Presentation on theme: "First ASEAN Statistical Report on MDGs Indicators"— Presentation transcript:
1 First ASEAN Statistical Report on MDGs Indicators Some Findings and Points For DiscussionASEAN Secretariat PaperInternational Conference on MDGs IndicatorsManila, October 2011
2 Outline Background Feasibility Study Objectives of the Report Features of the ReportGeneral ApproachPreliminary ResultsSome NotesSome Preliminary Findings
3 BackgroundMDGs, poverty alleviation and narrowing the development as important goals of ASEAN Community buildingThe 8 goals and 21 targets of the MDGs and the Community goals of ASEANSome significant challenges still need to be overcome to fully achieve the MDGs and narrow the development gap
4 Background Under the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC): Joint Declaration on the Attainment of MDGs, 2009.Roadmap and monitoring and evaluation systemFramework Plan of Action on Rural Development and Poverty EradicationWork Plan for Primary Education and Gender EqualityWork Plan on the Elimination of Violence against WomenThe narrowing development gap
5 Background Strong demand for ASEAN level indicators support the implementation and monitoring of the Joint Declaration on the attainment of the MDGs, ASCC Blueprint;very little is available concerning ASEAN level socio-cultural indicators;demand for absolute value of ASEAN figures on key indicators such as poverty, infant mortality, children with malnutrition, unemployment, etc.demand for sub-region of ASEAN (CLMV and ASEAN6) to facilitate the narrowing development gap.reinforce the “we” feeling.
6 Feasibility Study, 2010 Q3 Involving 10 ASEAN Member States Outcomes: No single country in ASEAN has covered all of the 60 MDGs indicators;Some indicators have different data sources at the country level, and different definition across countries;Some data are available only in a few countries;The reference period and reference population of some data differ across countries;Some are not disaggregated enough to yield a breakdown by sex, age group, etc.
7 Feasibility Study, 2010 Q3possible to compile an ASEAN Statistical Report on the MDGs covering a subset of the recommended indicatorsFor some indicators, meaningful ASEAN aggregates are possible;Differences in reference year can be approached by using data closest to the reference year;For some, the missing figures can be addressed by using estimates;In cases where meaningful comparison is unlikely, the change in level and change in discrepancies can still provide meaningful information
8 Objectives of the Report to present data on MDGs indicators to facilitate the monitoring of progress of ASEAN Community in meeting its commitments in achieving the millennium development goalswhere the ASEAN Community is with regards to the MDG goals and targetsprogress by which the ASEAN is moving towards the MDGs
9 Features of the Report a statistical report; as such, it will not: evaluate policies and programsprovide policy/program analysis/ recommendationspresents:Tables, charts, mapsprogress, disparities, pace of progress, years needed to reach a certain targetASEAN and sub-ASEAN regioncovers: 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010covers, as a start, 27 agreed indicatorsto be updated every 2 years: 2011, 2013, 2015
10 General approach AMSs should be involved in all stages Any estimates should be done in collaboration with AMSs and get AHSOM endorsementASEAN Heads of Statistical Offices Meeting (AHSOM) endorsed in July 2010 the plan to carry out a feasibility studyIn December 2010 AHSOM endorsed the workshop’s recommendations including the proposed 27 indicators
11 General ApproachBasic data will come from the official statistics of AMSsImputations using linear interpolations will be done to come up with data for the selected years – 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010, as necessaryImputed values will be subject to review and approval by the AMSASEAN aggregate will be based on at least 5 AMSs covering more than 50% of ASEAN population
12 Classification of Progress For indicators with explicit targets by 2015Early achiever: already achieved the 2015 targetOn track : expected to meet the target by 2015Slow: expected to meet the target by after 2015No progress/regressing: stagnating or slipping backwardsFor indicators without explicit targets by 2015Early achiever: trending in the right direction since 1990On track : showing no change at all over the periodOff track -No progress/regressing: trending in the wrong direction
14 Full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people The proportion of employed population increased over time; and in 2010 , 60.8 % population in ASEAN5 are estimated to be employed, with Singapore having the highest proportion.
15 Net Enrollment Ratio in Primary Education Net enrolment ratio in primary education has generally increased, from 86.9 percent in 1990 to 90.6 percent in 2010.Myanmar and Thailand showed the greatest advances, significantly narrowing the gap with other ASEAN 5 countries
16 Gender Equality and Empower Women Girls and boys have almost equal opportunities in attending primary and secondary education, with the boys at a slight advantage.Girls have more access in Thailand and Myanmar.
17 Seats held by women in national parliament ASEAN level figure was still les than 15% in 2010, and will be very much affected as more data is availableAn indication of strong positive trend, however, is apparent.
18 CLMV continues to lag behind ASEAN6 in reducing infant mortality 19901995200020052010ASEAN 65646352819CLMV7555483629Ratio of ASEAN 6 to CLMV0.70.8Both ASEAN 6 and CLMV have successfully reduced mortality rate to lower than half since However, in 2010 both still recorded around or above 20, and CLMV continues to lag behind the ASEAN 6.
19 Infant mortality rate has declined by more than half from1990 to 2010 Despite the progress, there are still an estimated 150,000 children who died before they reached the age of one year old, or about 415 infants die each day in the region.
20 77 percent of children immunized against measles in 2010 From 59 percent in 1995, the proportion of 1-year old children immunized against measles has gone up to 77 percent
21 ASEAN has significantly reduced the number of births not attended by skilled health personnel since 1990In 2010, however, 1 out of every 5 births still unattended by skilled health personnel
22 ASEAN has halved Maternal Mortality Ratio since 1990 Despite the progress, 44 women die each day from pregnancy related causes; and progress towards reducing by three quarters the maternal mortality ratio has been slow
23 Disparities in Maternal Mortality Ratio, however, was huge in 2010
24 Efforts to combat malaria and TB have led to dramatic reduction in the incidence of malaria but mild in TBincidence of malaria has declined from 755 cases per 100,000 population in 1990 to 198 cases per 100,000 population to 2010, but only from 148 to 132 cases per 100,000 population for tuberculosis
25 Disparity was however still extremely high in 2010
26 The loss of forest cover slowed down The loss of forest cover slowed down. Recent data suggest that reforestation efforts have halted further declines.The proportion of land area covered by forest has declined by 4 percentage points since 1990, but the loss of forest cover slowed down recently.
27 The target of 69.5 percent for improved sanitation for 2015 has been achieved in 2010! However, 3 out of every 10 persons in 2010 still do not have access to improved sanitation facilitymore than one-third (37%) of the population still do not have access to improved drinking water source (caution: Indonesia’s case, only 44%)
28 Access to new information and communication technologies has been increasing rapidly There are 83 cellular subscribers for every 100 population in 2010, up from 23 in 2005; and 21 internet users per 100 population in 2010, up from 6 in 2005.The increase in telephone lines has been slower, from 4 per 100 population in 2000 to 9 in 2010
29 CLMV have caught up with those in ASEAN 6 in the proportion of telephone lines and cellular subscribersTelephone linesCellular subscriberInternet users200020052010ASEAN 65109CLMVa2420052010ASEAN 62985CLMVa77720052010ASEAN 6a622CLMVb512Per 100 populationDoes not include Lao PDRPer 100 populationASEAN 6 does not include Malaysia and the PhillippinesCLMV does not include Lao PDRPer 100 population
30 Cellular phone subscribers reached more than 100 in Singapore, Viet Nam, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam, and Thailand, and above 70 in others except in Myanmar
31 Indication of Pace of Progress in ASEAN (Preliminary) Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger TargetEstimatefor 2010ProgressTarget 1.A: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a dayProportion of population below $1 (PPP) per dayxProportion of population below the national poverty line2619early achieverShare of poorest quintile in national consumptionTarget 1.B: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young peopleGrowth rate of GDP per person employedEmployment-to-population ratioTarget 1.C: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hungerPrevalence of underweight children under-five years of age17.417.3
32 Indication of Pace of Progress (preliminary) Goal 2: Achieve universal primary educationTarget 2.A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schoolingNet enrolment ratio in primary education10090.6slowLiteracy rate of year-olds, women and men98.6on trackGoal 3: Promote gender equality and empower womenTarget 3.A: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015Ratio of girls to boys in primary educationRatio of girls to boys in secondary education99Ratio of girls to boys in tertiary educationoff trackProportion of seats held by women in national parliament
33 Indication of Pace of Progress (Preliminary) Goal 4: Reduce child mortality TargetEstimatefor 2010ProgressTarget 4.A: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rateUnder-five mortality rate3341On trackInfant mortality rate2124 Proportion of 1 year-old children immunised against measles77on trackGoal 5: Improve maternal health Target 5.A: Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratioMaternal mortality ratio73146slowProportion of births attended by skilled health personnel78early achieverGoal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseasesTarget 6.C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseasesIncidence of malaria198Incidence of tuberculosis 132 early achiever
34 Indication of Pace of Progress (Preliminary) Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainabilityTarget 7.A: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resourcesProportion of land area covered by forest54off trackTarget 7.C: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitationProportion of population using an improved drinking water source77.563slowProportion of population using an improved sanitation facility69.570early achieverGoal 8: Develop a global partnership for developmentTarget 8.F: In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communicationsTelephone lines per 100 population29Cellular subscribers per 100 population83Internet users per 100 population21
35 Some Notes Not showing a full picture of MDG achievement In some cases not showing a full picture of ASEAN.Some figures are subject to change and more indicators will be presented as more data is available.The same issues of definition as faced by other international organizations remain
36 Some Preliminary Findings Some countries are catching up very fast with their neighbors.Some countries have experienced reversals.Countries that are lagging behind are not always the CLMV countries.While the ASEAN 6 may be performing better than the CLMV countries in terms of economic performance, this is not usually the case with respect to the MDG indicators.Disparities among countries are pronounced especially in maternal mortality ratio,…
37 Caution in Interpretation Different Practices such as in:Birth attended by skilled health personnelSlow maternal mortalityBottled waterForest coverComparability with international estimatesHarmonization of concept and definition