1. 1 Prof. Inês Lima Azevedo, PhD Assistant Research Professor Engineering and Public Policy Department Carnegie Mellon University Executive Director Climate and Energy Decision Making (CEDM) Research on Energy Efficiency at the Climate and Energy Decision Making center

2.  Engineering and economic feasibility of energy efficient end-use systems that provide the same or improved level of energy services  Incorporate behavior and decision making  Understand the effect of public policies on adoption of end-use energy technologies Energy Efficiency Research

3. Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Example 1: Research Energy Efficient Lighting 3 Lighting = 20% of US electricity consumption… Question: what is the potential for EE technologies? Finding: before 2015 LEDs would be the strategy with the lowest annualized costs even for residential with usages of 2h/day

4. Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Example 1: Research Energy Efficient Lighting 4 Lighting = 20% of US electricity consumption… Question: could we use DC circuits to power LEDs and have additional energy efficiency and economic gains? Eng.-Econ. Analysis for DC vs AC lighting systems w/o PV and storage Eng.-Econ. Analysis for DC vs AC lighting systems w/o PV and storage Brinda Thomas found that by 2012 DC- LEDs have the lowest levelized annualized cost.

5. Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Example 1: Research Energy Efficient Lighting 5 Lighting = 20% of US electricity consumption… Eng.-Econ. Analysis for DC vs AC lighting systems w/o PV and storage Eng.-Econ. Analysis for DC vs AC lighting systems w/o PV and storage Perceptions study Question: How do consumers perceive lighting attributes? Huimun Tan, Azevedo, Bruine de Bruin, Lave

6. Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Example 1: Research Energy Efficient Lighting 6 Lighting = 20% of US electricity consumption… Eng.-Econ. Analysis for DC vs AC lighting systems w/o PV and storage Eng.-Econ. Analysis for DC vs AC lighting systems w/o PV and storage Perceptions study Question: How do consumers choose lighting technologies? What’s the effect of label information on choices? Discrete Choice Analysis Jihoon Min, Azevedo, Michalek, Bruine de Bruin

7. FTC introduced new labeling rules in 2012 7 Source: FTC, http://www.ftc.gov/opa/2010/06/lightbulbs.shtm

8.  Structured an experiment in three parts with 183 participants –Using an SDS data truck set up with 7 laptops –In Squirrel Hill over four days –Asked for hypothetical bulb choices for a floor lamp in participants’ living room –Utility models elicited using discrete choice analysis and Sawtooth software Experiment 8 Source: The Center for Behavioral and Decision Research, http://www.cbdr.cmu.edu/datatruck/

9. Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Example 1: Research Energy Efficient Lighting 9 Lighting = 20% of US electricity consumption… Eng.-Econ. Analysis for DC vs AC lighting systems w/o PV and storage Eng.-Econ. Analysis for DC vs AC lighting systems w/o PV and storage Perceptions study Michalek is now using the same approach for vehicle choices… Discrete Choice Analysis NRC report

10. Example 1: Research Energy Efficient & Rebound 10 Residential sector = 21% CO2 emissions Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Question: what is the potential for EE technologies? Question: how to incorporate consumer behavior?

11. Example 1: Research Energy Efficient & Rebound 11 Residential sector = 21% CO2 emissions Implicit discount rates Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Question: what is the potential for EE technologies? Question: how to incorporate consumer behavior? Jihoon Min, Azevedo, Michalek, Bruine de Bruin Rebound Effects

12. Energy efficiency and the rebound effect We ran two international workshops (in Washington and in Stuttgart) taking a critical look at the rebound effect. We are producing a report with IRGC (authored by Azevedo, Sonnberger, Thomas, Morgan and Reen) that summarizes results. This will be followed by a shorter piece that will be briefed to decision makers in North America and in the EU. 12

13. Energy efficiency and the rebound effect Building on this background, Thomas and Azevedo have now under review a piece where we developed an hybrid model using life-cycle assessment input-output models coupled with economic models of consumer expenditures, prices, and income elasticities. The work will provide an improved input for IA models (in review at Ecological Economics) 13

14. Energy efficiency and the rebound effect Hadi is studying the effect of energy efficiency programs in first nations…

15. Example 1: Research Energy Efficient & Rebound 15 Residential sector = 21% CO2 emissions Implicit discount rates Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Question: what is the potential for EE technologies? Question: how to incorporate consumer behavior? Jihoon Min, Azevedo, Michalek, Bruine de Bruin Rebound Effects

16. Example 1: Research Energy Efficient & Rebound 16 Residential sector = 21% CO2 emissions Implicit discount rates Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Tech. Assess. & Eng-Econ. Analysis Question: what is the potential for EE technologies? Question: how to incorporate consumer behavior? Jihoon Min, Azevedo, Michalek, Bruine de Bruin Rebound Effects PEPCO project Canfield, Wong Parodi, Bruine de Bruin Michalek’s work on DCA for vehicles Alan Jenn planned w/ Azevedo, Fischbeck, Matthews