1. CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA: SCIENCE, RISK AND VULNERABILITY Dr Lisa Frost Ramsay (ramsayl@ukzn.ac.za)

2. “New studies confirm that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents because of the range of projected impacts, multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity.” (IPCC, 2007)

3. What does the science say about Africa?  By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people living in Africa are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change.  By 2080, an increase of 5 to 8% of arid and semi-arid land in Africa is projected under a range of climate scenarios (high confidence).  By 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%. Agricultural production (and access to food) in many African countries is projected to be severely compromised.  Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea level rise will affect low lying coastal areas with large populations. The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5 to 10% of GDP.

4. Figure 1: Projections of changes in rainfall for the period of 2090-2099 relative to the present with Dec-Feb on the left and June-Aug on the right (IPCC, 2007)

5. Figure 2: Changes in water availability for the period 2090-2099 relative to the present (IPCC, 2007)

6. What does the science say about South Africa specifically?  General warming across the country  Sea level rise in coastal zone  No long term change in average rainfall across South Africa expected (Joubert et al., 1996 and Foucheareau, 2007) (however IPCC, 2007 suggests overall drying)  Regional impacts  Temporal impacts  Extremes in rainfall variability (daily, seasonal and inter- annual)   intense rainfall events,  number of rain-days  Extreme droughts and flooding events (IPCC, 2007)

7. Flooding…  Tropical cyclones reaching higher latitudes (Pittock and Salinger, 1991)  Increased frequency and intensity of cut-off lows (Mason et al., 1999)  Convective storms… tornadoes? (Hunter, 2008) Droughts… Stronger global signal since the 1970s Increased correlation with El Nino events Long term variations in SST (Faucherau et al., 2003) http://www.weathersa.co.za/References/elnino.jsp

8. A Hint of Things to Come…? Lake St Lucia - 1991 Molweni – 2008Northern Province - 1982 Mozambique – 2000

9. Why is Africa so vulnerable?

10. Figure 2: Changes in water availability for the period 2090-2099 relative to the present (IPCC, 2007)

11. Climate change risks in Africa Scientific research tells us about the environmental hazards associated with climate change Droughts Floods Storms – lightning, hail, tornadoes Sea level rise Etc - MULTIPLE IMPACTS But the story doesn’t stop there... Risk is the combination of this hazard and community susceptibilities to impact  Economic and political factors  Behaviours – social and cultural factors Vulnerability combines risk with resilience Adaptability and the potential to ‘bounce back’

12. Risk and Vulnerability Risk = hazard level + susceptibility to exposure AND Vulnerability = risk + resilience

13. Risk and vulnerability in Africa  A direct relationship with the environment  Subsistence farming  Existing poverty issues – multiple stresses  Overpopulation  Overgrazing and soil erosion  Background health issues and malnutrition  Housing structures  Construction issues  Location issues (e.g on the water’s edge)  Research and communication  Preparedness  Lack of economic support – insurance, loans, savings  Living from year to year (day to day!)  ‘All their eggs in one basket’ Entire communities invested in one type of resource  Traditional lifestyles and adaptability  Long lifestyle histories – cultural even psychological implications of change  No experience of the severity of disasters expected in the next 50 years  Political instabilities  Pushing fragile political systems ‘over the edge’ – war?  Adaptation is not enough  Dependence on international decisions and strategies  Timeframes of mitigation strategies – probably longer than communities can wait Susceptibility?Resilience?

14. Figure 3: Climate change interrelationships (IPCC, 2007)

15. Adaptation and Mitigation “There is high confidence that neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts… Adaptation is necessary both in the short term and longer term to address impacts resulting from the warming that would occur even for the lowest stabilisation scenarios assessed… Adaptation and mitigation can complement each other and together can significantly reduce the risks of climate change.” (IPCC, 2007).