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Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com September 9-10, 2010 InterContinental Hotel Boston, Massachusetts September 9-10, 2010 InterContinental.

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Presentation on theme: "Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com September 9-10, 2010 InterContinental Hotel Boston, Massachusetts September 9-10, 2010 InterContinental."— Presentation transcript:

1 Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com September 9-10, 2010 InterContinental Hotel Boston, Massachusetts September 9-10, 2010 InterContinental Hotel Boston, Massachusetts Bob Stahl www.RAStahlCompany.com www.tfwallace.com Bob Stahl www.RAStahlCompany.com www.tfwallace.com Sales & Operations Planning: Beyond the Basics Sales & Operations Planning: Beyond the Basics  IE Group Sales & Operations Planning Summit  IE Group Sales & Operations Planning Summit

2 Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com With apologies to Charles Dickens... Worst of Times... These are perhaps the worst economic conditions in a generation or two... and it may get worse. Best of Times... For those who choose to use them, we have terrific tools in our hands today to deal with the uncertainty!

3 Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com Beyond the Basics... Basics –Volume Balance –Gross Revenue Projections Simpler & Better Tools –Market-Facing Family Forecasting –Simplifying Data Assumptions about MIX –Rapid Simulation & What-If Analysis –Full Financial Integration (P&L and Balance Sheet, etc.) Beyond the Basics –Strategic Planning –Scenario Analysis with Financial Consequences –Risk Management including Cash Flow & Capital Investment Top Management’s Handle on the Business

4 Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com ‘The Books’

5 Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com Step #5 Executive Meeting Decisions & Game Plan Step #4 Pre-S&OP Meeting Conflict Resolution, Recommendations & Agenda for Exec. Mtg. Step #1 Data Gathering End of Month Sales Actuals, Statistical Forecasts & Supply Actuals Step #2 Demand Planning Management Forecast 1st-pass spreadsheets Step #3 Supply Planning Capacity constraints 2nd-pass spreadsheets Heavy Lifting The Executive S&OP Process Creates a Disciplined Rhythm

6 Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com Beyond the Basics... Basics –Volume Balance –Gross Revenue Projections Simplified Tools –Market-Facing Family Forecasting –Simplifying Data Assumptions about MIX –Rapid Simulation & What-If Analysis –Full Financial Integration (P&L and Balance Sheet, etc.) Beyond the Basics –Strategic Planning –Scenario Analysis with Financial Consequences –Risk Management including Cash Flow & Capital Investment Top Management’s Handle on the Business

7 Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com Customer View Customer View Historical View Historical View Market View Market View Reconciliation Process (The DAM Meeting) Reconciliation Process (The DAM Meeting) Consensus Forecast Consensus Forecast Applying “Puts & Takes” Company Forecast Company Forecast Multiple Views...

8 Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com Simplifying Data Assumptions... Assumption Sensitivity

9 Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com An Example...

10 Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com Fiscal Information...

11 Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com Beyond the Basics... Basics –Volume Balance –Gross Revenue Projections Simplified Tools –Market-Facing Family Forecasting –Simplifying Data Assumptions about MIX –Rapid Simulation & What-If Analysis –Full Financial Integration (P&L and Balance Sheet, etc.) Beyond the Basics –Strategic Planning –Scenario Analysis with Financial Consequences –Risk Management including Cash Flow & Capital Investment Top Management’s Handle on the Business

12 Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com “Strategic Planning... forward in reverse” Robert Hayes HBR-Nov/Dec 1985 Strategic Planning - forward in reverse Executive S&OP Strategy Tactics Execution Executive S&OP Annual Business Plan Master Schedule Doing The Right Things Doing The Things Right

13 Widgets Two Scenarios: 1.Supply Leveled against Consensus Demand 2.Supply Leveled against High Demand

14 Consensus Forecast

15 High Forecast

16 16 Gross Revenue – High Forecast

17 17 Direct Margin – High Forecast

18 Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com Center of Gravity... Customers Employees (Suppliers, Community, Country, Planet) Owners Executive S&OP Executive S&OP Desired Force = CentripetalNatural Force = Centrifugal

19 Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com Path of Success... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Months Business Improvement Phase I Pilot Demo Phase II Expansion Live Pilot Demonstration Go/No-Go #2 Phase III Financial Integration Executive Briefing Go/No-Go #1 Kickoff Session Low Cost Low Risk High Impact Quick Results Low Cost Low Risk High Impact Quick Results

20 Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com Done Properly... Simpler (Not Easier) Better (in 90 Days!!!)

21 Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com Good Luck & Thanks for Listening Bob Stahl 508-226-0477 RStahlSr@aol.com www.RAStahlCompany.com www.tfwallace.com

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