1. 1 Columbia University February 6th 2007 Javier Santiso Chief Economist & Deputy Director OECD Development Centre LATIN AMERICA’S POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE POSSIBLE: Beyond Good Revolutionaries and Free Marketeers

2. 2 LATIN AMERICA: IN THE GARDEN OF DELIGHTS?

3. 3 Utopia in Latin America: from a spacial search to a temporal search. A search which has impregnated the history of Latin American political economy: from structuralism to monetarism, from Marxism to Liberalism. In the 20th Century the whole Continent was dancing a waltz of paradigms. THE FLOOD OF PARADIGMS IN LATIN AMERICA

4. 4 FROM MARXISM TO LIBERALISM: THE WALTZ OF PARADIGMS “The great ideological storms” (Isaiah Berlin). A few decades ago one of the key words in the entire continent was “Revolution”; a projective concept which denotes a temporal Beyond. Whether Cuban or Chilean, Marxist or Liberal, the Revolution will feed the time of tomorrows and the sacrifices of the immediate present. The flood, as Albert Hirschman describes it, brought with it an “angry desire to conclude”, where rigid economic models constituted numerous invitations to design alternatives with no chiaroscuro; either all or nothing.

5. 5 The transformations of the Latin American continent are now obvious. In the region as a whole, the conceptual and practical framework of political economies have been transformed. Democracy and the Market have taken over from Revolution and the State on the altar of references. To sum up, a complete vocabulary and grammar have disappeared from the political and economic repertoire allowing a new ideology to emerge. DEMOCRACY AND THE MARKET: THE NEW ALPHABET

6. 6 The great transformation which took place in Latin America at the end of this century does not herald the arrival of the Good Liberal. There was no transfer from one paradigm to another, instead a new cognitive style emerged. We witness the failure of the whole idea of political utopia and the politicial economy of the impossible. The failure of a cognitive style of macroeconomy of populism, similar to the purist monetarism of the Chicago Boys has only been the defense and illustration of the same concept. THE GREAT TRANSFORMATION OF LATIN AMERICA

7. 7 Perhaps we should not spend too much time mourning the passing away of the great reforming impulses. Hausmann and Rodrik in 2004: most economic accelerations were not preceded by reforming big-bangs, or by marked politicial or economic ruptures. This empirical study covers 83 sustained world growth patterns between 1957 and 1992 (above two percentage points over a period of at least eight years). A BLESSING IN DISGUISE FOR LATIN AMERICA?

8. 8 THE EMERGENCE OF THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE POSSIBLE The strategy used by Ulysses: leaders know that they could be in danger of succumbing to the temptation of the sirens chanting the economic politics of the impossible. They are cautious and they tie themselves to the masts of the fiscal and monetary institutions they have contribute to build. Two strategies of development are being outlined – and sometimes combined-: one is an anchor of endogenous credibility, coming from within, and the other is an anchor of exognous credibility, coming from outside.

9. 9 THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE POSSIBLE: THE SILENT TRANSFORMATION Javier Santiso, Latin America's Political Economy of the Possible Beyond Good Revolutionaries and Free-Marketeers, Cambridge, Mass., MIT Press, 2006.

10. 10 THE GREAT TRANSFORMATION: THE MONETARY MAST 0 50 100 150 200 250 Latin AmericaTotal Emerging Markets Inflation (%) Source: Based on IMF

11. 11 *Central Government By Country (2005) -4.0% -3.5% -3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1996199719981999200020012002200320042005 -3.0*% +0.3% -4%-2%0%2%4%6% Brasil Colombia Peru* México Venezuela* Argentina* Chile* LAC-7: FISCAL BALANCE (SPNF, in % of GDP) THE GREAT TRANSFORMATION: THE FISCAL ANCHOR

12. 12 THE GREAT TRANSFORMATION: THE EXTERNAL ANCHOR 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 1974197619781980 19821984198619881990199219941996199820002002 2004 (e) Trade openness in Latin America Source: Based on BBVA 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70% Mexico Chile Venezuela Uruguay Argentina Colombia Peru Brazil Trade openness in 2005 Source: OECD Development Centre

13. 13 EXTERNAL ANCHORING: MEXICO NOW DEPENDS A LOT LESS ON RAW MATERIALES The export of manufactured goods grew on average between 1990 and 2000, about 28% per year and now accounts for 90% of total exports. Exports 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1980/121984/121988/121992/121996/122000/122004/12 Non Oil Oil 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0

14. 14 Number of firms in Forbes 2000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 IndiaSpainChinaBrazilMexicoChile Source: Forbes 2000 EXTERNAL ANCHORING: BRAZILIAN FIRMS RALLIED MEXICAN MULTILATINAS The 50 more profitable firms 19 16 7 3 11111 0 5 10 15 20 BrazilMexicoChileArgentinaColombiaEcuadorPanamaPeruVenezuela Source: America Economia 2005

15. 15 Evolution of the Pension System in Latin America (in % of GDP) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 123456789111 Num. periods ARGENTINABOLIVIACOLOMBIA COSTA RICACHILEEL SALVADOR MEXICOPERUURUGUAY Return of Democracy GRADUALISM AND CONTINUISM: PENSIONS REFORMS IN CHILE

16. 16 GRADUALISM AND CONTINUISM: PENSIONS REFORMS IN CHILE

17. 17 Source: Mariano Tomassi. “The Institutional Foundations of Public Policy”. Journal of the Latin American Economic Association. Spring 2006. Public Policies in Latin America INSTITUTIONAL ANCHORING: A KEY DRIVER OF POSSIBILISM

18. 18 INSTITUTIONAL ANCHORING: A KEY DRIVER OF POSSIBILISM Source: Mariano Tomassi. “The Institutional Foundations of Public Policy”. Journal of the Latin American Economic Association. Spring 2006. Public Policies in Latin America

19. 19 INSTITUTIONAL ANCHORING: A KEY DRIVER OF POSSIBILISM Source: Mariano Tomassi. “The Institutional Foundations of Public Policy”. Journal of the Latin American Economic Association. Spring 2006. Public Policies in Latin America

20. 20 VENEZUELA ECUADOR PERÚ PARAGUAY ARGENTINA URUGUAY MÉXICO BRAZIL COLOMBIA CHILE EL SALVADOR NICARAGUA HONDURAS COSTA RICA GUATEMALA PANAMÁ REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA BOLIVIA Next presidential elections 2007 - 2009 2006 2004 - 2005 LATIN AMERICA 2006: THE POLITICALCYCLEIS BACK

21. 21 EMERGING DEMOCRACIES IN LATIN AMERICA Average Source: Javier Santiso, “Latin America’s Political Economy of the Possible: Beyond Good Revolutionaries and Free Marketeers”. MIT Press. Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2006 Based on the Inter-American Development Bank

22. 22 THE TIMING GAME: POLITICAL AND FINANCIAL CRISISUSED TO BE SYNCHRONIZED Nominal exchange rate depreciation and government change 0,94 0,96 0,98 1 1,02 1,04 1,06 1,08 1,1 1,12 1,14 1,16 -9-8-7-6-5-4-3-20123456789 Source: Frieden, Ghezzi y Stein, 2001 Country`s Total Elections 1Colombia13 198917 2Costa Rica11 199014 3Guatemala11 19913 4Ecuador10 19920 5Chile10 199310 6Peru10 199418 7Honduras10 19956 8Paraguay9 19968 9Brazil9 19977 10El Salvador9 199815 11Republica Dom.9 199912 Uruguay9 200011 13Mexico9 20014 14Argentina8 200213 15Nicaragua8 20038 16Panama8 20046 17Venezuela8 20055 18Bolivia7 200611

23. 23 SOME COUNTRIES ACHIEVED TO DECOUPLE BOTH CYCLES: MEXICO IN 2000 Source: Jorge Blázquez and Javier Santiso, 2004. Timing of Presidential Elections and Exchange Rate Depreciations in Mexico, 1975-2000 Election Year

24. 24 OTHERS HAVE OVERCOME THE TEST OF FIRE MORE RECENTLY: BRAZIL IN 2006 Source: Based on Juan Martínez and Javier Santiso, 2003.

25. 25 VENEZUELA ECUADOR PERÚ PARAGUAY ARGENTINA URUGUAY MÉXICO BRAZIL COLOMBIA CHILE EL SALVADOR NICARAGUA HONDURAS COSTA RICA GUATEMALA PANAMÁ REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA BOLIVIA Next presidential elections 2007 - 2009 2006 2004 - 2005 LATIN AMERICA 2007: BEYOND THE POLITICAL CYCLE

26. 26 Latin America: The pending challenges Fuente: The World Bank Gini – Market Income Gini – Disposable Income Note: Gini coefficiente calculated before and after taxes, social security and transfers.

27. 27 Social Pacts and Fiscal Pacts Fuente: The World Bank Gini – Market Income Gini – Disposable Income Note: Gini coefficient calculated before and after taxes, social security and transfers.