1. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences Gambling Expansion in New Hampshire David Lumbert Boyd Lever Andrew Newcomb Is it a Gamble?

2. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences New Hampshire Gaming Study Commission –Cannibalization of Lottery Revenue –Gambling and Crime –Social Impacts

3. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences The Fiscal Impacts of Casino Legalization Cannibalization of State Lottery Revenue? VS.

4. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences - 43 States with Lotteries - Contributing $70 to $2500 Million to State Budgets The United States: A Nation of Lotteries

5. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences What About Introducing Casinos ? NEED TO EDIT HERE In Theory: - “Significant Cannibalization” of Lottery Revenue - Fink, Rork… what did he say - Navin… what did he say But models are specific; Not universally applicable. Empirical Evidence from the 10 states with both

6. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences - 10 States with Lotteries & Casinos - The Research Targets to Determine the Degree of Cannibalization of Lottery Revenues States with Casinos and Lotteries

7. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences On Average, No Decrease in Lottery Revenue post-Casino StateYearsΔ RevenuePercent Increase Colorado2001-844.8 Million44.3 % Illinois2002-8490 Million31.0 % Indiana2001-8275 Million50.1 % Iowa2001-874.1 Million42.4 % Louisiana2001-889.3 Million31.4 % Missouri2001-9460 Million90.0 % New Jersey2001-8500 Million25.0 % Pennsylvania2000-81.4 Billion87.5 % South Dakota2001-8118 Million20.0 %

8. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences Casinos and Employment Trends: CountiesWarren, MS Tunica, MS Massac, IL Lee, IA St. Clair, IL (URBAN) St. Louis, MO (URBAN) Casino Employment 2,44312,6898833671,1842,050 # Casinos491111 County Employment 25,0305,636766516,708108,270540,981 County Population49,3439,6351508133,313256,5991,015,417 Unemployment, pre-casino 8.8%10.7%9.5%3.7%9.4%3.1% Unemployment, post-casino 4.2%7.1%4.4%3.3%5.9%3.9% State Unemployment, pre-casino 8.2% 7.5%3.7%7.5%4.2% State Unemployment, post-casino 5.5% 5.4%3.3%5.4%4.7%

9. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences Findings and Future Directions: - Fear of Lethal Cannibalization Not Generally Realistic - Tax Rate on Commercial Casino ? -- Compare Revenues in 10 States immediately pre- & post- Casino - Tease out the magnitude of cannibalization - Quantify Fiscal Impacts of Changes in Casino-related Employment - Money is Not Everything: What are the other Impacts of Gambling Expansion ?

10. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences Gambling and Crime Will expanding gambling in New Hampshire lead to an increase in crime?

11. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences A C B D E 2008 Crime Rates in NH and United States NH is safest state in country

12. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences Tourism-Crime Connection  No specific link between gambling and street crime (Miller and Schwartz, 1998)  As population density increases, crime rate increases  Tourists particularly vulnerable  Nongambling resort complex constructed in Kohala, Hawaii and saw crime rise 300 percent in five years

13. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences Casino-Crime Connection  Casino patrons are different from patrons to other tourist destinations  More incentives to commit crimes around casinos  Areas that legalize gambling will almost certainly see increases in crime Percentage Reporting

14. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences Casinos Cause Crime  8% of crime in casino counties would not be there if the casinos were not there  Crime in casinos remains stable for three years following establishment, but increases after three years  First ten years of casinos operating in Atlantic City crime rose 258%  Casinos are associated with an increase of crime in Wisconsin, 6.7% of major crimes caused by casinos

15. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences Casinos Don’t Cause Crime  Some riverboat casinos in Indiana did not see crime raise  Crime in the community does not increase, only crime in the hotels and casinos increases(Curran and Scarpitti,1991)  Casino patrons carry large amounts of cash and drink free alcohol, but actual casinos do not cause crime (Walker, 2008)  2003 Study: Half of cities with casinos saw crime increase, half saw crime decrease

16. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences Findings on Crime  No clear consensus exists on whether or not casinos actually cause crime, but very likely that property crimes in and around the casino will increase  If tourism increases, New Hampshire must be prepared to allocate adequate resources to fighting the crime associated with gambling  Avoid “boomtown” phenomenon (Peak, 1993) where bringing a casino to a rural area causes shock to law enforcement  Further research is needed in determining actual costs of crime, effect gambling has on tourism, and evaluating current crime rates

17. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences What are the other social impacts of gambling?

18. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences Who are Problem and Pathological Gamblers? Comprise 2-5% of total adult population Contribute 25-50% of all casino revenues Cost $10,000 per pathological gambler in costs annually

19. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences Business and Employment Costs Loss Productivity on Job$1,082.00 Lost Time and Unemployment$2,913.00 Bankruptcy$316.00 SuicideN/A Illness$700.00 Social Service Costs Therapy/Treatment Costs$189.00 Unemployent and Other Soc. Svc.$442.00 Family Costs Divorce, Separation$111.00 Abused Dollars$3,834.00 Total$9,587.00 Annual Social Cost per Pathological Gambler

20. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences Links to Problem Gambling?  Proximity  Age  Type of Gambling

21. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences Gambling and Loss of Social Capital? Social Capital is Already Declining… So? Casino Gambling Expedites the Loss

22. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences Economic Transformation

23. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences Findings and Future Directions

24. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Policy Research Shop The Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences