1. Economics of Research and Surveillance: Value of Information David Hutton

2. Motivation Policymakers may be interested in evaluating the health and economic costs and benefits of surveillance vs. other actions they may take Researchers want to determine the value of additional surveillance or scientific studies

3. Stylized Example 1: Surveillance Policy Decision Silent Circulation IPV Only Supplemental OPV Yes No $$$ $ $$

4. Stylized Example 1: Surveillance Policy Decision Silent Circulation IPV Only Supplemental OPV Yes No Yes No IPV Only Supplemental OPV Policy Decision Silent Circulation Policy Decision IPV Only Surveillance Supplemental OPV

5. Polio Data Collection Example Cost-effectiveness of sewage treatment monitoring –Policy Actions Monitor Sewage Supplemental OPV Other Policy Actions… –Outcomes: Costs –Monitoring –Vaccination –Disease Health Outcomes (monetized) Trust/Goodwill (monetized)

6. Stylized Example 2: Understanding Immunity Policy Decision Waning Immunity IPV Only Supplemental OPV Slow-Deep Fast-Shallow Silent Circulation Yes No

7. Stylized Example 2: Understanding Immunity Policy Decision Waning Immunity Enhanced Surveillance Slow-Deep Fast-Shallow Silent Circulation Yes No AFP Surveillance

8. Understanding Immunity What would we want to know? –Waning “Speed”? “Depth”? How would we collect that information? What would we do with that information?

9. Thank You Questions?