1. Hard Times? Trends in the economy, vacancies and occupations Tony Wilson & Paul Bivand Centre for Economic & Social Inclusion

2. Toughest jobs market for a generation

3. Back in 2010, consensus was return to trend growth...

4. Since then things have got worse – new forecasts are much weaker...

5. And even those may be optimistic!

6. Result: 300,000 fewer jobs forecast now than previously for 2011-15

7. Which means more people on JSA – up to 350,000 more than expected

8. And while new vacancies have come back up...

9. They’re barely keeping pace with new claimants...

10. And more competition means the stock of vacancies is in the doldrums

11. We think that job outcomes and GDP follow each other

12. So: Hard times And far tougher than when JCP and Work Programme budgets were set

13. JCP: seeing more people reaching long- term unemployment

14. Work Programme: DWP changing views

15. Already seeing this in referrals June to January 2012 – up 20%

17. And will feed through into outcomes Iron law: lower growth = fewer jobs

18. A closer look – what’s happening with vacancies, occupations?

19. Survey vacancies flat, JCP up

20. How does that compare to new JSA claims?

21. Turning new vacancies and claims into a single ratio

22. Drilling down more deeply... We study 26 groups of jobs covering all occupations that are not managerial, professional or associate professional We analyse the seasonal patterns We analyse the trends And we compare with new JSA claims – because some jobs are higher turnover than others – this corrects for that We even do short-term forecasts All for CPA areas with headline totals for local authorities

23. An example...

24. Comparing that to new JSA claims

25. Administrative occupations

26. Customer service recovering

27. Sales assistants – not (but may be changing names)

28. But some areas looking better - drivers

29. Date 911 : Eleme ntary Agric ultura l Occup ations 912 : Eleme ntary Const ructio n Occup ations 913 : Eleme ntary Proce ss Plant Occup ations 914 : Eleme ntary Goods Stora ge Occup ations 921 : Eleme ntary Admi nistra tion Occup ations 922 : Eleme ntary Perso nal Servic es Occup ations 923 : Eleme ntary Cleani ng Occup ations 924 : Eleme ntary Securi ty Occup ations 925 : Eleme ntary Sales Occup ations 811 : Proce ss Opera tives 812 : Plant And Machi ne Opera tives 813 : Asse mbler s And Routi ne Opera tives 814 : Const ructio n Opera tives 821 : Trans port Driver s And Opera tives 822 : Mobil e Machi ne Driver s And Opera tives 711 : Sales Assist ants And Retail Cashi ers 712 : Sales Relat ed Occup ations 721 : Custo mer Servic e Occup ations 41 : Admi nistra tive Occup ations 42 : Secre tarial and Relat ed Occup ations 51 : Skille d Agric ultura l Trade s 52 : Skille d Metal and Electr onic Trade s 53 : Skille d Const ructio n and Buildi ng Trade s 54 : Textil es, Printi ng and Other Skille d Trade s 61 : Carin g Perso nal Servic e Occup ations 62 : Leisur e and Other Perso nal Servic e Occup ations May 2008 0.71.00.6 6.52.13.45.07.21.52.01.81.42.51.81.017.34.01.62.10.62.61.22.73.61.3 June 2008 0.80.90.6 6.32.03.34.56.61.51.71.81.12.31.60.915.23.51.51.90.72.41.12.53.41.2 July 2008 0.8 0.60.55.91.93.14.36.51.4 1.61.12.01.50.814.03.21.41.70.62.20.92.43.31.2 August 2008 0.7 0.5 5.21.83.13.96.11.41.21.50.81.81.30.812.42.91.21.50.61.90.82.43.31.2 September 2008 0.60.70.5 4.11.83.03.75.91.31.01.30.81.51.10.811.02.61.11.40.41.70.62.33.51.2 October 2008 0.80.60.50.45.21.73.03.45.51.20.91.20.71.30.90.811.12.41.01.30.41.50.52.23.61.1 November 2008 0.70.50.4 5.11.62.83.25.11.10.71.00.61.00.80.710.52.10.91.10.41.20.42.03.61.0 December 2008 0.70.4 0.35.91.42.52.94.70.90.60.80.50.80.70.610.52.00.81.00.41.00.41.73.30.9 January 2009 0.50.40.3 4.41.42.42.94.80.90.60.70.50.80.60.79.02.00.81.00.30.90.41.73.10.9 February 2009 0.4 0.3 4.01.12.12.34.00.80.40.60.50.70.60.58.51.70.70.80.30.70.31.32.60.7 March 2009 0.4 0.3 3.61.01.92.13.80.80.30.60.40.70.60.57.81.40.7 0.30.60.31.22.30.7 April 2009 0.40.3 3.90.91.8 3.30.70.30.50.30.60.5 8.61.20.6 0.30.50.31.12.20.6 May 2009 0.50.3 4.11.01.81.93.40.80.30.50.30.60.5 8.71.10.60.70.30.40.31.32.00.7 June 2009 0.40.3 4.41.01.91.83.20.80.40.50.30.60.5 10.21.20.60.70.30.40.31.32.00.7 July 2009 0.3 0.40.34.41.01.91.83.20.80.40.60.40.70.50.69.51.20.60.70.30.40.31.32.10.7 August 2009 0.4 4.51.02.01.73.00.80.40.70.40.80.6 10.91.40.60.80.30.40.31.42.10.7 September 2009 0.4 4.01.02.01.83.10.90.50.80.40.90.70.510.11.50.70.80.30.40.31.52.10.7 October 2009 0.50.4 4.61.02.01.93.30.90.60.80.41.00.70.511.21.60.60.80.40.50.31.52.10.8 November 2009 0.4 4.80.91.92.03.51.10.60.80.51.10.80.510.51.60.70.80.30.50.31.42.10.8 December 2009 0.5 0.4 5.51.01.92.03.51.10.70.90.51.20.90.511.01.70.70.90.30.60.41.52.20.8 January 2010 0.60.5 4.81.12.12.03.61.30.81.10.51.31.10.611.01.90.80.90.30.70.41.52.30.8 February 2010 0.6 0.5 4.61.12.12.03.51.20.81.10.61.41.20.612.11.80.71.00.30.70.51.52.20.9 March 2010 0.6 0.5 5.61.22.1 3.61.31.01.20.61.51.30.613.41.80.70.90.30.80.51.62.30.8 April 2010 0.50.60.5 6.71.12.12.23.61.41.01.30.71.61.50.514.91.70.70.90.30.80.61.52.20.8 May 2010 0.50.70.50.67.61.22.2 3.71.51.11.50.81.7 0.516.41.70.81.00.30.90.61.72.40.9 June 2010 0.40.70.50.66.81.12.22.33.71.51.21.60.81.9 0.518.31.70.81.00.30.90.61.72.60.9 July 2010 0.40.80.50.66.21.12.22.13.41.51.21.50.82.02.10.519.91.70.80.90.30.90.61.72.60.9 August 2010 0.30.80.5 5.61.02.02.33.51.41.21.40.92.02.20.519.51.60.70.80.20.90.71.62.30.8 September 2010 0.30.80.5 4.70.91.82.23.31.31.21.30.91.92.30.418.41.60.70.80.20.90.71.52.00.7 October 2010 0.30.80.5 6.40.91.82.33.31.1 1.30.92.02.30.417.91.50.60.70.21.00.81.52.00.7 November 2010 0.30.80.40.56.50.81.72.33.31.01.11.30.92.2 0.426.61.50.6 0.31.00.81.52.00.7 December 2010 0.40.80.5 7.40.81.82.23.11.1 1.30.92.42.10.426.11.60.6 0.31.10.81.52.10.8 January 2011 0.50.80.5 5.70.81.82.23.11.31.21.40.92.21.90.422.51.60.7 0.31.20.71.62.00.7 February 2011 0.50.80.5 5.40.81.72.23.11.3 1.40.92.21.90.413.11.60.6 0.31.30.71.61.80.7 March 2011 0.40.80.5 5.30.81.62.43.31.21.41.31.12.0 0.414.61.60.6 0.21.40.81.61.90.7 April 2011 0.30.90.50.45.10.81.62.73.81.01.51.3 2.12.30.416.11.40.50.60.21.60.81.71.90.8 May 2011 0.40.80.50.45.50.91.72.63.71.21.41.3 2.12.40.415.21.40.50.60.21.60.81.82.10.8 June 2011 0.40.80.50.46.10.91.72.63.81.21.41.21.32.22.40.414.11.30.40.60.21.60.71.82.10.8 July 2011 0.40.90.40.56.60.91.82.63.91.41.51.21.42.32.50.412.31.40.40.60.21.60.81.92.20.8 August 2011 0.41.00.5 6.60.91.82.74.11.31.61.41.62.6 0.412.41.50.50.60.21.71.01.82.30.8 September 2011 0.41.10.5 5.50.81.82.94.41.31.61.41.72.8 0.312.31.40.50.60.31.81.11.82.40.8 October 2011 0.51.10.5 10.60.81.72.74.21.21.61.51.83.13.00.314.31.40.50.60.31.91.11.92.50.9 November 2011 0.51.10.50.613.50.81.82.74.41.21.71.41.83.33.20.316.61.50.50.60.31.91.11.92.80.9 December 2011 0.61.10.50.715.50.91.82.74.51.41.81.61.93.43.10.318.11.60.50.70.32.01.02.03.10.9 January 2012 0.51.10.6 12.91.12.02.84.81.51.81.51.72.92.70.421.81.70.60.80.42.00.91.93.40.9 February 2012 0.51.00.6 10.61.12.02.95.01.51.81.51.42.42.50.419.21.60.60.80.31.90.91.94.00.9 March 2012 0.61.00.60.512.21.12.02.95.01.51.81.51.22.22.40.418.91.80.60.80.21.90.91.94.20.9 April 2012 0.71.00.60.511.91.12.03.35.81.61.81.71.62.7 0.414.82.40.60.80.22.10.92.14.71.1 May 2012 0.71.10.60.511.91.12.03.56.21.61.81.71.83.12.70.415.72.70.70.80.22.20.92.14.41.2

30. The regional picture RegionLatestRank Last Month Change on month Same Month last year Change on year East 1.554 1.57-0.01 1.180.38 East Midlands 1.732 1.590.14 1.140.59 London 1.0210 0.950.07 0.670.35 North East 1.0211 0.970.05 0.820.20 North West 1.366 1.320.04 1.000.37 Scotland 1.059 1.030.02 0.800.25 South East 1.781 1.710.07 1.180.60 South West 1.693 1.660.03 1.280.41 Wales 1.207 1.170.03 1.030.17 West Midlands 1.525 0.00 1.180.34 Yorkshire and The Humber 1.178 1.150.02 0.940.23 Highest number or largest riseThese are based on seasonally adjusted figures Lowest number or largest fall

32. What does this all mean?! Demand: Labour market will continue to be resilient with caveats Service sector still create jobs? But changing jobs Manufacturing opportunities Transport/couriering – e.g. Internet shopping [Geography] No sign of wages pressuring employers Vacancies coming back up, but enough to make inroads?

33. A green shoot? Changes in GDP and total hours worked (index 2008 Q1)

34. Supply Hard Times More competition at entry level (and all levels); increased by reforms: More lone parents on JSA Fewer people passing WCA Universal Credit around the corner Jobcentre Plus challenge: Resource? Freedom and flex? Economy? Work Programme: economy, performance, both? How support the growing number who will reach very long-term unemployment? Is workfare enough?