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Presentation title / Audience / Location / Date / © George Wimpey 2002.

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Presentation on theme: "Presentation title / Audience / Location / Date / © George Wimpey 2002."— Presentation transcript:

1 Presentation title / Audience / Location / Date / © George Wimpey 2002

2 Credit Suisse First Boston UK Housing Conference Wednesday 21 April 2004 Andrew Carr-Locke Finance Director, George Wimpey Plc

3 Agenda  Overview of George Wimpey  The UK Housing Market  The Barker Review - Key Recommendations  The Barker Review - Impact on the Industry and George Wimpey  Summary and Conclusions 3

4 Overview of George Wimpey

5 Background to GW  George Wimpey established in 1880  Became a focused housebuilder in 1996 Since 2001 - a changed company:  Jan 2001 - merger of McLean Homes and Wimpey Homes  Oct 2001 - acquisition of McAlpine Homes  Nov 2002 - acquisition of Laing Homes  Combined cost savings in excess of £70m in the UK  Have also increased investment in US arm - Morrison Homes 5

6 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 19992000200120022003 Turnover £m 0 100 200 300 400 500 EBITE £m TurnoverOp profit Five-year review  CAGR of 17% in turnover and 39% in PBT in past 5 years  Core UK margins have risen from 8.4% to 17.1%  US margins have risen from 8.1% to 11.9%  16,570 completions globally in 2003 6

7 George Wimpey today  Operating through 27 regional business in the UK under two brands  core ‘George Wimpey’ brand nationally  ‘Laing Homes’ brand in SE and Midlands  Diverse product mix  George Wimpey value positioning  Laing Homes premium positioning Bristol Manchester Liverpool Newcastle Edinburgh Glasgow Birmingham Leeds London George Wimpey regional business Laing Homes regional business 7

8 George Wimpey today  Morrison Homes have 12 regional offices located across six states  Building a range of single family homes  Morrison now represents 21% of Group turnover Sacramento Denver Atlanta Sarasota Tampa Orlando Jacksonville Austin Dallas Phoenix Central Valley Houston 8

9 Relative share price performance re-based from Jan 2001 2001200220032004 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 George WimpeyConst & Building MaterialsFTSE 100 9

10 The UK Housing Market

11 Supply / demand imbalance Increasing demand  Net immigration  Birth rate  Increase in longevity  Reduction in average household size  Demand is ever increasing Constrained supply  Restrictive planning regime  Ageing housing stock - c.15,000 removed / demolished p.a*.  Annual shortfall of c.40,000 units* *Source: Barker Review 11

12 Price inflation / affordability  This has lead to high levels of house price inflation in recent years 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 83848586878889909192939495969798990001020304 House price / Earnings ratio Source: HBOS 12

13 Price inflation / affordability  However - affordability remains good  historically low interest rates  record levels of employment 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 838485868788899091929394959697989900010203 Mortgage repayments as % of ave earnings Source: Barker Review 13

14 First time buyers  UK owner occupancy rates are amongst the highest in the world  Proportion of first time buyers has decreased  Evidence that FTB’s are buying later  Potential for rental sector to further develop  Requirement for increase in provision in affordable housing Source: ODPM 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 81828384858687888990919293949596979899000102 % owner occupiers in England 14

15 The Barker Review Key recommendations

16 Barker recommendations Output  Housing output needs to increase significantly to meet demand  Affordability should be a key criterion when setting housing targets Planning  Prime responsibility for housing decisions should be at the regional level  Additional planning routes should be available to housebuilders  Regions should be able to diverge from PPG3 where appropriate Government funding  Local government should receive greater financial gain from new housing developments, so the benefits better match the costs  Government should finance “pump-priming” infrastructure  Government needs to increase funding of “sub-market” housing 16

17 Barker recommendations Taxation  A planning-gain supplement is the best way to tax land “rent” profits  Alternatives, such as VAT, could have perverse effects on land supply  This new tax should partially replace S 106 agreements Requirements on industry  The industry must improve customer satisfaction significantly  The industry should work to increase off-site prefabrication  And increase the number of apprentices and training generally  And work with CABE on a code of best practice for external design  Local Authorities should set conditions to increase build rates on new sites 17

18 The Barker Review Impact on the Industry and GW

19 Impact on housebuilders Output  If fully implemented, today’s constraints on growing volumes will be lifted  Steady growth in volumes will underpin earnings growth for largest companies Product  Flexibility from PPG3 will potentially increase attractiveness to consumer and responsive value engineering Prices  If supply responds to demand, prices should become more stable  Even a limited supply response would stop price increases being a one way bet Profits  Margins are likely to stabilise or converge to “normal” levels over time  However volume growth will enable profits of the efficient producer to grow Land market  As prices moderate and land supply improves, land prices will rise more slowly Cash  More stable land prices will lead to significantly higher cash generation  This should increase economic value added and hence earnings multiples: valuations should become earnings-driven rather than assets-driven 19

20 Housebuilder P/E ratios 20

21 Impact on housebuilders Competition  Barker’s vision is that competition will be based on delivery of superior value to customers at lowest cost: a normal competitive industry model Operating strategies  Successful operational strategies will become  delivering superior customer satisfaction  at lowest total cost  on developments that meet modern “standards” of design Industry consolidation  Benefits of scale will increase whilst limits to scale will reduce  Acquisition remains an alternative to organic growth to deliver profit growth Land banks  Today, competitive advantage comes from holding long land banks  With more responsive supply, holding gain much reduced - < cost of capital  Land banks will be held for operational need, not for financial returns 21

22 ROCE comparison Year to Dec 2003 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930 Operating margin % Asset turn 25% ROCE 15% ROCE 20% ROCE GW 2003 GW 2002 Laing 22 Competitors Source: GW estimates from company information

23 Challenges for the industry Increasing volume growth rates  Need to create organisation structure and processes which support growth  GW: flexible organisation plus two brands will support volume growth Lower house price inflation  Lower house price price inflation will increase exposure to rising costs  GW: scale and focus on “best practice” processes ensures tight control of costs Pressure to increase build-out rates  There will be pressure to increase selling and build rates (from ave c0.7 a week)  GW: already builds at 1 a week (highest in industry) - efficient build processes Meeting customer needs  Industry must raise average “would you refer?” from 46% to 75%  GW: achieved 85%, Laing Homes 70% in 2003; all management bonused on “willingness to refer”; rigorous benchmarking between GW, Laing Homes and Morrison 23

24 Customer satisfaction 2003 MORI poll for Housing Forum www.constructingexcellence.org.uk 0 Below industry average Industry average Above industry average 0100200300400500600700 Sample size George Wimpey Greater market share Smaller market share 24

25 Challenges for the industry Innovation  Industry must demonstrate embrace of prefabrication: many examples in place, but to date these lack benefits of scale  GW: uses prefabricated components wherever possible and timber- frame where appropriate; in discussion with Universities on approach to innovation Attracting skilled workers  Industry must increase investment in training and employ more apprentices  GW: employs > 300 apprentices; structured programme of personal development and training at all levels up to international graduate programme Design  Industry must continue to develop innovative design whilst controlling costs  Industry must demonstrate its design standards have improved  GW: no national house-types; inter-regional bench-marking enables standardisation of best footprints with flexibility of external design 25

26 Summary and Conclusions

27 Summary and Conclusions: excellent news for the industry The Barker Review establishes a favourable political climate for housing  It puts housing high up the political agenda  It confirms the obstacle to meeting housing need is the planning system  Whilst implementation will be slow, the volume “risk” is now on the upside  The industry is absolved from land hoarding It creates a tax framework favourable to the industry  A planning gain supplement will fall on land owners rather than the industry  The problems associated with VAT are underlined  The need to “simplify” S106 agreements is confirmed The economics of the industry will be much improved  Lower house price inflation will lead to lower land inflation  Whilst “stock gains” will be reduced, cash generation should greatly improve  This should lead to higher EVA and hence higher multiples 27

28 Summary and Conclusions: and excellent news for George Wimpey The Barker Review also requires changes in the industry  Its objective is that competition should be based on delivering superior customer satisfaction at lowest cost: most business models need to change  This will enhance the benefits of scale, whilst reducing the limits to scale  There will be winners and losers based on speed of adaptation to a new world Different operating models and efficiencies will be affect relative valuations  Relative values will reflect ability to win under the new model rather than just length of land banks  Long land banks will not produce a return above the cost of capital George Wimpey is well placed to benefit from these changes  We already achieves customer scores well ahead of the Barker target  Our fast build rate and organisational model gives us low production costs  We have established a good reputation with CABE and others for innovative design and forward-looking vision 28

29 Implementation and reality Obstacles to implementation  Limited regional government infrastructure  Size and complexity of the South East Region  Need for a political consensus on  roles of regional, county and district planning bodies  introduction and rate of a planning-gain supplement Approach to implementation  Extensive industry consultation planned  Conservative Party conducting policy review Realistic timeframe  Implementation unlikely until after the next election  Important for industry meanwhile to address those issues within its control  Will still change industry mindset, and hence strategies for volume growth 29

30 Short term objectives  Barker Review is far reaching and will take time to implement  In the short term we are focused on delivering growth without dramatic increases in UK volumes or further UK price inflation through:  further investment in and growth of Morrison Homes  customer options sales & related services  Laing Homes - volume and margin growth  modest growth in core George Wimpey UK business  George Wimpey will continue to be active in ongoing discussions and we fully support recommendations of the Review made to date. 30

31 Presentation title / Audience / Location / Date / © George Wimpey 2002


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