1. Internationalization of U.S. Doctorate Education John Bound University of Michigan and NBER Sarah Turner University of Virginia and NBER Patrick Walsh University of Michigan

2. Research Question What explains the rise in the representation of foreign students among PhD recipients from U.S. universities? What determines the level and change in the distribution across countries in the number of U.S. doctorate recipients? What effect does the rise have on the U.S. and on foreign economies?

3. Empirical Starting Points [Overall]

4. Physical Sciences

5. Life Sciences

6. Engineering

7. Economics

8. Trends in funding for university science

9. Theoretical Motivation (Borrowing from Roy Model)

10. Predictions from Theory Cross section Who comes? Those with limited higher education systems will be relatively likely to pursue graduate study at a U.S. university Where do they go? Those with options relatively close to those in the U.S. will be among those with admission offers from some of the best programs in the U.S. Over time Demand shocks. Changes in home country BA production yield increases in doctorate attainment from U.S. universities. Supply shocks. Funding shocks to the U.S. graduate education market will yield relatively larger changes in PhDs awarded to those from countries where demand is relatively elastic. Networks matter.

11. Evidence Cross-Sectional BA and PhD Degrees

12. Representation of Doctorate Recipients at Top-5 Programs (Physics)

13. Representation of Doctorate Recipients at Top-5 Programs (Economics)

14. 1980, Science & Engineering PhDs

15. 1996, Science & Engineering PhDs

16. Country-Specific Trends (Physical Sciences)

17. Country-Specific Trends by Program Quality (Physics)

18. Growth in undergraduate degree attainment

19. Changes in BA Degrees and PhD Degrees Conferred from U.S. Institutions

20. The China Case

21. Understanding degree attainment among U.S. students

22. Share of Growth in US PhDs by Source Country

23. Physics by program rank and year of graduate school entry

24. Average Annual Increase Real Earnings

25. Conclusion In the cross-section, representation and sorting by program quality varies with home country options; “selection” is greater when options are close to those in the U.S. “Demand side” changes generated by dramatic growth in undergraduate degree attainment in countries like China and South Korea and political developments in China and Eastern Europe can explain much – but not all -- of the rise in PhDs awarded to foreign students by U.S. institutions. Labor market and returns to science have not provided strong incentives for U.S. students to enter science and engineering.

26. Further Thoughts Simple economic factors can explain increased internationalization of doctoral education and the Science and Engineering workforce. If there are significant agglomeration effects, increased internationalization will increase TFP. Is the increased presence of foreigners in U.S. PhD programs and in the U.S. scientific workforce a good thing for the U.S.? The simple answer has to be yes. More research at lower prices. What about sending countries? While there is a discussion of “brain drain” in various foreign countries, there is some circulation of scientists back to their countries of origin. Indeed, some countries have policies that explicitly capitalize on this (e.g. Israel). Also, the presence of the U.S. market provides incentives for foreign students and for foreign systems of higher education. Are there losers? Yes. (1) U.S. students who might want to become scientists. (2) Possibly U.S. undergraduates with foreign TAs, in the absence of monitoring of communication skills.

27. Incentives from the labor market