are highly correlated; use futures on B – CrossHedge(2) Choice of expiry date : In February A UK firm books a USD payable maturing on June 3. To hedge, must sell GBP futures (Buy USD futures). Which month? June or later?(3) How many contracts? Choice of “hedge ratio”.Value of futures position = Value of underlying exposure?
36 Choice of expiry date: As expiry date approaches, basis narrows Choice of expiry date: As expiry date approaches, basis narrows. On expiry date futures price equals spot price. This is known as “Convergence”.Does convergence help you or hurt you?If convergence helps, choose near contractIf convergence hurts, choose far contract.However, liquidity less in far contracts; bid-offer spreads are higher; basis volatility more.Thumb rule followed by practitioners: Choose expiry date immediately after underlying exposure is to be settled.
37 Choice of Expiry Date Positive Negative Basis at the start Nature of hedgeLong F AShort A FLong Hedge: You must take delivery of underlying in your futures position. You have bought futures contracts.Short Hedge : You must make delivery of underlying in your futures position. You have sold futures.F: Convergence favours you. A: Convergence against you.Positive Basis: Spot price > Futures Price
38 Choosing the Number of Contracts A Swiss firm has a USD payable of $500,000, maturing November 15.It decides to sell December contracts priced at $0.74/CHF.At this price, the CHF equivalent of $500,000 is CHFSince one CHF contract is for CHF 125,000, it should sell : ( /125000) = rounded off to 5 or 6 contracts.Sounds logical but is it necessarily correct?What is the objective of hedging?To minimize the variance of the hedged position?Define the "Hedge Ratio"(HR) as : VF/VH= (Value of futures position/Value of cash position)Should HR = 1.0 always?
39 Direct Hedge with a Timing Mismatch Choosing Hedge RatioA Swiss firm on February 28 has a USD 500,000 payable to be settled on July 1.Cash market position short USD. Must buy USD futures or short CHF futures.It chooses to hedge by selling September CHF contracts. This contract matures on September 18.The spot rate is USD/CHF or CHF/USDSeptember futures price is USD/CHF or CHF/USDEach CHF contract is for CHFDetermine the number of contracts it should short..
40 Choosing Hedge Ratio ….VC : The value of the cash market position measured in the foreign currency.St : The spot rate at the start stated as units of home currency(HC) per unit of foreign currency(FC).T1 : The date when the cash position has to be settled.T2 : The date when the futures contract expires, T2 > T1VF : The value of the futures position measured in US dollars.Ft,T2 : The price at time t of the futures contract maturing at T2 stated as units of HC per unit of FC.In the example HC: CHF FC: USDVc = $ St = T1: July 1T2: September 18 Ft,T2 =
41 Choosing Hedge Ratio….F~ T1,T2 : The price of the same contract at time T1 (a random variable) S~ T1 : The spot rate at time T1 when the hedge is lifted. Stated as units of HC per unit of FC. (Random variable)The value of the hedged cash flow at time T1 is given byV˜H,T1 = - VCS˜T1 + VF (Ft,T2 – F~ T1,T2)The variance of V˜H,T1 is(VC)2 2(S˜T1) + (VF)2 2(F˜T1T2) – 2VCVF COV(S˜T1 F~ T1,T2)Let H = VF/VC be the hedge ratio
42 Then(VC)2 2(S˜T1) + (VF)2 2(F˜T1T2) – 2VCVF COV(S˜T1 F~ T1,T2)= (VC)2 [2(S˜T1) + H2 2(F˜T1T2) – 2H COV(S˜T1 F~ T1,T2)]To minimize this w.r.t. H2 H 2(F˜T1T2) – 2 COV(S˜T1 F~ T1,T2) = 0This leads toH = VF/VC = COV(S~T1, F~T1T2) / VAR(F~T1T2)We need forward-looking estimates of these parameters.Using past data estimate a regression equation:S~T1 = + F~T1T2 + uThe estimate of can be used as hedge ratio. But this would be a historical estimate.
43 Let us apply this result to the Swiss firm's case. Assume that we have somehow obtained estimates of the covariance of S˜T1 and F˜T1,T2 and the variance of F˜T1,T2.Their ratio is 0.90.Then the USD value of the futures position must be (500,0000.90) = USD 450,000.At the futures price of $0.6888/CHF this translates into CHFWith each contract being CHF 125,000 this is equivalent to 5.23 contracts rounded off to 5 or 6 contracts.
44 The interest parity relation tells us that [1 + rB(T-t)]Ft,T2(A/B) = St(A/B) = k St(A/B)[1 + rA(T-t)] [1 + rB(T-t)]where k =If the factor k remains constant, then(FT1,T2-Ft,T2) = k(ST1 - St)and a hedge ratio VF/VC = 1/k = would give a perfect hedge.But k does not remain constant. Optimal hedge ratio keeps changing
45 Dynamic hedging: As interest rates and spot rate keep changing, recalculate the optimal hedge ratio and rebalance the hedge by selling more futures or buying futures. How frequently?Transaction costs must be considered. Any gain from frequent rebalancing must be weighed against increased transaction costs.Large position, long duration of hedge, more frequent rebalancing warranted.Standard-size problem cannot be circumvented.
46 SPECULATION WITH CURRENCY FUTURES Open Position TradingIn April Spot EUR/USD:June Futures :September Futures:You do not think EUR will rise. It will fall.You do not think EUR will rise so much.How to profit from this view? Sell September.
47 SPECULATION WITH CURRENCY FUTURES On September 10 the rates are :Spot EUR/USD: September futures:Close out by buying a September contract.Profit USD( ) per EUR on EUR= USD minus brokerage etc.First view was wrong; EUR did appreciate but not as much as implied by futures price.
48 SPREAD TRADING Intercommodity Spread In April : Spot EUR/USD : GBP/USD:September Futures: EUR: GBP:Your view: GBP is going to rise against EUR.What should you do?Intracommodity Spread:June EUR: September EUR :Your view: Between June and September EUR will not rise so much. What should you do?
49 INTEREST RATE FUTURES Treasury Bill Futures A futures contract on US treasury bills is traded on the CME. Its specifications are as follows:Product and Trading unit: 13 WEEK TREASURY BILL FUTURES3-month (13-week) U.S. Treasury Bills having a face value at maturity of $1,000,000 Point Description: ½ point = .005 = $ A point here is one basis point or (1/100)th of 1 percent.
50 Clearing=T1 Ticker=TB GLOBEX=GTB CME 13 WEEK US T-BILLTrading Venue: FloorHours7:20 a.m.-2:00 p.m LTD(12:00 p.m.)^ListedAll listed seriesStrikeN/ALimitsNo LimitMinimum FluctuationRegular0.005=$12.50Trade Unit3-month (13-week) U.S. Treasury Bills having a face value at maturity of $1,000,000Settle MethodCash SettledPoint Descriptions? point = .005 = $12.50Contract ListingMar, Jun, Sep, Dec, Four months in March quarterly cycle plus 2 months not in the March cycle (serial months). Current ListingsStrike Price IntervalN/AProduct CodeClearing=T1 Ticker=TB GLOBEX=GTBMinimum FluctuationRegular0.005=$12.50
51 T-Bill Futures Contract on CME…. The dollar value of a point represents interest at 0.01% p.a. on $1 million for a period of 3 months, which works out to $25.Contract Listings: Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec,Four months in March quarterly cycle plus 2 two months not in the March cycle (serial months).The short must deliver a US T-bill with face value USD 1 mio, with 90, 91 or 92 days to maturity.Futures price stated as: Discount yieldRates rise, price falls; rates fall, price rises.
52 Three Month Euro (EURIBOR) Interest Rate Futures Contract (LIFFE) Unit of trading: €1,000,000Delivery months: March, June, September, December, and four serial months, such that 25 delivery months are available for trading, with the nearest six delivery months being consecutive calendar monthsQuotation: minus rate of interestMinimum price movement (tick size and value): (€12.50)Last trading day: Two business days prior to the third Wednesday of the delivery monthDelivery day: First business day after the Last Trading DayTrading hours: 07:00 – 21:00
53 THE EURODOLLAR DEPOSIT CONTRACT The underlying asset is a 3-month Eurodollar deposit of USD 1 million beginning on expiry date of futures.Contract price is stated as (100-Implied Interest Rate)May be cash settled only or both cash settled and physical delivery. If latter, long is actually assigned a deposit at a eurobank.As interest rate rises, contract price falls. As rates fall, contract price rises.To hedge against falling rates, buy futures; to hedge against rising rates sell futures
54 CME Eurodollar Futures Trade Unit : Eurodollar Time Deposit having a principal value of $1,000,000 with a three-month maturity.Settle Method : Cash SettledPoint Size :1 point = 0.01 = $25.00Tick Size (Min Fluctuations)SGX : Half Tick 0.005=$12.50 Quarter =$6.25 for nearest expiring month.FLOOR : Half Tick 0.005=$12.50 Quarter =$6.25 for nearest expiring month.GLOBEX : Half Tick 0.005=$12.50 Quarter =$6.25 for nearest expiring month.
57 LONG TERM INTEREST RATE FUTURES The CBT contract on US T-bonds and T-notes; LIFFE contract on UK guilts. DTB contract on German Bunds etc.The short must deliver a long term bond from among a set of eligible bonds -”Basket Delivery”The CBT contract on US T-bonds: Underlying is a notional T-bond with 15 years to maturity and 8% YTM.Exchange calculates a conversion factor for all eligible bonds.
58 LONG TERM INTEREST RATE FUTURES For US T-bond futures, price stated as % of face value with minimum 1/32% e.g.Price : means 103 and (18/32) percent of $100000Long pays: Settlement Price × Conversion factor+ Accrued InterestConversion Factor necessary because different bonds have different coupons and maturities.An eligible bond has CF of Each of these bonds equals 1.5 of notional bonds.
59 30 Year U.S. Treasury Bonds Futures Contract SizeOne U.S. Treasury bond having a face value at maturity of $100,000 or multiple thereof.Deliverable GradesU.S. Treasury bonds that, if callable, are not callable for at least 15 years from the first day of the delivery month or, if not callable, have a maturity of at least 15 years from the first day of the delivery month. The invoice price equals the futures settlement price times a conversion factor plus accrued interest. The conversion factor is the price of the delivered bond ($1 par value) to yield 6 percent.Tick SizeMinimum price fluctuations shall be in multiples of one-half of one thirty second point per 100 points ($ per contract) except for intermonth spreads, for which minimum price fluctuations shall be in multiples of one-fourth of one thirty-second point per 100 points ($ per contract). Par shall be on the basis of 100 points. Contracts shall not be made on any other price basis.Price QuotePoints ($1,000) and one-half of 1/32 of a point; i.e., equals 80-16/32, equals /32.Contract MonthsMar, Jun, Sep, DecLast Trading DaySeventh business day preceding the last business day of the delivery month. Trading in expiring contracts closes at noon, Chicago time, on the last trading day.Last Delivery DayLast business day of the delivery month.Trading HoursOpen Auction: 7:20 am - 2:00 pm, Chicago time, Monday - Friday Electronic: 5:30 pm - 4:00 pm, Chicago time, Sunday - Friday Trading in expiring contracts closes at noon, Chicago time, on the last trading day
61 Hedging a Commercial Paper Issue. In January a corporation finalises its plans to make an issue of $50 million 90-day commercial paper around mid May.Paper of comparable quality is now yielding 12.05%.At this yield the company hopes to realise $48,493,750.To protect itself against the possibility that rates may rise before its issue hits the market decides to hedge using EURO$ futures.June futures currently quoted atWhat should it do?
62 SPECULATION WITH INTEREST RATE FUTURES Open Position TradingOn September 1, December eurodollar futures on the IMM is trading at A trader believes that short term interest rates are going to fall very soon. He buys a December contract at On subsequent days, the prices and consequent losses/gains are :Day 1: (+$250) Day 2: (-$75)Day 3: (+$325) Day 4: (+$50)Day 5: (-$50) Day 6: (+$125) Liquidates position.Total gain: $625 minus brokerage commissions.
63 An Intra-Contract Spread Trade On February 25 the following prices are quoted for T-bill futures on the IMM :March : 96.02June : 95.25September : 94.50December : 93.00A trader feels that the yield curve is going to become flatter. He has no particular ideas about how interest rates as a whole are going to change but he is confident that long term rates will be lower relative to short-term rates than they are now.
64 Intra-Contract Spread Trade….. If his prediction comes true the spread between near and far contracts will narrow. To profit from this he must sell a near contract and buy a far contract. (”sell a spread"). He sells a September contract at and buys a December contract atBy August 10, rates have fallen, yield curve is flatter:September: December: 94.75Close out. Buy September sell December. Net gain 75 ticks orUSD 1875 minus brokerage.Better strategy: Sell T-bill futures buy T-bond futures.