1. Strategies for Optimizing Scientific Productivity for Future Observatories: A “Flat World” for Astronomical Research

2. Discussion Topics Science topics that the 8-10 m telescopes will be able to address in the E-ELT era. Will the 8-10m telescopes be mere support telescopes or will they be able to reserve a scientific niche? Will the ELTs be latest machines we astronomers will ever be able to build for economic or technical reason? If so, should the role of the 8-10 m telescopes be different from what it is envisaged now? Will observational astronomers become fully and forever detached from the telescopes, as they increase in complexity and the pressure for its use makes them unreachable?

3. Observatory Productivity:1990’s C.R. Benn, S.F. Sanchez, Astro-ph, 17 October, 2000

4. “The strong showing by 1-m and 2-m telescopes in the 1990s augurs well for the continued scientific impact of 4-m telescopes in the era of 8-m telescopes.”

5. Observatory Productivity:2000’s J.P. Madrid, D. Macchetto, Astro-ph, 28 January, 2009

6. Three Strategies for Scientific Productivity Type I—Full Service: Well resourced observatory providing a wide range of observing capabilities and services. Type II—Vertically Integrated: optimized place in the “food chain”, synergy and value added with other major astronomical facilities Type III—Laterally integrated: strategic relationships with other observatories in its class

7. Type I: Full Service Space Telescope Science Institute –$50M/yr operating budget –~400 staff, strong user support –$20 M/yr grant support – $3M/yr outreach budget –Wide range of instrumentation –Data pipelines, robust data archive VLT, Subaru, others ?NOAO: no longer a viable strategy after ~2000

8. Type II: Vertically Integrated Value Added Synergy With Major Observatories Blanco 4m identification of Type I Supernovae/HST and other follow up Keck AO synergy with HST: ir and vis imagery at same spatial scales.

9. Type II: Vertically Integrated Value Added Synergy With Major Observatories ?NOAO envisioned as “gateway to Gemini” ?Gemini as part of the “Decade of Infrared” Triad

10. Type III: Laterally Integrated Strategic Relationships with Other Comparable Observatories Gemini time exchange with Subaru, and Keck NOAO: Organizational focus on U.S. telescopes working as a “system” –Telescope System Instrumentation Program (TSIP) provides instrumentation and access for 6-10 m telescopes –Renewing Small Telescopes for Astronomical Research (ReSTAR) improves access and performance for small telescopes

11. ReSTAR Concern within US that small telescope access would be sacrificed in era of 30 m class telescopes Effort to scientifically link 1-6 m telescopes  8-30 m telescopes However, much stronger role identified in further optimizing 1-6 m science

12. Major ReSTAR Science Themes Synoptic and time-critical observations of rapidly moving solar system objects such as comets and asteroids. In the rapidly growing field of exo-planet studies, these telescopes are well-suited time domain studies of exo-planets transiting in front of their parent stars and for follow up of microlensing events. Studies for Star forming regions and of the inter-stellar medium via wide field imaging in both broad and narrow-band filters. Stellar interferometry and astero-seismology for detailed two and three dimensional studies of individual stars. Synoptic imaging and spectroscopic studies of variable stars and stellar clusters. Synoptic photometric and spectroscopic observations of extra-galacitc compact objects to study the physics of accretion disks. Wide field surveys for medium to high redshift galaxies to study large scale structure in the Universe (Big-Boss, Dark Energy Survey, etc.

13. Strategies for the Future: A Flat World

14. A Flat World In economics: the convergence of technology and social factors that allowed India, China, etc. to become part of the global supply chain for services and manufacturing, creating an explosion of wealth in the middle class.

15. A Flat World In economics: the convergence of technology and social factors allowed the creation of a global, web-enabled playing field that allows for multiple forms of collaboration – the sharing of knowledge and work – in real time, without regard to geography, distance, or in the near future, even language.

16. A Flat World In economics: the convergence of technology and social factors allowed the creation of a global, web-enabled playing field that allows for multiple forms of collaboration – the sharing of knowledge and work – in real time, without regard to geography, distance, or in the near future, even language. In astronomy : the convergence of technology, economics and sociology that creates a new (level) playing field in which competitiveness is no longer dominated by aperture size alone.

17. Factor 1 Technology Advances in Detectors + Advances in Information Technology

18. Growth in CCDs vs. Glass

19. Current Data Holdings in US US Archives2010 Holdings TB GROWTH RATE TB/yr STScI11365 Goddard (HEASARC)7012 Chandra Science Center141.5 Spitzer Science Center266 NASA/IPAC (IRSA)50 NASA/IPAC (NED)50.2 SAO Astrophysics Data Sys100.5 TOTAL SPACE288135.2 NOAO4710 NRAO7050 GEMINI70.9 KECK41.5 SMA40.6 Arecibo4055 Sloan Digital Sky Survey88-- TOTAL GROUND260118

20. The Result-- High Impact Observatories SDSS: 2,500 publications, 2/3rds by authors not part of Sloan the consortium HST: 700 publications per year, ½ of which are from archival data. 1,400 on HDF to date. CFHT: Mega Cam Super Nova Legacy Survey NOAO: to undertake –Dark Energy Survey on Blanco: large CCD mosaic camera –possibly BigBOSS on Mayall: baryon acoustic oscillation survey using a 4000 fiber spectrograph

21. Factor 2 Economics Shifting Investment Strategy Instruments vs. Telescope

22. Characteristic Instrument Costs

23. Cost of Present and Future Instruments World-wide From Simons et. al. Survey OpticalInfrared Current$400,000$3,750,000 Future$6,600,000$5,000,000

24. Factor 3 Sociology The Vanishing Lone Astronomer

25. Growth in Research Teams Author Count for top 100 papers

26. Summary Factors that will Flatten the Astronomical Landscape A data enabled research capability fueled by rapid technology advances which will democratize access to information; Shifting telescope economics that focus new investment strategies, and An evolving trend towards larger highly multiplexed research teams that cross institutional and national lines

27. Observing Programs In A Flat World

28. Backup

29. Current Landscape for US Astronomy Global financial crisis focused attention on the need to invest in science and technology, including astronomy. US Decadal Survey under way. Major issues: –Revalidating scientific priority of 30 m class telescope, defining path forward on one or two such telescopes –Committing to a new start for Large Survey Telescope –Establishing Gemini next generation instruments –Providing access to “system” of telescopes

30. Citation Rate vs. Author Count

31. Opportunity Cost per “Night”

32. Evolution in Information Technology Aided human eye –Large information content, low recording rate Photographic Plate –Large information content (1 MB/cm2, ~3 GB/plate) – Moderate recording rate (QE ~2-4%) –Analysis and distribution limited 2-d photon counting arrays (4kx4k) –Large information content (30 – 300 MB) –High recording rate (high QE) –Analysis can be automated –Distribution widespread (tape, CD, internet) 3-d energy resolving arrays –Enormous information content & data rates –12k x 12k x 100(l) x 2 Bytes: 100 GB

33. Paradigm Shift In Telescope Economics For the 100-inch on Mt Wilson the least expensive item was the photographic plate (guided by an inexpensive astronomer) Over time the cost of the instrument has slowly risen (e.g. HETDEX on HET, ODI on WIYN) The cost of the telescope is negligible in highly multiplexed projects (e.g. SDSS) Future suggests highly multiplexed, highly focused, highly expensive instruments.

34. Contributing Factors Scientific Drivers: –Ultra wide-field surveys which need Giga pixel CCD mosaic focal planes in the visible –Fundamental cosmological questions require the discovery and study of large numbers of very distant objects shifted into the IR. –Dust obscured regions at high spatial resolution Technical Drivers: –High cost of IR detectors (available only from industry) –High cost of AO

35. Synergy with HST

36. Cosmic Discovery Martin Harwit, 1981