1. Connecting for Jobs Siv Tokle 22 June 2015 ieConnect Impact Evaluation Workshop Rio de Janeiro, Brazil June 22-25, 2015

2. Jobs? 2

3. Definition of ‘Jobs’: Scope 3 A Job = “activities that generate income, monetary or in kind, without violating human rights” (Source: World Development Report (WDR) on Jobs, 2013) Thus, ‘jobs’ encompass wage work (formal and informal), self-employment, sustainable livelihoods and farming……. The scope of work under Jobs also includes creating better jobs (activities that lead to higher productivity and earnings, better benefits, better working conditions and improved income protection) and inclusive jobs.

4. Job effect linkages (source: IFC Jobs Study) 4 Project  Value chain Induced jobs = resulting from direct and indirect employees spending more and increasing consumption Secondary jobs = job creation through benefits of improved access to infrastructure       Indirect job = employment changes in suppliers and distributors Direct jobs= created by service providers that a project works with

5. Supporting for investments in skills 5 Example: Jobs framework and transport investments JOBS LINKED DIRECTLY TO THE ROAD JOBS RESULTING FROM THE IMPACTS OF THE ROAD DURING DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION AFTER COMPLETION FIRMS FARMS HOUSEHOLDS Job CreationProductivityAccess Maximizing jobs intensity Maximizing local supply links Building transferable skills Maximizing local capacity to skills needs Supporting mobility (transport, housing) Supporting households to minimize risks Maximizing and localizing maintenance jobs Facilitating SME investments in transport Ensuring competition in transport services Investments and land use to develop services along the road (market, amenities, etc) Support for SME investments to expand, adopt new technologies, access markets Support for entrepreneurship and self employment Access to information on opportunities Support for access to markets (transport, logistics coordination, intermediaries)

7. Background Additional slides

8. 8 Infrastructure channels to growth lead through both the demand and supply side of labor markets Enabling environment for private investment  Capacity and scale  Input costs  Quality / predictability  Competition Facilitating productivity growth in firms and farms Improving access to markets (internal and cross-border) Improving access to services and human capital development  Allowing households to build assets  Allowing individuals (esp. women) to shift from low to higher productivity activities The large scale, labor intensive, and public works nature of infrastructure investments also makes them a critical catalyst for jobs creation – in times of crisis; as part of regional development strategies

9. Infrastructure projects have long been used to carrying out desk-based assessment of jobs impacts ex ante (the standard models calculating direct, indirect + induced) But these are sometimes divorced from the realities of local economies (firms and workers), and often don’t hold up ex post 9 The challenge of evaluating jobs impacts How can we improve it? Investment Local economy and Jobs (t-1) Local economy and Jobs (t) Attribution? NO, but we can establish strong correlation The methodology describe the local economy and jobs at each stage can make a difference

10. Step 1: Defining the catchment area impacted by the investment (spatial techniques) Step 2: Profiling and establishing the baseline:  Households o Earnings levels and sources o Employment status o Skills and occupational status  Firms and farms o Sector and markets o Size, age, and growth o Employment profile o Investment profile  Local endowments o Infrastructure o Institutions 10 Designing project components to maximize jobs impact and evaluating impacts both require a strong analytical base Two ways to approach this (ideally do both): 1.Ex post analysis of infrastructure and data to infer attribution 2.Carrying out targeted surveys ex ante and ex post within the project catchment areas A critical contribution of #2 is that it supports data with qualitative inputs – on firms, farms, and households – to understand the opportunities from the investments and the remaining constraints that may prevent them from exploiting it

11. Transport and ICT: WB Jobs focused portfolio Jobs Specific Guidance: Job “Flag” captures infrastructure projects with an explicit focus on jobs (not projects where jobs is a by-product) Likely projects: urban transport & mobility, rural roads, broadband access, corridor development, new ports and airports Less likely projects: operations aimed at broader infrastructure development Transport & ICT Portfolio LendingAAA Nos.% % Portfolio10441308 Jobs Relevant Projects 14415%484%

12. Key findings from WBG Jobs portfolio analysis  TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS  Construction and expansion of trade corridors, port facilities and development of seaways, rail links and airports create direct jobs. (IFC, Porti Port, Samara Airport)  Improving connectivity, mobility, cost of transportation, promoting tourism by increasing access leads to the creation of indirect jobs. (IFC, Nairobi Toll Road)  ICT DEVELOPMENT AND BROADBAND ACCESS  ICT enabled businesses accelerate opening of markets and develop global financial networks that are key to employment generation. (WB, Macedonia ICTs for Economic Growth) 20

13. Transport and ICT: Clusters and projects(WB) ClusterPipelineActiveClosedGrand Total Broadband Access 516 Developing Corridors 25815 ICT Development 211316 Ports, Railways & Airports (Construction) 134 Rural Roads 4145472 Technical Expertise 1135 Transport Management (Non- Construction) 235 Urban Mobility 156 Urban Transport 6915 Grand Total 164088144 Flag criteria: Urban transport Urban mobility Rural roads Broadband access Developing corridors Examples: Peru- Rural Road Infrastructure (P132515) Gabon- E-Government Applications (P132824) Kyrgyz Republic- National Road Rehab (Osh-Batken-Isfana corridor) (P123291)