1. Youth Matters: The Demographics of Youth Around the World
Carl Haub
Senior Demographer, Population Reference Bureau
Center for International Media Assistance
May 28, 2009

2. Who Are Youth?
The United Nations defines “youth” as those ages 15-24, a definition first derived during the International Youth Year in “Children” are those below the age of 15. All UN youth statistics are shown for age
The UN also allows for children to be those up to the age of 18 so that they might be covered under the UN’s Convention on the Rights of the Child.
Many individual countries limit youth to those below the age of majority (treated as an adult under the law), frequently age 18.
A major 2005 National Research Council study defined youth as ages
The UN also distinguishes between teenagers ( ) and “young adults” (20-24).
Because ready access to age data in many developing countries is in five year age groups, analysis using many specialized age groups can be difficult.

3. Projected World Youth Population, Ages 15–24, 1950 - 2050
Billions
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision

4. Projected World Youth Population, Ages 15–24, by Region, 1950 - 2050
Billions
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision

5. The “Youth Bulge” and the “Demographic Dividend”
The youth bulge is a somewhat vague concept, used with varying definitions
or, at times, with no clear definition at all.
It may simply mean a large number of youth with the colorful term “bulge” only serving to confound the issue.
The bulge may be defined as those ages 15–24 or 15–29 as a percentage of the adult population, which may be adults age 30 or above or adults in the prime working ages 30 and above.
The demographic dividend is related to the bulge in that it is usually described in terms of a larger group in the working ages (especially the younger working ages) relative to those ages 0-14.
For that to happen, it is necessary that fertility decline to rather low levels so that the 0-4 age group is smaller than 5-9 for the first time. That has only begun to happen in some developing countries and is quite distant in most.

6. Graphing the Youth Bulge, Population 15–29 As a Percent of 30+ Is a Large Number in the Young Working Age a Benefit by Itself?
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision

7. Nandan Nilekani on the Demographic Dividend
Yes, in fact, I think the big change in India is that over the last 40 years we've gone from seeing a population as a burden to population as human capital. And the demographic dividend in particular arises because population growth rates have slowed down. And so we have a huge hump of people in the working age of 15-65, which is typically when economies grow very rapidly Nandan Nilekani, co-founder of Infosys Marketplace, April 2, 2009

8. Population Pyramid, India, 2006 – Demographic Dividend?
Age
Females
Males
Percent of total population
Population Reference Bureau projections, based on 2001 Census of India

9. Population Pyramid, Thailand, 2005 – Perhaps This Is the Demographic Dividend
Age
Females
Males
Percent of total population
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision

10. The “Demographic Divide” The Example of Nigeria and Japan
Nigeria Japan
Population 2008 (millions)
Population
Lifetime Births per Woman
Annual Number of Births ,300, ,100,000
Percent of Population Below Age
Population Below Age ,000, ,000,000
Population Ages ,000, ,000,000
Percent of Population Age
Life Expectancy at Birth
Annual Number of Infant Deaths , ,900
2008 World Population Data Sheet of the Population Reference Bureau

11. Population Under Age 15 (Percent)
Around 1980 and 2008
ca ca. 2008
Western Africa
Middle Africa
Eastern Africa
Northern Africa
Southern Africa
India
China
1980 and 2008 World Population Data Sheets of the Population Reference Bureau

12. The Total Fertility Rate
The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime if the rate of childbearing of a given year were to remain constant. An example from Nigeria:
Age of mother Births per 1,000 women
Sum (TFR) times five
2008 Demographic and Health Survey of Nigeria, preliminary report

13. Lifetime children per woman
United Nations Population Division, Demographic and Health Surveys

14. Lifetime children per woman
United Nations Population Division, Demographic and Health Surveys, Population Reference Bureau estimates

15. Total Fertility Rate, Five Latin American Countries, 1970, 2000/2003 and 2006/2008
Lifetime children per woman
United Nations Population Division, Demographic and Health Surveys, Population Reference Bureau estimates

16. Total Fertility Rate in Pakistan, by Wealth Quintile, 2006-2007
Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey

17. Population Reference Bureau, World’s Youth Data Sheet, 2006

18. Population Reference Bureau, World’s Youth Data Sheet, 2006