1. Future Wireless Network Architecture Driven by Broadband Data Traffic
MIT CIPS Workshop
October 28, 2009
Berge Ayvazian, Senior Advisor, Yankee Group Principal Consultant, Wireless 20/20
10/28/09
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2. Introduction to Wireless 20/20
Consulting group focused on the emerging broadband wireless market – 3G, LTE, Wi-Fi, WiMAX
Expertise in Broadband technology, market and modeling
Provide support to the “Broadband Wireless Ecosystem”
Component Vendors, Equipment Vendors, Service Providers, Regulators
Developed over 30 Wireless Business Cases around the world
North America, South America, China, Europe, Africa, Middle East
Developed comprehensive tools to model broadband wireless networks
What is the impact on ROI?
10/28/09
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3. Mobile Industry Trends
Evolution to Data-centric Mobile Networks
Data is growing faster than voice on today’s 2G and 3G networks
Need for scalable backhaul as all-IP 4G networks develop
Emergence of Smartphone Applications
Driven by mobile , SMS/MMS, ringtones and content
Hosted apps specific for mobile smartphone devices
Growth of Mobile Internet Traffic
Transition from mobile /SMS to internet-based multimedia content and information exchange: YouTube and social networking
Mobile access to cloud computing services, eg. Salesforce.com
10/28/09
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4. Mobile Device and Application Trends
Mobile Broadband Smartphone Handsets, Notebooks and Netbooks and DataCards Drive Data Traffic Growth
Emergence of Smartphone Applications and Widgets
Laptops/ DataCards
Netbooks
3G Smartphones
MIDs
Consumer Electronics
10/28/09
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5. Global Mobile Data Forecast
Global mobile traffic will increase 66X between
Broadband will drive 80% of mobile traffic, and exceed two exabytes per month
Global mobile data traffic reached one exabyte/month in half the time it took fixed data traffic to do so
High-end 3G smartphone generates more data traffic than 30 basic-feature 2G cell phones
Laptop Aircard or Netbook generates more data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phones
Almost 64% of world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013 including streaming, downloading and interactive video communications
Mobile Data/Video Challenge - Scalable Core and Backhaul
10/28/09
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6. Mobile Data Traffic Tsunami
Source: Cisco Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Informa Telecoms and Media, 2009
10/28/09
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Massive Data Traffic Growth Forecast Tier 1 US Mobile Service Providers
Year
Source: Yankee Group, 2009
Mobile Broadband Data Traffic Growth Drives Backhaul Requirements
Data ARPU
10/28/09
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8. US Mobile Operator Network Evolution
HSPA+ in 2010
No Announced Date for LTE
HSPA (R6) in 2010
Maximum 7.2 Mbps
Average 700 Kbps – 1 Mbps
GSM Voice
HSDPA - Data
T-Mobile USA
Clearwire Network Build out in selected markets
Mobile WiMAX e
CDMA Voice EV-DO Rev A - Data
Sprint
LTE Trials by year-end 2009 LTE Deployment begins for 30 commercial markets nationwide build-out late 2013 or early 2014.
LTE .
Verizon Wireless
LTE trials in 2010 Deployment begins in 2011
HSPA (R6) in Maximum 7.2 Mbps Ave ,700 Kbps
GSM Voice HSDPA - Data
AT&T
4G Deployment Date
Next 3G Data Network
Current 3G Network
Mobile Network Operator
10/28/09
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9. Media Internet Centric Horizontal and Vertical Integration
Mobile Internet and 4G Network Transformation Will Impacts the Entire Mobile Ecosystem
Devices
Voice-centric
Media Internet Centric
Access/Backhaul
Narrowband
Broadband
Edge/Core
Connectivity Centric
Internet Centric
Services/Apps
Vertical Integration
Horizontal and Vertical Integration
10/28/09
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Today’s Mobile Data Network Architecture Not Built for Mobile Data Applications
AT&T’s Edge and 3G network performance has suffered trying to support millions of iPhones
Netbooks and datacards are the next challenge
RAN being upgraded to HSPA+ and ultimately LTE
Cost for Existing Backhaul running into $100Ms
Current backhaul is being upgraded to Fiber/Ethernet
AT&T’s network is a harbinger for other mobile providers
Verizon Wireless
Sprint/Clearwire
T-Mobile
Vodafone
Orange
Telefonica/O2
None of them are Ready for 4G
10/28/09
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4G Operator Deployment Strategies Driven by Legacy Position and Competitive Market
4G Plans of Major MNOs
MNOs making huge investment on RAN and Backhaul for Mobile Broadband
AT&T and Vodafone 3G networks being upgraded to HSPA in 2009, postponing LTE into 2012
Verizon Wireless is LTE first mover with trials in 2009 and commercial deployment in 2010
Sprint using Clearwire mobile WiMAX network for 4G starting in 2009
Vodafone deploying HSPA in 2009 and plans LTE in 2012
KDDI announced LTE while UQ Communications 4G mobile WiMAX network in late 2009
Korea Telecom using mobile WiMAX network for 4G while testing LTE
NTT DoCoMo is currently testing LTE and deploying EPC and IMS to offer commercial Super 3G services beginning in 2010
Other 4G first movers include Telstra Australia, TeliaSonera and Telenor
NTT docomo
Super 3G/LTE
GSM/HSDPA
LTE
10/28/09
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12. Next Generation Radio Technologies are Coming
Source: Yankee Group – September 2009
10/28/09
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13. 4G Service Providers Need
Spectrum
Substantial spectrum to deliver true mobile broadband experience
Radio Network
Open, standards based base stations, radio access network to deliver multi-megabit speeds to the end user.
Backhaul
High Capacity Ethernet links to connect the radio network to the packet core, the Internet and other networks.
So what do we do about this capacity crunch?
In my view, the only way to -- and failing to deliver on any one of these prongs will leave us where we started – is this:
We need a lot of spectrum
A next generation OFDM based technology
An all IP core network and infrastructure that enables us to deliver a lot of data at a low price
And devices with embedded chipsets that enable devices to take advantage of the speeds and capacity offered by a next generation network
Core Network
Open, Flat all-IP packet core network, low cost, simple, low latency, with intelligence and analytics montize rich media applications.
Devices
Wide selection of devices, including low cost, and embedded to reduce barriers to entry and make customer acquisition affordable.
10/28/09
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14. 4G is More than a Radio Access Network
IMS
Internet
Operator IP Service Domain
GERAN
E-UTRAN
eNodeB
UTRAN
BTS
NodeB
SGSN/
MME
SGW
LTE
AAA/ HSS
Overlaid
Networks
ePDG
WiFi / Femto / WiMAX 3G
PGW/
GGSN
Evolved Packet Core (EPC) drives all-IP for capital and operational efficiencies and to accelerate service innovation
10/28/09
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15. Radio Network Upgrades Alone Cannot Address Traffic Demands
Source: Yankee Group – September 2009
10/28/09
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16. 4G is Much More than a Radio Access Network
Efficiencies of Ethernet in the backhaul
Source: Yankee Group – September 2009
Massive investments needed to overcome backhaul choking-point
10/28/09
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17. Mobile Backhaul Trends
Path to 4G heralds hyper-convergence of communications, Internet, media, mobility and machine
New players are poised to capitalize on 4G and the Anywhere Network
Service providers are grappling with transformation strategies for 4G
Current market strategies are driven by competition and are not addressing market demand
Ecosystems evolving to empower the end users and disrupt status quo
Within next five years, mobile network operators have to:
Transition from TDM to packet based backhaul
Transition to fiber backhaul and microwave
Simplify backhaul connectivity with Ethernet
Unify the voice and data networks mobile networks, particularly for wireline backhaul
10/28/09
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18. 3G and 4G Mobile Network Backhaul Challenge
Over $24 billion was spent on mobile backhaul services globally in 2008
US mobile network operators spent $6.2 billion on backhaul in 2008 for 228,000 cell sites supporting an average of 10 Mbps or less of capacity
In 2012, there will be more than 300,000 cell sites in the U.S., each supporting on average 100 Mbps.
If MNOs keep throwing T1s at the problem, this would result in a backhaul bill of $82 billion. The monthly average cost per site would be about $23,000 compared to today’s average of $2,100.
MNOs need to plan RAN and backhaul together – preplanned fiber hub sites enable broad microwave coverage and lowers lifecycle costs
4G requires more fiber and microwave in the backhaul network to support high bandwidth requirements
Metro Ethernet and fiber hubbing enables node aggregation
10/28/09
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100 Mbps Ethernet Backhaul Needed to Support HSPA+ and WiMAX, More for LTE
100 Mbps Backhaul in two years
10 Mbps Backhaul in 2008
AJIS LLC?
10/28/09
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20. WiROI Model for LTE Backhaul
10/28/09
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21. Future Wireless Network Architecture Conclusion
Mobile Internet presents tremendous opportunities for those who transform to address its demands
Service providers must embrace the Mobile Internet and 4G or perish
A holistic approach towards technology evolution is critical in the run up to 4G
Service providers must drive transformation into their company culture and with employee incentives to change
Focus on Backhaul and Evolved Packet Core in the Transition to 4G to Optimize the Mobile Internet User Experience
10/28/09
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22. Questions? www.wireless2020.net Berge Ayvazian 617 504-6141
Randall Schwartz
Roberta Wiggins
Haig Sarkissian
04/01/09
10/28/09
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