1. 1. Federal Fire Policy 2. Strategic Risk Assessment 3. Regional Forester Engagement 1 2 3

2. Federal Fire Policy  No Change In Policy  Guidelines Changed In 2009  Terminology Changed 2010+  Emphasis Moved From Cost To Risk Mgt 1

3. Guidelines For 2009 + 1. On All Wildfires, Protection Of Life & Property Must Be An Objective. 2. Manage Fires To Achieve LRMP Objectives. 3. Implementation Guidance Documented In FMP 4. Both Resource Benefit & Protection Objectives Are Allowed On The Same Fire; As Directed In 2 & Guided By 3 5. Person Caused Fire Can Not Have Benefit Objectives 1 LRMP = Land & Resource Mgt Plan FMP = Fire Mgt Plan

4. Updated Terminology for 2010+ Two Kinds Of Fire: Wildfire & Prescribed Fire Wildland Fire Use – Obsolete Fire Use Fires -- Obsolete Resource Benefit Fires -- Obsolete Suppression Fires – Obsolete Appropriate Mgt Response – Obsolete NWCG Guidance Supported By Deputy Chief Direction 1 NWCG = National Wildfire Coordinating Group

5. RM Principles From The FS Doctrine  No Resource Or Facility Is Worth The Loss Of Human Life  The Suppression Environment Is Complex And Possesses Inherent Hazards That Can, Even With Reasonable Mitigation, Result In Harm To Fire Fighters Engaged In Fire Suppression Operations.  Forest Service Is Committed To Aggressively Managing Risk 2

6. New Lexicon Being Used For Risk Based Decisions  Prospect ~ Alternatives  Fire Fighter Exposure Budget -- Hour/Days  Course Of Action – Strategy To Be Implemented 2

7. 1 Three Components of A Safe And Productive Unit 2 Fair or Just Reporting Learning Flexible Respect feedback Be willing to share concerns Be a student Be a student Rules don’t and can’t cover every situation Safety Culture  Watch for Weak Signals of Failure  Suspicious of Simple Interpretations  Focus on Ongoing Operations  Capacity for Flex and Bounce Back  Locate and Defer to Expertise Principles of an HRO : 3 Version # 3 (HRO = Highly Reliable Organization ) Risk Mgt 2

8. During an incident……. From the Agency Administrator Perspective Regional Forester Representative Team 2

9. What Is Successful Mgt of Risk? Safely Managing Inherent Risks In A Manner That Meets Reasonable Objectives With Least Exposure To Incident Responders. 2

10. Risk Probability And Severity Of An Undesirable Outcome Linked To Hazards. HazardsUndesirable Outcome 2

11. Exposure Exposing Fire Fighters To Hazards That May Result In Injury Or Possibly Death Aviation Fire Fighters Public 2 Be Cognizant Of Moving Risk To Private Sector

12. Three Levels of Risk Management Unit IMT Operational 2 Strategic Deliberate Time Critical TimeDataDecision Space Decision (COA) COA = Course Of Action Strategic Risk Assessment

13. Outline For Strategic Risk Assessment 1.Risk Assessment 2.Risk Analysis 3.Risk Communication 4.Risk Sharing Risk Decision (COA) Periodic Assessment 110Corporate Scale 2 See Template Handout Preseason Work COA = Course Of Action

14. Risk Assessment  What Values Are At Risk?  What Is The Likelihood Of Harm?  What Are The Consequences Of Harm?  What Are The Potential Benefits?  Etc 2 RAVAR – Rapid Assessment Values At Risk Natural Resources FSPro – Fire Spread Probability RERAP – Rare Event Risk Assessment Process

15. Risk Analysis  What Are Your Objectives?  What Alt Offers The Best Tradeoffs?  How Much FF Exposure Will Be Required?  What Are The Tradeoffs Of FF Exposure, Impacts to the Public, Political Fallout, and Impacts to Natural Resource? Prospect 1 PROSPECT INPUT COSTEXPOSURE Resource Type A: # of Resource Units B: Persons Per Resource Unit C: Days Needed Rate Per Day Total RateExp Hrs/Ss/DayExp Hrs/Day Total Person- Hours Exposure (Unadjusted) Ω Total Person- Hours Exposure (Adjusted) T1 Crews122012 $ 7,447 $ 1,072,3681416840,3201.352,416 T2 IA Crews222010 $ 8,155 $ 1,794,1001414061,6001.061,600 T2 Crews 20 $ 8,155 $ -14001.10 Fellers 2 $ 1,465 $ -14001.00 Engines 3 $ 1,210 $ -14001.00 Dozers 1 $ 1,456 $ -14001.10 Water Tender(s) 1 $ 1,440 $ -14001.10 Fixed Wing A/C 2 $ 2,000 $ -6001.00 Type 1 Helicopters 1 $ 4,000 $ -6001.10 Type 2 Helicopters 1 $ 1,773 $ -6001.00 Type 3 Helicopters 1 $ 1,008 $ -6001.00 Overhead (line) $ 826 $ -14001.00 Overhead (camp) $ 826 $ -14001.00 Other: ______________ $ -14001.00 Totals347222 $ 2,866,468 308101,920 114,016 Prospect 1 Totals: Total Responder Exposure (Adjusted): Hours114,016 Total Estimated Cost: $ 2,866,468 2 FF = Fire Fighter

16. Risk Communication  Have Stakeholders Been Consulted?  Has Risk Assessment & Analysis Been Shared?  Are Stakeholder’s Reactions Documented? Understanding Degree Of Acceptance Degree Of Support Reactions Concerns 2

17. Risk Sharing  Dialogue Draft Decision With Oversight Officials Risk Assessment Risk Analysis Risk Communication  Example, Engagement with: Regional Forester Political 2

18. Risk Decision  Using Results From: 1. Risk Assessment 2. Risk Analysis 3. Risk Communication 4. Risk Sharing  Document The Formal Risk Decision: Objectives: State Overall Objectives for Managing Wildfire Decision: Course Of Action To Implement Desirable Prospect Rationale: Best Protects Life and Property Minimizes FF Exposure Required To Meet Objectives Reasonably Safe For FF To Implement Periodic Assessment: Document Your Intentions To Monitor. 2 WFDSS = WildFire Decision Support System FF = Fire Fighter 1.Assessment 2.Analysis 3.Communication 4.Sharing Decision SRA

19.  Defines Objectives  Documents Decision and COA  Guides Deliberate & Time Critical Risk Assessment  Provides Documentation For FLAME Act Strategic Risk Assessment Summary: COA = Course of Action WFDSS = WildFire Decision Support System 2 1.Assessment 2.Analysis 3.Communication 4.Sharing Decision SRA (Unit) (IMT) (Operational) SRA Deliberate Time Critical TimeDataDecision Space

20. Making SRA Value Added Gather: Line Officer Fire Management Officer Resource advisor(s) Recorder Discuss elements of SRA: 1.Assessment 2.Analysis 3.Communication 4.Sharing Recorder: Documents Discussion Using SRA Template Paste into WFDSS Periodic Assessment

21. Change is coming in FY11 2

22. National Changes For Funding Large WF Among others things: For Type 1 And 2 Incidents, The Forest Service Requires Agency Administrators to Develop and Document Their Risk Management Decision, i.e. Follow SRA Process Stems From Past Expenditures On Managing Wildfires & Impacts On Agency Budgets. Culminating In: 2

23. Fire Suppression Funding Changing - 2011+  Based On 5 Yr Moving Average  Initial Attack and Extended Attack  RF’s Accountable  Rebased To Reflect Actual Expenses  Reimburses T1 & T2 Fires  Secretarial Concurrence Based On SRA  Decisions Not Receiving Concurrence, Funded In Dispute  Requires A Presidential Declaration  Audit Trail Of Risk Decisions Made For Type 1 And 2 Fires Is Used For Declaration 2 (Continued) ? CR?

24. How SRA Will Be Used Type 1 & 2 Fires 2011 Continue with SRA 2010 We Practiced FF safety 2 FLAME Act 1.Assessment 2.Analysis 3.Communication 4.Sharing Decision SRA

25. Regional Forester’s Review (RFR)  Evolved Over The Past 4 - 5 Years  Forest Supervisor with Regional Forester DOA to: Review, Validate & Support Wildfire Mgt Strategies Help Develop, Or Validate, Budget To Mgt Wildfire Improve Vertical Ownership Of Strategy To Manage A Wildfire Provided Additional Risk Assessment Support Provided Letter Documenting Concurrence – i.e. Sharing Risk  Supported by: Type 1 Ops, LTAN, and Finance  Product Produced ~48 hours DOA – Delegation Of Authority LTAN – Long Term Analyst 3

26. Regional Forester Engagement for 2011  Line Officer will be RF or DRF  Back-up Will Be Forest Supervisor With DOA  Objectives Same As Previous Years  Letter Will Concur On Course Of Action -- COA  Type 1 And 2 Fires -- ~$10 Million + 3 RF = Regional Forester DRF = Deputy Regional Forester DOA = Delegation Of Authority COA = Course Of Action

27. Timing and Coordination WFDSS Long Term Implementation Plan Strategic Risk Assessment IAEALarge Wildfire Management Regional Forester IMT LTAT -- Long Term Assessment Team NIMO -- National Incident Management Organization Continuous Feedback Loop Out Support IA = Initial Attack EA = Extended Attack WFDSS = WildFire Decision Support System 3

28. Summary We Covered: 1. Federal Fire Policy 2. Strategic Risk Assessment 3. Regional Forester Review 3 2 1

29. Reflections Comments Concerns Lets Have A Conversation