1. Identifying potential wildlife impacts of biomass production for bioenergy: future landscape scenarios in a case study of planned biomass co-firing in Wisconsin Carol L. Williams 1, Christine A. Ribic 2, David A. Sample 3, Christopher Kucharik 4 1 Department of Forest & Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin – Madison; 2 US Geological Survey, Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, Madison; 3 Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Madison; 4 Department of Agronomy, University of Wisconsin – Madison. US-IALE Twenty-fifth Anniversary Symposium, Athens, GA April 7, 2010

2. Overview The Wisconsin Challenge The Charter St. Project Modeling approach/landscape scenarios Goals/anticipated outcomes

4. The Wisconsin Challenge Photo: Stephen Codrington Photo: No. States Power Co. Photo: USEPA Great Lakes Photo: UW Extension

5. The Charter St. Project Photo: Capitol Times

6. State of Wisconsin Current Land Cover What biomass? From where? How? What ecological impacts? Map: WDNR Charter St. Facility

7. Two-phased Modeling Approach Phase 1: render landscape scenarios that describe plausible biomass markets according to: Phase 1: render landscape scenarios that describe plausible biomass markets according to: – Cellulosic biomass type & diversity – Productivity class(es) of lands in production – Spatial distribution of biomass market

8. Phase 1

9. I : Intermediate agricultural land M: Marginal agricultural land P: Prime agricultural land = bioenergy facility

12. Phase 2 Evaluate habitat suitability for a suite of wildlife species of Greatest Conservation Need in Wisconsin Evaluate habitat suitability for a suite of wildlife species of Greatest Conservation Need in Wisconsin – construct habitat suitability indices; produce habitat suitability maps for future scenarios & current land use/land cover – from paired maps generate difference maps to indicate changes in habitat suitability (+/- and neutral) between present & future landscapes for each focal species

13. Present Landscape

14. Future Scenario A

15. Difference Maps Present landscape Future A -=

16. Goals/Outcomes Identify potential landscape-level changes in land use/cover in response to demand for biomass production Identify potential landscape-level wildlife habitat impacts of potential future biomass markets Discover potential opportunities for maximizing biomass production & conservation goals

17. Identifying potential wildlife impacts of biomass production for bioenergy: future landscape scenarios in a case study of planned biomass co-firing in Wisconsin Carol L. Williams 1, Christine A. Ribic 2, David A. Sample 3, Christopher Kucharik 4 1 Department of Forest & Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin – Madison; 2 US Geological Survey, Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, Madison; 3 Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Madison; 4 Department of Agronomy, University of Wisconsin – Madison. US-IALE Twenty-fifth Anniversary Symposium, Athens, GA April 7, 2010