1. T-PARC Operations Meeting Tsukuba, Japan, April 7-8, 2008 Chun-Chieh Wu Department of Atmospheric Sciences National Taiwan University Recommendation from IWTC-VI, MWO (Nov. 2006) Working group report from T-PARC Planning meeting (Dec. 2007) DOTSTAR, collaborating with T-PARC, TH08, ProbeX, TCS- 08….. Outline:

2. Recommendation from IWTC-VI (San Jose, Costa Rica, Nov. 2006 (Russ Elsberry) Targeted observations experiments conducted in the environment of tropical cyclones in recent years have demonstrated value in significantly reducing track forecast errors when ingested in the assimilation process of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. IWTC-VI recognizes adaptive observations as a very promising way to improve tropical cyclone track prediction and therefore recommends that: Increased consideration being given to targeted observations. WMO should encourage expansion of aircraft targeting capabilities in various tropical cyclone basins. Research on targeted data should be extended to other observing systems …and data (e.g. satellite-derived soundings). Application of new concepts in predictability and data assimilation should be tested. Further research should be undertaken to define the best way to optimize targeted observations.

3. THORPEX-PARC Experiments and Collaborating Efforts NRL P-3 and HIAPER with the DLR Wind Lidar NRL P-3 and HIAPER with the DLR Wind Lidar Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY Winter storms reconnaissance and driftsonde JAMSTEC/IORG G 6 9 Understand and improve the TC predictability - Potential dream cases: Large spread bifurcation (Parsons et al. 2007) Dop pler lidar 20° off nadir dropsondes, u, v, t, rh, p DOTSTAR Falcon

4. T-PARC planning meeting, Kaui, Hawaii, Dec. 2007: Working Group: Targeted observations on TC tracks and recurvature Develop a concise description of your scientific objectives (bullet form and a few sentences) What platforms and/or instruments (both experimental and operational) are required for your research? How will these facilities be used (e.g., flight tracks, frequency of the deployment of sondes, launching of driftsondes in clusters, etc)? What are your plans for modeling and impact studies? Real time or retrospective? What needs do you have for operational and/or special products? How will you interact with the other components of T-PARC and with the collaborative experiments? Any other action items (particularly with time sensitive needs)? Chun-Chieh Wu (lead), Rolf Langland, Sharan Majumdar (rapporteurs), Sim Aberson, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Tetsuo Nakazawa, Hyun Mee Kim, Takemasa Miyoshi, Hee-Sang Lee, Martin Weissmann, Yeon-Hee Kim, Eun-Hee Jeon

5. Scientific Objectives (1) Test, evaluate and interpret targeting strategies – adjoint, ensemble, other; short-range, medium-range Evaluate relative impact of targeted observations – AMVs, driftsondes, lidar, dropsondes, radar Improve specification of observation and background error covariance information for data assimilation Diagnose dominant synoptic sensitivity from genesis through to ET or landfall

6. Scientific Objectives (2) Develop a conceptual model of TC track predictability What are the main differences in the above between the NW Pacific and Atlantic basins? Monsoon trough/gyre/depression Mid-latitude trough Strength of Pacific high Subtropical jet Binary Interactions (Fujiwhara) Design “operational” targeting procedures that can be used to improve TC predictions on a routine basis

7. Required Platforms and Instruments MTSAT-2 rapid-scan AMVs Driftsondes Dropwindsondes from Astra, Falcon, C-130, P-3 Aircraft lidar (Falcon, P-3) (not in real-time) Aircraft radar (P-3) (not in real-time) Flight-level data (all aircraft?) SFMR (surface wind speed, rain rate) Off-time rawinsondes Rawinsondes launched from ships (ProbeX) Land-based Doppler radar Hourly MTSAT-1R infrared Ocean buoy (for coupled models); ProbeX ARGO floats; moored buoy

8. Use of facilities; Decision-making considerations Under what scenarios do we make decisions on missions? TC is threatening land (Taiwan; Japan; Korea; China) Recurvature / track forecast bifurcation ET Coordination between TCS-08, DOTSTAR, TH08, ProbeX, ET Possibility of C-130 and P-3 in Okinawa Falcon: Mission selection team (will fly on average every 2nd day; 1 rest day per week). Example of Falcon deployment: Temporarily deploy to Okinawa, fly from Okinawa and land in Atsugi /Yokota/Tokyo, refuel, fly ET mission (to be discussed with ET group) Backup airport in case typhoon is at/near Okinawa? DOTSTAR will take off and land in Taiwan Plane-to-plane and plane-to-ground communication (satellite phone; XChat $10/min) Decisions on driftsondes and MTSAT observations

9. Real-time and retrospective plans for modeling and impact studies Driftsonde, TCS-08, DOTSTAR, ProbeX and TH08 dropwindsondes, off-time and ProbeX ship rawinsondes, ProbeX ARGO, MTSAT regular and rapid-scan (if available) data, C-130 flight-level and SFMR data sent to GTS and all operational models in real-time. Near real-time observation impact using NOGAPS adjoint and NASA/GEOS5 adjoint (using all available observations on GTS) Retrospective impact studies: MTSAT-2 winds (regular plus targeted r/s winds) Dropwindsonde data assimilated into GFS (NCEP) and GSM (JMA), NOGAPS (NRL), GDAPS and KWRF (KMA), GFS, NFS and WRF (CWB), WRF (NTU), ECMWF (?), WRF (Yonsei U) LIDAR wind and water vapour profiles

10. Needs for operational and/or special products Guidance for targeted observations (sensitivity calculations) SV: JMA, NOGAPS (NRL), MM5 (Yonsei), ECMWF ETKF: GFS+ECMWF+CMC+NOGAPS+UKMO (Miami), UKMO (UKMO) ADSSV (NTU) GFS Ensemble Variance (Aberson) Model diagnostics, probabilistic forecasts TC tracks in TIGGE Add higher levels (above 300hPa) to TIGGE ? [250, 200, 100, 50 hPa are available]

11. How will you interact with the other components of T- PARC and with the collaborative experiments? TCS08 (Pat Harr, Michael, Montgomery, Russ Elsberry, Peter Black) ET (Pat Harr, Chris Davis and Sarah Jones) TH08 (Tetsuo Nakazawa) DOTSTAR (Chun-Chieh Wu) ProbeX (Hee-Sang Lee, Seon Ki Park) Identify the common domain Genesis/Structure: TCS-08, DOTSTAR Recurvature and ET: DOTSTAR, ET, TH08, ProbeX

12. Targeted Observations for Improving Tropical Cyclone Predictability – DOTSTAR, TH08, PROBEX, TCS-08 and T-PARC Chun-Chieh Wu Dept. of Atmospheric Science, National Taiwan University Acknowledging collaborators in DOTSTAR and T-PARC: Po-Hsiung Lin, K.-S. Chou, Jan-Huey Chen, Shin-Guan Chen, TDRC, COOK (NTU), T.-C. Yeh, Daniel Wu (CWB), Sim Aberson (HRD), T. Nakazawa (JMA/MRI), M. Yamaguchi (JMA) Sharan Majumdar (U. of Miami), Melinda Peng, Simon Chang, C. Reynolds (NRL), R. Buizza (ECMWF), T. Li (IPRC), Y. Wang, S. Park (Ewha Univ.), H. M. Kim (Yonsei Univ.), H. S. Lee (KMA/METRI), D. Parsons (NCAR), M. Weissmann (DLR) Research Grants: NSC, CWB, ONR

13. DOTSTAR (Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the TAiwan Region) Astra jet 6 9 JMA, UKMO, KMA, EC (Wu et al. 2005, BAMS)

14. 6 9 FIR Oakland Manila Naha China Taiwan

15. DOTSTAR observations Up to present, 28 missions have been conducted in DOTSTAR for 24 typhoons, with 457 dropsondes deployed during the 147 flight hours. 22 typhoons affecting Taiwan 12 typhoons affecting (mainland) China 4 typhoons affecting Japan 2 typhoons affecting Korea 4 typhoons affecting Philippines Challenging science in DOTSTAR – Targeted observation. Wu et al. (2005 BAMS, 2007a WF)  providing useful reference data for CWB and other forecast centers, as well as positive impact to the track forecasts to models in the major operation centers (NCEP/GFS, FNMOC/NOGAPS, JMA/GSM) Where have all the typhoons gone?

16. (Wu et al. 2008, MWR)

17. http://typhoon.as.ntu.edu.tw/DOTSTAR/English/home2_english.htm Real time targeted observation guidance For DOTSTAR, TH08, PROBEX, TCS-08, and T-PARC

18. DOTSTAR only Typhoon Wipha, 1200 UTC, 17 September Dry run for DOTSTAR + TH08 5.5 flight hrs. 16 drops 16 + 14 = 30 drops 5.5 + 4.5 = 10 flight hrs. JMA moist SV Dry run for DOTSTAR + TH08

19. Standard Operation Procedure (SOP) for DOTSTAR in 2008 TY Watching ( before -72 h) Route design (-72 ~ -48 h) Crews check Software check Route revision (-48 ~ -24 h) Flight operation Data transfer (-3 ~ +3 h) Data archive CWB Fore. Div. NTU/ Wu-Lin NPS/Harr MRI/Nakazawa AIDC/Tsao NTU/Wu- Lin-Chou NRL/ Reynolds HRD/Aberson UM/Majumdar JMA/Ymaguchi NTU/Wu YSU/Kim NTUAIDC CWB Fore. Div. CWB Fore. Div. CWB Info. Div. NCEP/GFS FNMOC/NOGAPS JTWC JMA/GSM KMA…. NTU team Crews NTU sensitivity guidance operational forecasts data to GTS NPS/Harr MRI/Nakazawa

20. Standard Operation Procedure (SOP) for DOTSTAR in 2008 Typhoon watching NCEP, JMA, FNMOC,ECMWF,CWB (120~144hrs) Typhoon developing and track JTWC, JMA, CWB (72~120 hrs) G-100 flight route planning (1)Around TC (300~400km radius) (2)sensitivity regions sensitivity guidance: DLM, ETKF, singular vector, ADSSV Decision Making Crews Call NTU/AIDC Flight plan AIDC, HRD, CWB Crews, TCS-08, TH09, T-PARC FTP modem check Checklist check Insurance check CWB WINS check AVAPS check Satellite phone check Mission briefing Mission debriefing D-2 ~ D-1 D0/ before takeoff On-board data QC Showup in CWB/WINS D -7 ~ D-3 D -3 ~ D-2 D-1 D0/ in air Data archive D0/ landing D +1 Coordinated with T- PARC, TCS-08, TH08, ProbeX Coordinated with T- PARC, TCS-08, TH08 ? ?

21. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 9 Major targeted areas: 1.Surrounding the storm 2.Other high sensitivity areas 3.Capability of the joint flights

22. Flight time: 6h00m Flight time: 4h15m TC Center: 20N, 125E Dream Case 1: 18 drops (Taiwan); 13 drops (Japan)

23. Flight time: 5h48m Flight time: 4h14m TC Center: 22.5N, 125E Dream Case 2: 17 drops (Taiwan); 13 drops (Japan)

24. Flight time: 5h57m Flight time: 4h16m TC Center: 20N, 127.5E Dream Case 3: 19 drops (Taiwan); 13 drops (Japan)

25. Flight time: 5h55m Flight time: 4h16m TC Center: 22.5N, 127.5E Dream Case 4: 15 drops (Taiwan); 15 drops (Japan)

26. Flight time: 6h06m Flight time: 4h16m TC Center: 20N, 130E Dream Case 5: 18 drops (Taiwan); 13 drops (Japan)

27. Flight time: 6h00m Flight time: 4h19m TC Center: 22.5N, 130E Dream Case 6: 18 drops (Taiwan); 15 drops (Japan)

28. Flight time: 5h58m Flight time: 4h15m TC Center: 20N, 132.5E Dream Case 7: 19 drops (Taiwan); 14 drops (Japan)

29. Flight time: 5h50m Flight time: 4h00m TC Center: 22.5N, 132.5E Dream Case 8: 18 drops (Taiwan); 12 drops (Japan)

30. Flight time: 5h56m Flight time: 4h16m TC Center: 25N, 132.5E Dream Case 9: 18 drops (Taiwan); 14 drops (Japan)

31. Flight time: 6h05m Flight time: 4h08m TC Center: 22.5N, 135E Dream Case 10: 17 drops (Taiwan); 13 drops (Japan)

32. Issues for discussions Decision and coordination for joint operations Flight strategies Priorities of the targets Sensitivity products (websites?) Communication for discussions Data sharing and archives Website? Post analyses and researches