1. Economic Data & Analysis

2. What are we Trying to do?

3. What are we trying to do? Export goods and services Import money Circulate money internally

4. Planning Intelligence for Economy Many sources of data – U.S. Census – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Bureau of Economic Analysis – N.C. Employment Securities Commission

5. Planning Intelligence for Economy U.S. Census – County Business Patterns (Annual) County Business – Economic Census (Every 5 years) Economic Census Census Commodity flow survey Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dept. of Labor) Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau of Economic Analysis (Dept. of Commerce) Bureau of Economic Analysis

6. Planning Intelligence for Economy State of North Carolina – NCESC NCESC Alternate at bls for MSAsbls – NC Department of Revenue NC Department of Revenue Research and data

7. Doing Intelligence Need some indicators of economic activity – Example, WNC Economic IndexWNC Economic Index Current Indicators – Employment – Unemployment Rate Leading Indicators – Building Permits (Residential) – Initial Claims for Unemployment Creation of a tracking “index” – Actual number is meaningless – Trend of number is meaningful

8. Doing Intelligence Descriptive information – Sectoral (disaggregate) – Employment (aggregate) Analytical information – Multipliers – Location Quotients – Shift/Share Analysis

9. Employment Multipliers Total Employment / Export Employment A multiplier tells us how many jobs are created (or lost) when we attract (or lose) employment in our community Easy to identify total employment – What about “export” employment?

10. The Location Quotient Identifying “export” sectors Comparing shares of local employment by sector with a “self-sufficient” economy – Usually, national economy – Can use other levels in hierarchy, but interpretations change

11. Location Quotient Let’s go to the spreadsheet & page 10 of handout…

12. Shift-Share Analysis Measures firm efficiency / competitiveness Three parts to shift/share – National Growth Component (NG) – Industrial Mix Component (IM) – Competitive Share Component (CS)

13. Shift-Share National Growth Component – Assumes local economic growth at national pace – Estimate of how many local jobs were created merely to national trends (assuming they are similar in nature) Multiply base year local employment (by sector), by the national growth rate

14. Shift-Share Industrial Mix Component Indicates whether a specific sector is growing faster (+) or slower (-) national total employment Multiply local employment in each sector by: – Difference in sector growth rate & total growth rate for the nation

15. Shift-Share Competitive Share Component Determines if local sectors are more competitive (=) than similar national sectors Multiply local sector employment by – Difference in local sector growth rate & national sector growth rate Let’s go to spreadsheet…

16. ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS The following abbreviations and symbols are used with County Business Patterns data: – Represents zero (page image/print only) D Withheld to avoid disclosing data of individual companies; data are included in higher level totals S Withheld to avoid releasing data that do not meet publication standards; data are included in broader industry totals. X Not applicable a 0 to 19 employees b 20 to 99 employees c 100 to 249 employees e 250 to 499 employees f 500 to 999 employees g 1,000 to 2,499 employees h 2,500 to 4,999 employees i 5,000 to 9,999 employees j 10,000 to 24,999 employees k 25,000 to 49,999 employees l 50,000 to 99,999 employees m 100,000 employees or more