1. Lecture 8 US Trade Policies and Institutions Econ 340

2. News Feb 2-8 Obama plans tax on US profits held overseas -- WP: 2/2 | FT: 2/2 | CTools2/2 CTools –Obama is proposing to levy a $238 billion one-off tax on overseas cash holdings of US corporations. –Cash is held abroad because profits would be taxed when brought back to US. This tax will be less that half of that. –He will also propose a tax on foreign earnings to reduce that incentive in the future. US auto exports up and oil imports down -- WSJ: 2/6 | Proquest | WSJ: 2/6 | Proquest2/6Proquest2/6Proquest –US auto exports rose to a record high in 2014, for 3rd year in a row. Many of these are made by non-US companies at factories in the US. –US oil imports fell for 2014, reducing their share of the US trade deficit to less than 20%, compared to 40% five years ago. –Other imports rose, however, and the US trade deficit remained high. China's trade surplus hit a record high in January, even as exports fell -- FT: ? | CTools?CTools –China's exports were 3.3% less in January than a year earlier, but imports were down 19.9%. –Both results were unexpected, and led to a trade surplus of a record $60 billion. –China's manufacturing sector shrank, but the main reason for this change was the fall in the prices of imported commodities, especially coal and oil. Oil imports fell only 0.6% by volume but 41.8% by value. Lecture 7: Reasons2

3. News Feb 2-8 Obama plans tax on US profits held overseas –Obama is proposing to levy a $238 billion one-off tax on overseas cash holdings of US corporations. –Cash is held abroad because profits would be taxed when brought back to US. This tax will be less that half of that. –He will also propose a tax on foreign earnings to reduce that incentive in the future. Lecture 7: Reasons3

4. News Feb 2-8 US auto exports up and oil imports down –US auto exports rose to a record high in 2014, for 3rd year in a row. Many of these are made by non-US companies at factories in the US. –US oil imports fell for 2014, reducing their share of the US trade deficit to less than 20%, compared to 40% five years ago. –Other imports rose, however, and the US trade deficit remained high. Lecture 7: Reasons4

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6. News Feb 2-8 China's trade surplus hit a record high in January, even as exports fell –China's exports were 3.3% less in January than a year earlier, but imports were down 19.9%. –Both results were unexpected, and led to a trade surplus of a record $60 billion. –China's manufacturing sector shrank, but the main reason for this change was the fall in the prices of imported commodities, especially coal and oil. Oil imports fell only 0.6% by volume but 41.8% by value. Lecture 7: Reasons6

7. Lecture 8: US7 Outline: US Trade Policies and Institutions Parts of the US Government that Handle Trade Main Features of US Trade Policies –Tariffs, Quotas, VERs –Escape Clause –Unfair Trade Laws –Trade Adjustment Assistance –Fast Track –GSP Dumping and Anti-Dumping Why the US Protects Trends in US Trade Policy International Organizations

8. Lecture 8: US8 US Trade Institutions Why US? –That’s where we are –US is large and therefore important for the world –Many of the policies and institutions that US uses are also used by many others We’ll see that as we go through them

9. Lecture 8: US9 US Trade Institutions US does NOT have a “ministry” or “department” of international trade Most other countries do; e.g. … –Canada: Department of International Trade –Japan: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) (Used to be MITI) –EU: Directorate General Trade Trade Commissioner: Cecilia Malmstrom since Nov 2014

10. Lecture 8: US10 US Trade Institutions In US, responsibility for trade issues is spread over many entities –Congress –USTR –Commerce Department –US International Trade Commission –Export-Import Bank –and several others Obama said several years ago that he seeks to consolidate many of these in a single agency –Not mentioned since then

11. Lecture 8: US11 US Trade Institutions USTR = United States Trade Representative –Handles negotiations on trade issues with Other governments WTO –Drafts trade legislation for Congress –Does NOT set or implement trade policies

12. Lecture 8: US12 US Trade Institutions The current USTR is Michael Froman Cabinet-level official of US government

13. Lecture 8: US13 US Trade Institutions Congress –Sets tariffs and other trade policies (thus approves trade agreements) –Two committees are responsible House: Ways and Means Senate: Finance –Why these? Because trade policy was originally about collecting revenue

14. Lecture 8: US14 US Trade Institutions Administrative Agencies –ITA = International Trade Administration Part of Department of Commerce Main Function: Determines “fairness” in unfair trade cases –Are imports “dumped”? –Are they “subsidized”? Orientation of ITA: very much favors US businesses

15. Lecture 8: US15 US Trade Institutions Administrative Agencies –ITC = USITC = United States International Trade Commission Independent agency –Commissioners (6) are nominated by President and confirmed by Senate –After that they are on their own Main Function: To determine “injury” in cases of –Anti-Dumping –Countervailing duties (subsidies) –Safeguards (a.k.a., Escape Clause)

16. Lecture 8: US16 Outline: US Trade Policies and Institutions Parts of the US Government that Handle Trade Main Features of US Trade Policies –Tariffs, Quotas, VERs –Escape Clause –Unfair Trade Laws –Trade Adjustment Assistance –Fast Track –GSP Dumping and Anti-Dumping Why the US Protects Trends in US Trade Policy International Organizations

17. Lecture 8: US17 Main Features of US Trade Policies Tariffs, quotas, etc. –We have them –Average US tariff is about as low as any major country –We still have high tariffs on some products Textiles, apparel Agriculture –Quotas are still common in agriculture –VERs: no longer

18. Lecture 8: US18 Main Features of US Trade Policies US tariff history: 1810-1920 Today

19. Lecture 8: US19 Main Features of US Trade Policies US tariff history: 1865-1960 Today Average tariff

20. 20 Main Features of US Trade Policies US tariff history: 1865-1960 –Why the decline? Partly due to revenues from income tax:

21. Lecture 8: US21 Main Features of US Trade Policies US tariff history: 1865-1960 Today Average tariff Trade Restrictiveness (2 measures)

22. Aside on “Trade Restrictiveness Index” (TRI) –Defined as the level of a uniform ad valorem tariff that would have the same overall effects as the actual tariff structure –Why TRI > Average Tariff Tariffs are very unequal across products Recall that dead-weight-loss rises with square of tariff E.g.: Tariffs (0, 20) will cause twice the loss of (10, 10) Lecture 8: US22 Main Features of US Trade Policies

23. Lecture 8: US23 Outline: US Trade Policies and Institutions Parts of the US Government that Handle Trade Main Features of US Trade Policies –Tariffs, Quotas, VERs –Escape Clause –Unfair Trade Laws –Trade Adjustment Assistance –Fast Track –GSP Dumping and Anti-Dumping Why the US Protects Trends in US Trade Policy International Organizations

24. Lecture 8: US24 Main Features of US Trade Policies Escape Clause = Section 201 –Called “Safeguards” in WTO –Permits temporary protection from injurious imports Does NOT allege that the imports are “unfair” –Eligibility is decided by USITC alone Injury (must be serious) Causation (must be due to imports) –Implemented by President, who may say NO.

25. Lecture 8: US25 Main Features of US Trade Policies Escape Clause –Important recent case: Steel Bush Administration imposed safeguard tariffs on imported steel in March 2002 for 3 years Other countries filed case against US in WTO WTO ruled against US (import surge had abated well before we imposed tariffs) US removed tariffs in December 2003

26. Lecture 8: US26 Main Features of US Trade Policies Escape Clause –Important recent case: Tires Obama Administration imposed safeguards tariffs on imported tires from China in September 2009: 35% 1 st yr, 30% 2 nd yr, 25% 3 rd yr Reason: imports had tripled over 5 yrs; 5000 jobs lost Requested by union, not by firms. Firms are themselves producing in China. Obama had option of saying No

27. Lecture 8: US27 Outline: US Trade Policies and Institutions Parts of the US Government that Handle Trade Main Features of US Trade Policies –Tariffs, Quotas, VERs –Escape Clause –Unfair Trade Laws –Trade Adjustment Assistance –Fast Track –GSP Dumping and Anti-Dumping Why the US Protects Trends in US Trade Policy International Organizations

28. Lecture 8: US28 Main Features of US Trade Policies Unfair Trade Laws –Permit protection (not temporary) from “unfair” imports Must also be injurious, but less so than for escape clause (“material injury”) “Unfair” if –Subsidized by foreign government –“Dumped”, i.e., priced too low by firm (more on this below)

29. Lecture 8: US29 Main Features of US Trade Policies Unfair Trade Laws –Fairness decided by ITA –Injury decided by USITC –President is NOT permitted to say NO

30. Lecture 8: US30 Outline: US Trade Policies and Institutions Parts of the US Government that Handle Trade Main Features of US Trade Policies –Tariffs, Quotas, VERs –Escape Clause –Unfair Trade Laws –Trade Adjustment Assistance –Fast Track –GSP Dumping and Anti-Dumping Why the US Protects Trends in US Trade Policy International Organizations

31. Lecture 8: US31 Main Features of US Trade Policies Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) –Provides temporary help (not tariff protection) for firms and workers hurt by imports –Gives workers access to income support, relocation allowances, job search allowances, health coverage tax credit, and occupational training –As of 2002, Alternative Trade Adjustment Assistance (ATAA) also provides limited “wage insurance” for trade-displaced older workers

32. Lecture 8: US32 Aside: Wage Insurance Except for ATAA, US does NOT have this Many economists recommend it –See article by Roth Wage Insurance would pay workers when they take a new job at a lower wage –Pays a specified fraction of the fall in wage –For limited time Advantages over TAA –Encourages both workers and firms to re-employ workers –Need not (in principle) be limited to workers displaced by trade

33. Lecture 8: US33 Outline: US Trade Policies and Institutions Parts of the US Government that Handle Trade Main Features of US Trade Policies –Tariffs, Quotas, VERs –Escape Clause –Unfair Trade Laws –Trade Adjustment Assistance –Fast Track –GSP Dumping and Anti-Dumping Why the US Protects Trends in US Trade Policy International Organizations

34. Lecture 8: US34 Main Features of US Trade Policies Fast Track –Now officially called Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) –Procedure, imposed by Congress on itself, requiring it to Consider trade legislation without amendment

35. Lecture 8: US35 Main Features of US Trade Policies Fast Track –Reason: President (via USTR) must negotiate deals with other countries, then take them to Congress for approval Deals would collapse if Congress could change them after they were signed With Fast Track, Congress can vote no, but not make changes

36. Lecture 8: US36 Main Features of US Trade Policies Fast Track –History Presidents had Fast Track without controversy 1974-94 President Clinton sought renewal but failed President G W Bush got it, renamed TPA: –Granted in 2002, to July 1 2005 –Extended to July 1 2007 –Expired July 1 2007

37. Lecture 8: US37 Main Features of US Trade Policies Fast Track –Current status: US does not have it now –In December 2013, leaders of the committees in Congress agreed on draft of Fast Track (see Paletta & Hughes) Max Baucus (D, Mont.), Chair of Senate Finance Com. Dave Camp (R, Mich), Chair of House Ways & Means Oran Hatch (R, Utah)

38. Lecture 8: US38 Main Features of US Trade Policies Fast Track –Complication: Concerns about currencies Draft includes mention of currency issues –Important Democrats oppose: Harry Reid, was Majority Leader of Senate –New Republican majority likely to be more favorable

39. Lecture 8: US39 Main Features of US Trade Policies Fast Track –Obama is now negotiating two trade agreements for which Fast Track is probably necessary. We’ll discuss both more later. TPP = Trans-Pacific Partnership –With 11 countries on Pacific TTIP = Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership –With European Union –If he succeeds, he’ll need fast track to get it through Congress

40. Lecture 8: US40 Outline: US Trade Policies and Institutions Parts of the US Government that Handle Trade Main Features of US Trade Policies –Tariffs, Quotas, VERs –Escape Clause –Unfair Trade Laws –Trade Adjustment Assistance –Fast Track –GSP Dumping and Anti-Dumping Why the US Protects Trends in US Trade Policy International Organizations

41. Lecture 8: US41 Main Features of US Trade Policies GSP = Generalized System of Preferences –Charge lower tariffs on some exports from some developing countries than we charge other countries –Other developed countries do this too (permitted by WTO) –Glassman, “Illogical Special Trade Deals,” says we should Deny GSP status to countries that act against US interests –Are uncooperative in trade negotiations –Fail to enforce US intellectual property rights (patents, copyrights) –Default on loans Change US law to add flexibility in future

42. Lecture 8: US42 Outline: US Trade Policies and Institutions Parts of the US Government that Handle Trade Main Features of US Trade Policies –Tariffs, Quotas, VERs –Escape Clause –Unfair Trade Laws –Trade Adjustment Assistance –Fast Track –GSP Dumping and Anti-Dumping Why the US Protects Trends in US Trade Policy International Organizations

43. Lecture 8: US43 Dumping and Anti-Dumping Anti-Dumping (AD) is the most frequently used trade policy today, –by US –and increasingly also by other countries Dumping Defined: Selling an export at a price below the “fair price” “Fair price” can be either –Domestic price in exporting country, or –Cost

44. Lecture 8: US44 Dumping and Anti-Dumping Is dumping harmful? –Yes, to those who compete with it But that is true of any competition Has nothing to do with the price being “unfair” –Yes to importing country, if dumping is “predatory” Intended to drive out all competitors, AND then to raise price to monopoly level –Otherwise No: Importing country gains from low-priced imports, whether “unfair” or not

45. Lecture 8: US45 Dumping and Anti-Dumping S D PW1PW1 P PW0PW0 Q QS0QS0 QS1QS1 QD1QD1 QD0QD0 a b c d Effects on Welfare Suppliers lose Demanders gain Country gains +(b+c+d) Dumping lowers price

46. Lecture 8: US46 Dumping and Anti-Dumping Is dumping ever predatory? –Probably never –Remember that “predatory” requires not just low price now, but also high (monopoly) price later –Most AD cases are against multiple firms and countries (even if domestic competitors disappear, monopoly pricing is unlikely) –AD statute says nothing about showing predatory behavior or intent –Old (1916) US law does require predation, but it was ruled WTO-illegal for other reasons (charging triple damages).

47. Lecture 8: US47 Dumping and Anti-Dumping Reasons for dumping (why would foreign firms ever sell exports at a low price?) –Protected home market Tariff at home permits a high price there Firms are price discriminating (against their own country) –Market slump: When demand is temporarily low, pricing below average cost (but not below marginal cost) is normal behavior (recall from Econ 101) –Gain a foothold in a new market: Setting price low, even below marginal cost, may make sense if Costs are falling (with output over time) Demand is rising (e.g., with consumers’ experience over time)

48. Lecture 8: US48 Outline: US Trade Policies and Institutions Parts of the US Government that Handle Trade Main Features of US Trade Policies –Tariffs, Quotas, VERs –Escape Clause –Unfair Trade Laws –Trade Adjustment Assistance –Fast Track –GSP Dumping and Anti-Dumping Why the US Protects Trends in US Trade Policy International Organizations

49. Lecture 8: US49 Why the US Protects NOT for most of the reasons we talked about earlier (revenue, optimal tariff, defense, etc.) We use protection to benefit industries, not the whole country Politicians care most about producers, not consumers. But producers include both –Firms –Workers –Farmers Use of AD (& CVD, Safeguards) is for this reason too

50. Lecture 8: US50 Outline: US Trade Policies and Institutions Parts of the US Government that Handle Trade Main Features of US Trade Policies –Tariffs, Quotas, VERs –Escape Clause –Unfair Trade Laws –Trade Adjustment Assistance –Fast Track –GSP Dumping and Anti-Dumping Why the US Protects Trends in US Trade Policy International Organizations

51. Lecture 8: US51 Trends in US Trade Policy Is US a “Free Trader”? –Yes? We are known for that, ever since World War II Our trade barriers are lower, slightly, than most other industrialized countries And they were lower sooner – we led the way after WWII

52. Lecture 8: US52 Trends in US Trade Policy Is US a “Free Trader”? –No? Our barriers are far from zero Even under Reagan, US increased trade barriers in many sectors Clinton argued for free trade, but also for “industrial policies” favoring sectors Bush passed trade agreements, but also added barriers Obama: ?

53. Lecture 8: US53 Trends in US Trade Policy Is Obama a “Free Trader”? –Not really As candidate he objected to aspects of NAFTA As president he put safeguards tariffs on tires and has taken other actions against China His rhetoric in the 2012 campaign was often critical of trade

54. Lecture 8: US54 Trends in US Trade Policy Is Obama a “Free Trader”? –But… He renegotiated FTAs with S. Korea, Colombia and Panama, and got them approved in Congress October 2011. He’s trying to double US exports in 5 years. He’s trying to negotiate TPP and TTIP.

55. Lecture 8: US55 Trends in US Trade Policy Notable US Trade Barriers –Textiles and Apparel: high tariffs (no longer quotas) –Some agriculture: high tariffs, quotas, subsidies Sugar Peanuts Cotton Dairy –VERs (no longer) Autos Steel –Anti-dumping Steel (many cases)

56. Lecture 8: US56 Next Time World Trade Arrangements and the WTO –What is it, and where did it come from? –What does it do? –What’s happening now?

57. Lecture 8: US57 Outline: US Trade Policies and Institutions Parts of the US Government that Handle Trade Main Features of US Trade Policies –Tariffs, Quotas, VERs –Escape Clause –Unfair Trade Laws –Trade Adjustment Assistance –Fast Track –GSP Dumping and Anti-Dumping Why the US Protects Trends in US Trade Policy International Organizations

58. Lecture 9: WTO58 International Organizations International Organizations Related to Trade –WTO = World Trade Organization Formerly GATT = General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade More on this in next lecture

59. Lecture 9: WTO59 International Organizations International Organizations Related to Trade –OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Group of mostly rich countries –Collects data –Discusses reforms 34 members –Including Mexico, Korea, Czech Rep., Poland –Most recent: Estonia, added 9 December 2010

60. Lecture 9: WTO60 International Organizations International Organizations Related to Trade –EU = European Union Group of 28 countries, among which there is free flow of –Goods –Capital –Labor (but not yet including those who joined most recently) Added 10 countries Jan 1, 2004 Added Romania and Bulgaria on Jan 1, 2007 Added Croatia July 1, 2013

61. Lecture 9: WTO61 Note who is missing: –Switzerland –Norway –Former Yugoslavia except Slovenia EU-15 10 added 2004 New and Future?

62. Lecture 8: US62

63. Lecture 9: WTO63 International Organizations International Organizations Related to Trade –NAFTA = North American Free Trade Agreement Group of 3 countries, US, Canada, Mexico that have –Zero tariffs on each other’s exports –Rules to facilitate investment, intellectual property, etc.

64. Lecture 9: WTO64 International Organizations United Nations (UN) Organizations –UNCTAD = UN Conference for Trade and Development Voices views of developing countries –ILO = International Labor Organization Promotes labor standards and rights Has no authority to limit trade –WIPO = World Intellectual Property Organization Promotes use and protection of intellectual property (Copyrights, Trademarks, Patents) Also has no authority to limit trade

65. Lecture 9: WTO65 International Organizations Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs) –Far too many to list – here are a few Fraser Institute Oxfam International Third World Network Worldgrowth.org –NGOs have been increasingly active in trying to influence trade policies and negotiations

66. Lecture 8: US66 Next Time World Trade Arrangements and the WTO –What is it, and where did it come from? –What does it do? –What’s happening now?