1. Adaptation of Biodiversity to Climate Change (AF04) Bob Scholes, Albert van Jaarsveld, Graham von Maltitz, Stephanie Freitag, Mike Rutherford, Guy Midgley, Barend Erasmus, Jean Nel, Jenny Cooper CSIR, SA National Parks, National Botanical Institute, Univ Stellenbosh Report the the AIACC regional meeting Pretoria, March 2003

2. What is the problem?  Country studies, regional studies and IPCC have confirmed that biodiversity is at risk from climate change in southern Africa  Biodiversity is important for the economy, for human welfare and in its own right  We have no guidance regarding the best way to minimise the impact

3. Key species analysis Source: Rutherford et al, National Botanical Institute Aloe marlothii

4. Biome analysis Source: Rutherford et al 2000, SA Country Study, NBI

5. Species richness analysis Source: van Jaarsveld et al Univ Pretoria Current With climate change Land transformation overlaid

6. Objectives of AF04 AIACC study: Adaptation of biodiversity to climate change in Southern Africa  Advance the state of the science  Quantify adaptation options wrt –Cost effectiveness –Robustness –Human welfare and social acceptability  Develop tools for wider use  Develop regional capacity and awareness

7. Evolution of approaches Equilibrium Biome model Equilibrium Species model Equilibrium Func type model Dynamic Species model Dynamic Func type model Biome statistical Island biogeography Optimisation Dynamic, multispecies Fragmented landscape Climate impact studies Conservation biology AF04

8. Adaptation options not mutually exclusive How many species does each option protect? At what cost? How robust are the options to different climates ? Ex situ Conser- vation Do Nothing Size and Shape of parks Facilitated dispersal ‘Matrix Manage- ment’

9. Approach  Three deliberately different case studies 1.Cape floral kingdom: data rich, megadiverse, mountainous,fragmented 2.Succulent Karoo: Diverse, geological specificity, large distances 3.NE Lowveld Ecosystem response, habitat, productivity 2 1 3

10. Cape Floral Kingdom Farmland Current distribution Potential future distribution Protected area Possible future Protected area very detailed and accurate distribution records for some taxa (Proteaceae) Sophisticated conservation planning based on stationary climate

11. Succulent karoo Pop 1Pop 2 Migration of climate envelope Barriers of unsuitable habitat Dispersal distance Propagule number Pop 3 Time to maturity

12. NE Lowveld Plants Herbivores Carnivores Model pathModel constraints Climate, soil (Climate), food, habitat (Climate), prey, habitat Model entities Habitat structure (woody plants, trees, shrubs and grass) Birds: functional groups Mammals: species, functional groups for small mammals Birds: Large and small raptors, scavengers Mammals: Individual species

13. Timeline Start End Jan 2002 Nov 02 Methods workshop Dec 2004 Final reporting Oct 04 Workshop for conservation planners Literature review and planning Jul 03 Completion of Cape Study Jan 04Completion of succulent karoo study Jul 2004 Completion of NE Lowveld study Bioclimatic envelope modelling Dispersal modelling Ecosystem modelling Optimisation studies