1. Poverty and Inequality Outcomes under Globalisation Informal Formalisation of Labour Market in India Poverty and Inequality Outcomes under Globalisation Informal Formalisation of Labour Market in India Amitabh Kundu Jawaharlal Nehru University Institute of Social Studies, The Hague The 2 nd November, 2009

2. Macro Growth Perspective for India under Global Meltdown Indian economy is to grow at 6.5 per cent during 2008-09 in the backdrop 8 per cent plus growth over the past five years. The global economy, however, is projected to decline by one percentage point. Indian economy is to grow at 6.5 per cent during 2008-09 in the backdrop 8 per cent plus growth over the past five years. The global economy, however, is projected to decline by one percentage point. One must look at India’s growth performance and rapid turn-around in the context of a long term scenario and interrelations between income and employment growth. One must look at India’s growth performance and rapid turn-around in the context of a long term scenario and interrelations between income and employment growth.

3. Thrust of the Presentation Global crisis has not impacted India severely not simply due to stimulus measures but longstanding traditions of financial restraint, public sector institutions for provision of subsidided basic goods and services and, most importantly, characteristics of labour market and developments therein linked with globalization. The presentation is focused on Labour market characteristics. Global crisis has not impacted India severely not simply due to stimulus measures but longstanding traditions of financial restraint, public sector institutions for provision of subsidided basic goods and services and, most importantly, characteristics of labour market and developments therein linked with globalization. The presentation is focused on Labour market characteristics.

6. Graph 4 Persons below the poverty line (in percentage) Source: Poverty estimates of Planning Commission for various years

7. Table 1 Employment and GDP growth rates since 1972

8. 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 60.0 62.0 64.0 66.0 68.0 70.0 72.0 196019651970197519801985199019952000200120022003 Population ages 15-64 (% of total) China India South Asia East Asia & Pacific High income European Monetary Union Graph 1A: Percentage of Population in the Age Group 15-64 to Total Population Source: World Development Indicators (WDI), UN Population Division.

9. Graph 1B: Projection of Percentage of Population in the Age Group 15-64 to Total Population Note: Computed on the basis of the data obtained from World Population Prospects, 2004.

10. Table 2: Percent workers in 15–59 age by Usual, Weekly & Daily Status Principal Status Principal Status Survey Year Rural Rural Urban Urban MenWomenMenWomen 1977–7890.240.779.619.3 198388.440.179.518.7 1987–886.239.877.918.3 1993–486.536.778.818.4 1999–0085.533.477.917.6 2004-0585.538.074.518.7 Weekly status Daily status Weekly status Daily status Weekly status Daily status Weekly status Daily status 1977–887.181.537.731.478.675.719.617.1 198385.480.236.431.678.375.218.416.5 1987–884.083.535.333.277.375.118.517.0 1993–485.180.942.034.378.276.020.918.1 1999–0083.478.140.832.977.174.419.116.7 2004-0583.878.143.233.978.576.022.319.4

11. Table 3 : Percent unemployed to labourforce in rural areas Year/MaleFemale Usual principal+ subsidiary status Weekly status Daily status Usual Principal + subsidiary status Weekly status Daily status 1977–781.33.67.12.04.19.2 Jan–Dec 83 1.43.77.50.74.39.0 1987–881.84.24.62.44.49.0 1989–901.32.6-0.62.1- 1990–911.12.2-0.32.1- July–Dec 91 1.62.2-0.71.2- Jan–Dec 92 1.22.2-0.61.2- 1993–941.43.15.60.92.95.6 1994–951.01.8M0.41.2m 1995–961.31.8M0.70.9m 19971.22M0.71.8m 19982.12.9M1.52.7m 1999–20001.73.97.21.03.77.0 2004-05 1.63.88.01.84.28.7 2005-06 2.04.38.31.23.37.5

12. Table 4: Percent unemployed to labour force in urban areas Year/MaleFemale Usual principal + subsidiary status Weekly status Daily status Usual Principal + subsidiary status Weekly status Daily status 1977–785.47.19.412.410.914.5 Jan–Dec 83 5.16.79.24.97.511.0 1987–885.26.68.86.29.212.0 1989–903.94.5M2.74m 1990–914.55.1M4.75.3m July–Dec 91 4.14.8M4.35.6m Jan–Dec 92 4.34.6M5.86.2m 1993–944.15.26.76.28.410.4 1994–953.43.9M3.44m 1995–963.84.1M3.13.5m 19973.94.3M4.45.8m 19985.15.4M6.87.8m 1999–20004.55.67.35.77.39.4 2004-05 3.85.27.56.99.011.6 2005-06 4.55.87.96.37.710.1

13. Table 5: Distribution of usually employed (Principal and Subsidiary status) by category of employment Year Self- employed Regular salaried employees Casual labour Self- employed Regular salaried employees Casual labour Rural male Rural female 2004-0558.19.032.963.73.732.6 1999-0055.08.836.257.33.139.6 1993-9457.78.533.858.62.738.7 1987-8858.610.031.460.83.735.5 198360.510.329.261.92.835.3 Urban male Urban female 2004-0544.840.614.647.735.616.7 1999-0041.541.716.845.333.321.4 1993-9441.742.016.345.828.425.8 1987-8841.743.714.647.127.525.4 198340.943.715.445.825.828.4 Source: Statement 5.7, NSS Report 515

14. Table 5 Growth rate of real wages of regular workers, 1999-00 to 2004-05

15. Stimulus Packages I & II in India Monetary Measures More liquidity in Banks through reduction in CRR rapo rates More liquidity in Banks through reduction in CRR rapo rates Recapitalising Public Sector Banks; strengthening global organisations like World Bank for this purpose (at G 20) Recapitalising Public Sector Banks; strengthening global organisations like World Bank for this purpose (at G 20) WB loan of US $2 billion to provide budgetary support to the Govt, enhancing capital of select public sector banks. WB loan of US $2 billion to provide budgetary support to the Govt, enhancing capital of select public sector banks. Banks and SPV for supporting non-banking institutions: the latter permitted to access ECB, if in infrastructure financing. Banks and SPV for supporting non-banking institutions: the latter permitted to access ECB, if in infrastructure financing. RBI credit to Exim Bank for post shipment credit RBI credit to Exim Bank for post shipment credit India Infrastructure Finance Company Limited (IIFCL) raising funds (also tax free bonds) to refinance banks lending for infrastructure. India Infrastructure Finance Company Limited (IIFCL) raising funds (also tax free bonds) to refinance banks lending for infrastructure. State governments allowed additional market borrowings of Rs. 300,000 million due to revenue shortfall. State governments allowed additional market borrowings of Rs. 300,000 million due to revenue shortfall. The RBI injected Rs.3000,000 million liquidity into the system through these measures The RBI injected Rs.3000,000 million liquidity into the system through these measures

16. Fiscal Stimulus: Government Spending Despite FRBM, the budget 2008-09 puts forward high fiscal deficit of 6.8 % against the target of 2.5 %. The govt proposes to reduce it marginally to 5.5 % next year (implying huge borrowing) and reducing to 4% only by 2010-11 Despite FRBM, the budget 2008-09 puts forward high fiscal deficit of 6.8 % against the target of 2.5 %. The govt proposes to reduce it marginally to 5.5 % next year (implying huge borrowing) and reducing to 4% only by 2010-11 Additional plan Expenditure for Flagship Program Additional plan Expenditure for Flagship Program Approval of 37 infrastructure projects from August 2008 to January 2009. Approval of 54 central sector infrastructure projects and 23 other projects for viability gap funding during 2008-09. Approval of 37 infrastructure projects from August 2008 to January 2009. Approval of 54 central sector infrastructure projects and 23 other projects for viability gap funding during 2008-09. Affordable housing for different income groups; Integrated housing projects for the Poor Affordable housing for different income groups; Integrated housing projects for the Poor $500 billion investment in infrastructure during this Plan. $500 billion investment in infrastructure during this Plan. Commitment of no premature withdrawal of stimulus Commitment of no premature withdrawal of stimulus Lowest interest rate regime – still to continue Lowest interest rate regime – still to continue

17. Incentives to Production and Export Reduction in CENVAT Reduction in CENVAT Interest rate reduced and tax concessions for small and micro enterprises. Enhancement of amount under Credit Guarantee Scheme Interest rate reduced and tax concessions for small and micro enterprises. Enhancement of amount under Credit Guarantee Scheme Govt Banks enhancing working capital of manufacturing and business enterprises Govt Banks enhancing working capital of manufacturing and business enterprises Higher credit targets for Govt. Banks; Government monitoring sectoral allocation favouring labour intensive sectors. Higher credit targets for Govt. Banks; Government monitoring sectoral allocation favouring labour intensive sectors.

18. Infrastructural investment for tackling crisis and Long Term Development Bank lending liberally for infrastructural projects Bank lending liberally for infrastructural projects Foreign borrowing for infrastructure and real estate sectors relaxed and foreign investment limit in corporate bonds raised Foreign borrowing for infrastructure and real estate sectors relaxed and foreign investment limit in corporate bonds raised WB loan of US $2.3 billion to India Infrastructure Finance Company, Power System Development Project and Andhra Pradesh Rural Water Supply & Sanitation Project are meeting demand deficit and strengthening infrastructural development WB loan of US $2.3 billion to India Infrastructure Finance Company, Power System Development Project and Andhra Pradesh Rural Water Supply & Sanitation Project are meeting demand deficit and strengthening infrastructural development

19. Stimulus for Exports and FDI Duty drawbacks allowing exporters claim taxes paid on inputs; extension of the scheme. Duty drawbacks allowing exporters claim taxes paid on inputs; extension of the scheme. Restoring curbs on cheap import, duties on import of cement, Zinc and ferro-alloys, TMT bars etc. removed earlier to fight inflation. Restoring curbs on cheap import, duties on import of cement, Zinc and ferro-alloys, TMT bars etc. removed earlier to fight inflation. DEPB rates hiked as incentive to exporters DEPB rates hiked as incentive to exporters Development of integrated townships' permitted with external funds. FII investment limit in rupee denominated corporate bonds increased. Development of integrated townships' permitted with external funds. FII investment limit in rupee denominated corporate bonds increased. FDI permitted up to 100 percent on automatic route, in most sectors and activities. FDI permitted up to 100 percent on automatic route, in most sectors and activities. Credit guarantee scheme for exporters Credit guarantee scheme for exporters Urging at G 20 colleagues not to be proectionist Urging at G 20 colleagues not to be proectionist

20. Table 6 Quarterly Estimate of Growth in Gross Domestic Product at 1999-00 prices 2007-082008-092009-10 Quarter 19.27.86.1(Projected) Quarter 29.07.7 NA Between 6.5 & 7.0 Quarter 39.35.8 NA Quarter 48.65.8 NA

21. Factors sustaining growth during crisis No increase in real wages of regular and casual workers during boom; not much scope of a cut No increase in real wages of regular and casual workers during boom; not much scope of a cut Low cost support system is not dismantled in early crisis; Informal employment not curtailed Low cost support system is not dismantled in early crisis; Informal employment not curtailed Organised sector including govt. units employing increasingly unorganised workers; Business environment created through relaxation in regulatory controls on labour Organised sector including govt. units employing increasingly unorganised workers; Business environment created through relaxation in regulatory controls on labour Labour market barriers, registration, govet license along with low wages protecting informal employment Labour market barriers, registration, govet license along with low wages protecting informal employment High media mobilisation of retrenchment in formal sector, inviting Govt intervention High media mobilisation of retrenchment in formal sector, inviting Govt intervention

22. Long run impact and sustainability of growth Government’s social spending, expansion of safety nets curtailed; access of poor to basic amenities adversely affected Government’s social spending, expansion of safety nets curtailed; access of poor to basic amenities adversely affected Households spending less on education and health services and selling their livelihood supporting assets depend, adversely affecting realisation of IMR and educational MDGs Households spending less on education and health services and selling their livelihood supporting assets depend, adversely affecting realisation of IMR and educational MDGs Long-run consequences of crisis more severe than short run. Long-run consequences of crisis more severe than short run. Unorganised sector must get a share of benefits to avoid Lewisian trap of low internal demand. Extending social security to all workers and provision of basic amenities and housing could boost up effective demand and growth. Unorganised sector must get a share of benefits to avoid Lewisian trap of low internal demand. Extending social security to all workers and provision of basic amenities and housing could boost up effective demand and growth.

23. Happy Landing