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Raw Material Security for Indian Steel Industry By : Mr.P.C.Gupta Ex-CMD,NMDC Ltd and Advisor for Mining and Steel Sector.

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Presentation on theme: "Raw Material Security for Indian Steel Industry By : Mr.P.C.Gupta Ex-CMD,NMDC Ltd and Advisor for Mining and Steel Sector."— Presentation transcript:

1 Raw Material Security for Indian Steel Industry By : Mr.P.C.Gupta Ex-CMD,NMDC Ltd and Advisor for Mining and Steel Sector

2 2011-12 2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-17 Crude Steel Production73.7085.9094.50104.00114.5125.90 Pig Iron for Sale6.136.887.668.549.3810.00 Iron Ore115.03135.70149.43166.66185.24206.18 Coking Coal43.2552.2957.9167.4977.2390.16 Non-Coking Coal ( for Sponge Iron Sector)35.3137.8636.5034.7133.9228.41 PCI Coal1.952.402.663.203.834.54 Manganese Ore2.472.963.403.984.575.19 Chromite2.642.903.193.523.934.31 Ferro Chrome0.560.610.670.740.840.92 Ferro-Manganese0.380.430.470.520.570.63 Silico manganese0.891.031.131.251.381.51 Ferro Silicon0.230.260.280.310.340.38 Refractories1.291.421.561.721.89 Table:1 Raw material requirement for projected Crude Steel production during 12 th Five Year Plan (Base Case). (Million Tonnes) *Source : working group report on steel industry for the 12 th five year plan * Based on GDP of 9%. May undergo change in the light of further developments in India & the world. On the basis of GDP growth rates of 7.0 & 8.0% (Base case), the cumulative requirement of raw material at the end of the year is shown in the Table-2 up to 2040-41.

3 Table - 2 Cumulative raw material requirement for projected Iron and Steel production With GDP elasticity of steel demand assumed as 1.14 from the Year 2016-17 to 2040-41. (million Tonnes) 2011-12 to 16- 17 * 2011-12 to 19-202011-12 to 25-262011-12 to 35-362011-12 to 40-41 7.0%8.0%7.0%8.0%7.0%8.0%7.0%8.0% Crude Steel Production 598.5103510442277237861636937955811220 Pig Iron for Sale48.598384177183448496671770 Iron Ore958.24167216873698386210008112541549718168 Coking Coal388.33702708159816724411497168658065 Non-Coking Coal ( for Sponge Iron Sector) 206.713113136376691762200927893321 PCI Coal18.5834358084224253350413 Manganese Ore 21.7237.5737.8980.8486.32223.71251.80346.95 407.28 Ferro-Manganese3.005.175.2211.3811.8930.8134.6847.8056.10 Silico manganese7.1812.4212.5227.3228.5373.9583.24114.70134.64 Ferro Silicon1.83.13.136.837.1318.4820.8128.6733.66 Refractories8.9715.5215.6634.1535.6792.44104.05143.37168.30 Note: While calculating requirement of Ferro-manganese, Silico manganese and Manganese ore, crude steel production has been considered only. Ferro and silico manganese towards exports, other uses of manganese in other industries and requirement of ferro-manganese in stainless steel industry has not been considered. Because of vastness of the subject, this paper deals with only iron ore & coal, the two most important raw materials..

4 Table - 3 Resources of iron ore in India as on 1.4.2010 million tonnes GradeReserves Remaining Resources Total Resources as on 1.4.2010 Hematite8093.59788.617882.1 Magnetite21.810622.310644.1 Total8115.320410.928526.2 (Source: Indian Bureau of Mines, Ministry of Mines)

5 Table – 4 Production / Consumption / Export of Iron Ore (million tonnes) YearProduction Domestic consumption ExportImport 2006-07180.9278.693.790.489 2007-08213.2585.28104.270.29 2008-09212.9687.41105.870.07 2009-10218.6390.62117.370.90 2010-11208.11111.40@97.66N.A. Source: For production and consumption: IBM For Export: MMTC (Department of Commerce). For import: http://www.commerce.nic.in; DGCI&S, Kolkatahttp://www.commerce.nic.in @Estimated by Ministry of Steel

6 Table- 5 Projections for the domestic demand of iron ore during 2019-20 to 2040-41 (million tonnes) GDP Growth rate % 2016-17 2019-202025-262035-362040-41 Crude Steel Production 6.5125.9 154237485693 7.0 125.9 157249536787 7.5 125.9 159261592893 8.0 125.9 1622736541012 8.5 125.9 1642877221147 9.0 125.9 1673007971299 Total Iron Ore requirement* 6.5206.2 2523867861120 7.0206.2 2574018491236 7.5206.2 2604259581441 8.0206.2 26544410581632 8.5206.2 26846711671848 9.0206.2 27348812872091 *Including requirement for merchant pig iron units

7 Table– 6 Cumulative Iron Ore demand during 2010-11 to 2040-41 GDP Growth rate (%) Cumulative Iron Ore Requirement in Billion Tonnes* 6.514.544 7.015.438 7.516.977 8.018.377 8.519.903 9.021.584 Note:* Total Iron ore demand includes actual production of 2010-11 and thereafter projected demand of iron ore as discussed above and also includes demand of iron ore by merchant pig iron units

8 Table - 7 TRENDS OF PRODUCTION OF WASHED COKING COAL Million tonnes YearWashed Coking Coal productiongrowth 2006-077.025-16.1 2007-087.1712.1 2008-097.1810.1 2009-106.547-8.8 2010-116.373-2.7 Source: Provisional Coal Statistics: 2010-11, Ministry of coal

9 Table: -8 Supply of non coking coal to sponge iron units (in million tonnes) YearSupply of non coking coal to sponge iron units 2006-0717.47 2007-0820.92 2008-0919.33 2009-1023.096 2010-1118.76 Source: Provisional Coal Statistics: 2010-11, Ministry of Coal

10 Table-9 Demand for Coking and Non Coking Coal for 12 th Five Year Plan 2011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-17 Crude Steel Production 73.785.994.5104114.5125.9 Total Coking Coal Demand* 43.252.357.967.577.290.2 Production of Coal based Sponge Iron 21.021.220.319.218.715.3 Total Non-Coking Coal Demand for Coal Based DRI and Corex Plants 35.337.936.534.733.928.4 PCI Coal Demand 1.92.42.73.23.84.5 Note: * Total coking coal demand includes those for merchant pig iron units as well.

11 Table No – 10 Estimation of demand for Coal during 2016-17 to 2040-41 (million tonnes) GDP Growth rate 2016-17 2019-202025-262035-362040-41 Crude Steel Production 6.5 125.9 154237485693 7.0 125.9 157249536787 7.5 125.9 159261592893 8.0 125.9 1622736541012 8.5 125.9 1642877221147 9.0 125.9 1673007971299 Total Coking Coal demand* 6.5 90.2 111171351501 7.0 90.2 113180388569 7.5 90.2 114189428645 8.0 90.2 117198473731 8.5 90.2 118208522827 9.0 90.2 120217576937 Total Non-coking coal demand for for Coal based DRI & Corex plants 6.5 28.4 3764143210 7.0 28.4 3868160240 7.5 28.4 3972178274 8.0 28.4 4076197312 8.5 28.4 4180219359 9.0 28.4 4284243404 PCI Coal demand 6.5 4.5 5.68.718.025.8 7.0 4.5 5.79.220.029.3 7.5 4.5 5.89.622.033.3 8.0 4.5 5.910.124.337.8 8.5 4.5 6.010.626.942.8 9.0 4.5 6.111.129.749.0 Note:* Total Coking Coal demand includes those for merchant pig iron units as well

12 Table No – 11 Cumulative Coking & Non-Coking Coal demand for iron and steel industry during 2010-11 to 2040-41 In Billion Tonnes GDP Growth rate (%) Coking Coal Demand * Non coking coal demand for coal based DRI & Corex plants PCI Coal Demand 6.56.352.5760.324 7.06.8722.8070.351 7.57.4433.060.381 8.08.0713.3390.411 8.58.7563.6430.449 9.09.5113.9780.487 Note:* Total Coking & Non Coking Coal demand includes actual supply of 2010-11 and projected demand of coal from 2011-12 to 2040-41 and also includes demand of merchant pig iron units as well.

13 Annexure-1 Reserves/Resources of Iron ore (Haematite) As on 1.4.2010 (P) (By State) StateReservesRemaining Total Resources (in ‘000 tonnes) All India (Total)8,093,5469,788,55117,882,098 AP152,217229,261381,478 Assam012,600 Bihar055 Chhattisgarh900,1102,391,7143,291,824 (3) Goa469,844457,328927,172 Jharkhand2,304,1422,292,4784,596,620 (2) Karnataka876,8661,281,8112,158,678 MP56,814174,632231,446 Maharashtra13,414269,795283,209 Meghalaya0225 Orissa3,313,0002,617,2325,930,232 (1) Rajasthan7,13923,42030,560 UP038,000 Source: IBM

14 Annexure - 2 Type wise Coal Resources as on 1.4.2011 Type of Coal Category Total (in Bt) Proved (in Bt) Indicated (in Bt) Inferred (in Bt) Prime Coking4.620.700.005.31 Med. Coking12.5712.001.8826.45 Semi Coking0.481.000.221.71 Non- Coking95.74123.6731.49250.90 Tertiary Coal 0.590.100.801.49 Total114.00137.4734.39285.86

15 Annexure 3 Coal Production Trend in India Year Metallurgical CoalTotal Coking CoalNon Coking CoalRaw Coal Productio nGrowth Productio nGrowth Productio nGrowth Productio n 12345678 2000-0119.458-8.330.9-6.3282.7964.3313.696 2001-0217.956-7.728.668-7.2299.1195.8327.787 2002-0318.8532.230.1955.3311.0774341.272 2003-0418.268-0.529.401-2.6331.8456.7361.246 2004-0518.194-0.430.2242.8352.3916.2382.615 2005-0617.123-5.931.5114.3375.5286.6407.039 2006-0717.231-0.632.0971.9398.7356.2430.832 2007-0818.0654.834.4557.3422.6276457.082 2008-0917.301-4.234.8091457.9488.4492.755 2009- 10(P)17.6771.944.25632.9487.8066.1532.062

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