1. 1.231 Term Project Multiple Airports in Campania Italy Shiro Yamanaka CTL MST ’04

2. Campania Airports Motivation Campania regional gov’t hopes to build a second airport near Naples Prepare for future growth Environmental concerns Safety concerns Biggest Concern How do we get airlines to ACTUALLY use it??

3. Campania Airports Why Concerned? Source: de Neufville, and Odoni. Airport Systems. 2002. For more info, refer to: de Neufville, Richard. “Management of Multi-Airport Systems: A Development Strategy.” Journal of Air Transport Management 2.2 (1995): 99-110. Threshold for successful multi-airport systems

4. Campania Airports Why Concerned? (Cont.) Source: de Neufville, and Odoni. Airport Systems. 2002.

5. Campania Airports Why Concerned? (Cont.) Source: de Neufville, and Odoni. Airport Systems. 2002.

6. Campania Airports Why Concerned? (Cont.) Source: de Neufville, and Odoni. Airport Systems. 2002.

7. Campania Airports Why Concerned? (Cont.) Source: de Neufville, and Odoni. Airport Systems. 2002.

8. Campania Airports Why Concerned? (Cont.) Due to inadequate demand and airlines’ tendency to concentrate service at the primary airport, planners worry that no one will use the new airport!

9. Campania Airports Naples: Other Characteristics

10. Campania Airports Naples: Other Characteristics

11. Campania Airports Naples: Other Characteristics Runway Length2.650 m. Width45 m. Orientation06 – 24 MaterialAsphalt Max Weight28,000 Kg. SIWL Source: NACO Report 2002

12. Campania Airports Naples: Other Characteristics Aircraft Mix NLA0% H20% M65% S15% L0% Runway Occupancy Time Take Off66 s Landing45 s Distance Minimum Separation5 n. mi Approach Path19 n. mi. Departure Path4 n. mi. Source: NACO Report 2002

13. Campania Airports Naples: Other Characteristics New airport is almost 30 Km from downtown Naples. Currently, no good access to the site, but the gov’t plans to build highway and high speed rail link. Source: NACO Report 2002

14. Campania Airports Naples: Other Characteristics Most Agg. Frcst: 119,000 mvmt / yr 4.7% annual growth for 18 yrs Least Agg. Frcst: 80,000 mvmt / yr 2.4% annual growth for 18 yrs However, 119,000 mvmt / yr represents approx. 20 mvmt / hr assuming 16-hour operation / day. Source: NACO Report 2002 Source: http://www.gesac.it

15. Campania Airports Why Concentrate? S-shape relationship between Frequency Share and Market Share (Reproduced from de Neufville and Odoni. Airport Systems. 2002.) Observation - Airline with low frequency share suffers from disproportionably low market share, while airline with larger frequency share tend to capture dominating market share. - Thus, airlines tend to concentrate their flights at one airport in order to dominate the market, or at least to prevent competitor from doing so.

16. Campania Airports Why Concentrate? Previous studies also used Binomial or Multinomial Logit Models to predict passenger behavior in Multiple Airport Systems Results: Airport access time and flight frequency seems to be the most important attributes (Con) Given more than one reasonably accessible airports, and if they all provide high frequency of service (usually defined to be >= 9 flights per day) to his or her destination, the traveler will most likely choose the one closest (Con) However, if one airport provides noticeably low frequency of service to his or her destination, the traveler is likely to choose the one which provides the higher frequency even if it is farther away. In other words, when there is a large gap between frequencies at competing airports, access time attribute becomes less important. (Mix)

17. Campania Airports Why Concentrate? Logit Model Results (Cont.): Lower fares are important for leisure travelers, but business travelers seem to care more about service frequencies when choosing airport. For both types of travelers, the airport access time is important. (Mix) Changes in both airport access time and service frequency influence the behavior of both leisure travelers and business travelers, but the latter seems to be more sensitive to the changes. It is because business travelers have higher value of time than leisure travelers. (Con) Experience with one airport seems to affect the passenger choice of airport as well. Passengers prefer to use the airport they are comfortable with, even if it may be older and more congested. (Con)

18. Campania Airports Why Concentrate? Airlines are very much aware of these preferences, and adjust their distribution of flights accordingly!

19. Campania Airports What we recommended? (so far…) Given the tendency of urban sprawl and high uncertainty about the future of commercial air transport, it is recommended to secure the site for future development. (Is it better to have the option in 2050 or not?) Accept the fact that it might be necessary to close down the old airport. Instead of letting them competing directly, try to differentiate services: Low fare carrier? (Southwest examples in the US. Rome traffic?) Charter and Cargo? Different set of destinations? Major League network: Heathrow, CDG, Schiphol, etc. Minor League network: Gatwick, Orly, Brussels, etc.