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Confidential. Not for distribution. Page and Slide # 0 National Governor’s Association Center for Best Practices Fuel Cell Economic Development Programs An Overview of the Market April 29, 2004
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Confidential. Not for distribution. Page and Slide # 1 Technology - Fuel Cells
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Confidential. Not for distribution. Page and Slide # 2 Energy & Power Technology Sector Equity Performance Energy & Power Tech sector has rallied to outperform the Nasdaq over last 12 months Source: FactSet and RBC Capital Markets
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Confidential. Not for distribution. Page and Slide # 3 Fuel Cell Manufacturing Companies in the US and Canada 2004 FLORIDA Apollo Energy GEORGIA Fuel Cell Resources TEXAS LynnTech CALIFORNIA Metallic Power Direct Methanol Fuel Cell Anuvu BRITISH COLUMBIA Ballard Power Palcan Fuel Cell WASHINGTON Avista Labs Nu Element Neah Power IDAHO IdaTech UTAH Cerametec VersaPower COLORADO Ascent Power Sys. Protonetics ALBERTA Global Thermoelectric ILLINOIS Mosaic Energy OHIO McDermott Tech PENNSYLVANIA Siemens Power ONTARIO Hydrogenics Astris Energi Fuel Cell Technologies Ltd NEW YORK Plug Power Mechanical Technology CONNECTICUT Fuel Cell Energy UTC Fuel Cell Proton Energy GenCell Infinity MASSACHUSETT S Acumentrics Nuvera Ztek Cell Tech Power Protonex NEW JERSEY Millenium Cell Symbols Designate Company Size Large Medium Small - Gary Simon, Sigma Energy Group
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Confidential. Not for distribution. Page and Slide # 4 Emerging Markets - Fuel Cells U.S. Fuel Cell Related Sales 2002 2001 50 150 200 100 Price Waterhouse-Coopers estimates markets for fuel cells could be as large as $1.7 trillion by 2020. Focus by Japan and EU on PEMFC Commercialization of PEMFC is close and considered to be the most promising fuel cell technology today. U.S. Fuel Cell Related Expenditures 2002 2001 100 300 400 200 Estimated Government and Corporate Spending in R&D, 2001 JapanUS 100 300 400 200 EUCanada - Corporate - Government
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Confidential. Not for distribution. Page and Slide # 5 Fuel Cell Cost Curves Time Cost (US$/kW) Ballard, 2002 Plug, 2003 Nippon Oil, 2004 100 Technology Cost (US$/kW) AFC 1,000 PEMFC DMFC MCFC SOFC PAFC 10,000100,000 Source: Fuel Cell Today (March 2004)
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Confidential. Not for distribution. Page and Slide # 6 Emerging Markets - Renewable Energy Wind 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 COE cents/kWh 40 30 20 10 0 1 These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data (levelized cents/kWh in constant $2000). Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt) Updated: October 2002 * Vestas and NEG-Micon merged their operations to create the largest wind turbine manufacturing group Declining costs and increasing demand present disruptive factors for the energy sector! Photovoltaic 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 100 80 60 40 20 0 COE cents/kWh demand growth 26% for 2003 global annual sales of $9 billion top manufacturers * - Vestas, NEG-Micon, GE key markets - Germany, US, Spain demand growth 20-25% per year global annual sales of $3-4 billion top manufacturers - Sharp, BP, Kyocera, and Shell (AstroPower among top 10) key markets - Japan, Germany, U.S.
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Confidential. Not for distribution. Page and Slide # 7 Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Companies - Endurance is an Issue Source: RBC Capital Markets Signs of a market bottom! More M&A Activity Likely!! Announced M&A Transactions Cumulative Announced “Restructurings” 2003 200220012000 1 2 3 2003 200220012000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
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Confidential. Not for distribution. Page and Slide # 8 Recent M&A Activity in Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Ballard Power acquires XCELLIS and Ecostar (October 2001) - $348 M - all stock - PEM fuel cells, vehicular fuel cell engines and electronic drive systems technology - combine all three pieces into one entity to lower overall costs and accelerate product development. Plug Power merges with H Power (November 2002) - $50.7 M - all stock - Stationary PEM fuel cell technology developers Stuart Energy acquires Vandenborre Technologies (December 2002) - $18 M - $11.6 M stock and $6.4 M cash - Developers of alkaline electrolysis based hydrogen generation systems Hydrogenics acquires Greenlight Power (January 2003) - $19 M - $16.75 M stock and $2.25 M cash - Fuel cell test station developers Distributed Energy Systems acquires Northern Power Systems (May 2003) - $27.5 M - $8.5 M stock and $19 M cash - Combining hydrogen generation technology with renewable and fossil-fuel power systems Fuel Cell Energy acquires Global Thermoelectric (August 2003) - $80 M - all stock (~$115-120 M at close given stock appreciation) - Developers of MCFC and SOFC technologies Source: RBC Capital Markets
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Confidential. Not for distribution. Page and Slide # 9 Back to Edison – Energy Security and Reliability The Economist, ABB.
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Confidential. Not for distribution. Page and Slide # 10 Fuel Cells and a Renewable Hydrogen Economy Graphic provided by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory
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Confidential. Not for distribution. Page and Slide # 11 Connecticut Clean Energy Fund – Fuel Cell Initiative Fuel Cell Installations – Commercialization – UTC PC25 St. Francis Hospital – power security to operating room – UTC PC25 South Windsor High School – baseload power emergency shelter – DFC300 Yale University – CHP application with high quality power needs – Demonstration – 10 kW SOFC using syngas from biomass gasification process – 5 kW SOFC using ethanol fuel – Performance Monitoring – working with EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) to identify system performance and risks associated with commercialization Investments – Proton Energy Systems – regenerative fuel cell systems – Acumentrics – manufacturer of SOFC – Ztek – business developing SOFC technology – GenCell – integrated fuel cell power generators – Sure Power – high reliable back-up power systems using fuel cells Outreach and Education – Annual Fuel Cell Investment Summit – RK Pachauri, IPCC Chairman – Public Fuel Cell Alliance – Connecticut Global Fuel Cell Center at the University of Connecticut
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